Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[Old Man Willow]

Latest Rassmusen Survey:
Approval: 47%
Disapproval: 52%
This is slight drop from the last survey, however these are still solid numbers for a divisive incumbent President.

They are from a completely discredited and garbage pollster.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Trump's at 40.1% in the polling aggregate at 538.  We're now less than two weeks from the point in time where Carter went as low as 40.0% in his polling aggregate at the equivalent time in his presidency.  So Trump could conceivably soon be able to say that at least one other president was less popular than him at this point in his presidency.

Carter is indeed the best historical analogy anyone could use for Trump, minus the sociopathy and pathological lying.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Trump's at 40.1% in the polling aggregate at 538.  We're now less than two weeks from the point in time where Carter went as low as 40.0% in his polling aggregate at the equivalent time in his presidency.  So Trump could conceivably soon be able to say that at least one other president was less popular than him at this point in his presidency.

Carter is indeed the best historical analogy anyone could use for Trump, minus the sociopathy and pathological lying.

And the fact that they aren't comparable whatsoever as human beings.

[Brittain33]

Trump's at 40.1% in the polling aggregate at 538.  We're now less than two weeks from the point in time where Carter went as low as 40.0% in his polling aggregate at the equivalent time in his presidency.  So Trump could conceivably soon be able to say that at least one other president was less popular than him at this point in his presidency.

Carter is indeed the best historical analogy anyone could use for Trump, minus the sociopathy and pathological lying.

And the fact that they aren't comparable whatsoever as human beings.

Carter:Trump::Coakley:Moore

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup weekly:

Approve 41 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Bit of an uptick for Trump after several very stable weeks.

[BudgieForce]

That in line with his other Gallup numbers. He continues to be super stable.

[LimoLiberal]

Gallup weekly:

Approve 41 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Bit of an uptick for Trump after several very stable weeks.

This is Trump's best number in Gallup since late May 2017. Interesting, as the 538 average shows his approval trending slightly downwards.

[Virginiá]

Now that's a weekly number that I'd like to see the daily ones for. It would suggest that he got one or more with at least 42%, based on how the daily polls used to jump around. Maybe even 43%.

[Tintrlvr]

Gallup weekly:

Approve 41 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Bit of an uptick for Trump after several very stable weeks.

This is Trump's best number in Gallup since late May 2017. Interesting, as the 538 average shows his approval trending slightly downwards.

Given the major methodology change, we can't really compare Gallup's old and new polls.

[KingSweden]

That in line with his other Gallup numbers. He continues to be super stable.

[GeorgiaModerate]

icitizen, March 22-April 4, 800 adults (previous poll March 8-21)

URL given is https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.s3.amazonaws.com/polls/20180409_icitizen_national.pdf, but I get a certificate error when I click on this.

Approve 38 (-4)
Disapprove 62 (+4)

[KingSweden]

icitizen, March 22-April 4, 800 adults (previous poll March 8-21)

URL given is https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.s3.amazonaws.com/polls/20180409_icitizen_national.pdf, but I get a certificate error when I click on this.

Approve 38 (-4)
Disapprove 62 (+4)

Unrated by 538, so May be of dubious quality regardless of its results being in line with national numbers

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Rasmussen 4/9:

Approve 48%
Disapprove 52%

[Greedo punched first]

SurveyUSA (Ohio). 41% approve, 51% disapprove, 8% not sure. Trump is underwater in the latest poll of Ohio.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Harvard Institute of Politics Spring 2018 youth poll, March 8-25, 2631 adults age 18-29 only

Approve 25
Disapprove 72

(No change from their Fall 2017 poll.)  Other items:

Generic Congressional ballot: 69 D, 28 R (D+41) -- change from 65/33

37% say they will definitely be voting, compared to 23% in 2014 and 31% in 2010.  This includes 51% of young Democrats and 36% of young Republicans.  In 2014, it was 28% of Ds and 31% of Rs; in 2010, it was 35% of Ds and 41% of Rs.

Additional details at http://iop.harvard.edu/spring-2018-poll.

[KingSweden]

....

D+41?!

[Sorenroy]

Harvard Institute of Politics Spring 2018 youth poll, March 8-25, 2631 adults age 18-29 only

Approve 25
Disapprove 72

(No change from their Fall 2017 poll.)  Other items:

Generic Congressional ballot: 69 D, 28 R (D+41) -- change from 65/33

What could account for the nine point swing on the congressional ballot with steady approval numbers? I don't think we've seen that trend in polls of the general population over that span of time. What gives?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Harvard Institute of Politics Spring 2018 youth poll, March 8-25, 2631 adults age 18-29 only

Approve 25
Disapprove 72

(No change from their Fall 2017 poll.)  Other items:

Generic Congressional ballot: 69 D, 28 R (D+41) -- change from 65/33

What could account for the nine point swing on the congressional ballot with steady approval numbers? I don't think we've seen that trend in polls of the general population over that span of time. What gives?

Gun control support following Parkland, perhaps?

[LimoLiberal]

Rasmussen 4/10

Approve - 48
Disapprove - 51 (-1)

We're in a bit of a polling drought right now.

[pbrower2a]

Harvard Institute of Politics Spring 2018 youth poll, March 8-25, 2631 adults age 18-29 only

Approve 25
Disapprove 72

(No change from their Fall 2017 poll.)  Other items:

Generic Congressional ballot: 69 D, 28 R (D+41) -- change from 65/33

37% say they will definitely be voting, compared to 23% in 2014 and 31% in 2010.  This includes 51% of young Democrats and 36% of young Republicans.  In 2014, it was 28% of Ds and 31% of Rs; in 2010, it was 35% of Ds and 41% of Rs.

Additional details at http://iop.harvard.edu/spring-2018-poll.

The young adults of our time must see little to gain from right-wing economics. Moist either have crappy jobs or huge student loan debt, and quite possibly both. The Millennial Generation of Howe and Strauss (born mostly in the latter two decades of the twentieth century) are much more likely to be renters than home-owners. Renters face a capitalist that they rarely find the hero for innovation: a landlord. That's before I mention the licit loan-sharks such as payday lenders and high-interest used-car dealerships.

A general rule of political history is that creditors tend toward the Right, and debtors toward the Left. Large-scale creditors want their debtors to pay back in scarce funds -- the proverbial pound of flesh -- and have an interest in deflationary economics. Debtors prefer inflation and an over-heated economy to ease the payment of their debts. The optimum for moderate conservatism is small-scale creditors who own savings, insurance policies, or perhaps a small-scale mutual fund; such people want an economy vibrant enough to prevent some meltdown that will cause small creditors to have to dip into savings or sell off assets in a hard time. 

Add to this, the Millennial Generation is the best-educated in American history, which makes it much less amenable to the far-reaching anti-intellectualism of Donald Trump that goes beyond criticism of wayward  professors and creative people to the typical K-12 teacher. This generation largely rejects right-wing religion, a key constituency of Movement Conservatism that sprouted under Reagan and rots under Trump.

No President has so shaped American economic life to fit a mirror-image of Marxism, an ideology that praises exploitation, economic inequality, mass insecurity, elite indulgence, and the ravaging of resources. Young adults who have read Orwell after the demise of Communism see a slogan such as "Make America Great Again" for the result more than for the promise. Trump's language is just another form of Newspeak, and the President acts more like the sort of dictator who usually dominates the political life of some distant country (except perhaps Cuba or Haiti). Young adults have the most to lose should the Trump Presidency become the norm in American politics. 

[LimoLiberal]

Quinnipiac finds Trump at the highest point in their poll since January 2017.

Approve - 41
Disapprove - 52

No generic ballot.

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/983775108132167680

I think Democrats/Liberals are in a bubble about Trump. It seems like that he's getting more unpopular every day with more scandals and more chips falling.

In reality, he's reached his highest point since very early 2017 in two recent polls (Gallup and Quinnipiac).

No, that does not mean he's popular. No, that does not mean the blue wave is over. No, that does not mean he will be president for life.

But he is reaching his best point in many many months currently. Even in the face of seemingly endless scandals. And I see very few democratic partisans acknowledging that and entertaining why.

[BudgieForce]

Hes on an upswing, and soon enough he'll be back on a downswing. As Ive noted multiple times, he is never very far from his average. About 40% of the country approves of him and about 54% of the country disproves of him. None of these "best since early 2017" polls from Gallup and Quinnipiac dispute that. His numbers dont actually change anymore, just response rates.

[Virginiá]

I think Democrats/Liberals are in a bubble about Trump. It seems like that he's getting more unpopular every day with more scandals and more chips falling.

He's still unpopular. I don't know how many people here routinely blow off these polls as fake or whatever, which would be that bubble syndrome you're speaking of. I certainly don't really doubt these. I do have questions of why these people seem to have less issues with him, but I'm not sure if there are answers.

Either way, the only times where it really concerns me is before elections, so each November until he is out of office. As it stands now, the generic ballot seems to be operating in such a way that he doesn't need to be in the low-mid 30s to get a blowout, which in retrospect seems reasonable, since even Obama wasn't that unpopular in 2010 and Republicans still rode a wave back to power. In fact, Obama was more unpopular in 2014 but Republicans had a smaller PV majority than when Obama was more popular in 2010.

Edit: Also, what superbudgie1582 said. I'd love it if people maintained consistently negative views of a man who deserves no more than that, but he is bound to swing back and forth. If he spends half of 2018 on an upswing that sees him slightly less unpopular, but then swings back to being unpopular (repeat several times before 2020), what difference does it make? The real problem for Democrats would be if he started regularly crossing 50% approval in numerous major polls and remained there for long periods of time.

[LimoLiberal]

Hes on an upswing, and soon enough he'll be back on a downswing. As Ive noted multiple times, he is never very far from his average. About 40% of the country approves of him and about 54% of the country disproves of him. None of these "best since early 2017" polls from Gallup and Quinnipiac dispute that. His numbers dont actually change anymore, just response rates.

Actually, no.