European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Tender Branson]

Norbert Hofer just said that he's not "opposed in principle" that Strache takes his EU parliament seat.

Said Hofer: "Fact is that Strache received an enormous amount of preference votes, enabling him to take the seat. It is HIS decision."

[YL]

Northern Ireland first count was

Anderson (Sinn Féin) 126,951
Dodds (DUP) 124,991
Long (Alliance) 105,928
Eastwood (SDLP) 78,589
Allister (TUV) 62,021
Kennedy (UUP) 53,052
Bailey (Green) 12,471
Hill (UKIP) 5,115
Morrice (Ind) 1,719
McCann (Ind) 948
Bhogal (Con) 662 why do they bother?

Quota 143,112, 3 seats

Awful result for the UUP and rather disappointing for Sinn Féin, stunningly good for Alliance.

It's fairly obvious from that who is going to get elected, but the second count eliminated the bottom five candidates, at which point Kennedy was next out (as I say, an awful result for the UUP) with his transfers electing Dodds.  The third count is

Dodds (DUP) 155,422
Anderson (Sinn Féin) 128,190
Long (Alliance) 122,263
Eastwood (SDLP) 82,101
Allister (TUV) 79,540

So Dodds has a surplus of 12,310 which will presumably put Allister ahead of Eastwood, and Eastwood's transfers will then elect Long and Anderson.

[DavidB.]

Norbert Hofer just said that he's not "opposed in principle" that Strache takes his EU parliament seat.

Said Hofer: "Fact is that Strache received an enormous amount of preference votes, enabling him to take the seat. It is HIS decision."

Which seems sensible when so many people voted for him after Ibizagate, showing a big middle finger to the ÖVP and the establishment. Really happy with this result.

[jaichind]

Impressive result for PiS in Poland.  Did not think they will win with that sort of margin.

[Walmart_shopper]

Norbert Hofer just said that he's not "opposed in principle" that Strache takes his EU parliament seat.

Said Hofer: "Fact is that Strache received an enormous amount of preference votes, enabling him to take the seat. It is HIS decision."

So at this point the FPO is trying to toxify themselves enough that they're shut out of government for two decades instead 9f one.

[YL]

We now have stage 4 in Northern Ireland:

Dodds (DUP) elected
Anderson (SF) 128,200.5
Long (Alliance) 123,917
Allister (TUV) 89,854
Eastwood (SDLP) 82413.5 eliminated

Eastwood's transfers will now elect Anderson and Long.  Alliance gain from UUP.

Confirmed: stage 5 is

Dodds already elected
Long 170,370 elected
Anderson 152,436.5 elected
Allister 90,079

Impressive for Long to be elected ahead of Anderson.

[Tender Branson]

Almost all postal ballots are counted in Austria, only Vorarlberg is missing.

Turnout will be 60% (+15).

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Luxembourg

Democratic Party: +6.67% with 21.44% of the vote

CSV: -16.55% with 21.1%.

The Greens: +3.9% with 18.91%.

LSAP: +0.44% with 12.19%.

ADR: +2.51% 10.04%.

Pirate Party: +3.47% with 7.7%.

The Left: -0.93% with 4.83%

Volt: (new) with 2.11%

Communists: -0.35% with 1.14%

Conservatives: (new) with 0.53%

horrendous result for CSV there, and first time they've ever lost the plurality. DP got a good result from running a former child celebrity, Monica Semedo.

[YL]

Only Dublin has any counts declared yet in Ireland, north or south.

Count 7, 4 seats to be elected but the last candidate elected won't take their seat unless/until Brexit happens, quota 72,790

Cuffe (Green) 64,853
Fitzgerald (FG) 59,448
Andrews (FF) 51,997
Daly (Ind 4 Change) 43,400
Boylan (SF) 40,045
Gannon (Soc Dem) 21,002
White (Lab) 18,942
Durkan (FG) 16,733
Brien (PBP) 11,730
Higgins (Ind) 11,434
O'Doherty (Ind) 8,661
Gilroy (Ind) 8,511
Harrold (PBP) 5,607 eliminated

Still quite a lot of eliminations to go.  I assume Cuffe and Fitzgerald will be in and it may be between Daly and Andrews for who is elected third and fourth.

(RTE results link, which covers Northern Ireland as well: https://www.rte.ie/news/elections-2019/results/#/european )

Now up to 11 counts and still no-one elected.

Cuffe (Green) 69,282
Fitzgerald (FG) 61,528
Andrews (FF) 53,980
Daly (Ind 4 Change) 48,559
Boylan (SF) 42,873
Gannon (SD) 24,051
White (Lab) 20,905
Durkan (FG) 17,480
Brien (PBP) 14,358 eliminated

Cuffe and Fitzgerald should be elected fairly soon now, I would think.  Daly has pulled away a bit from Boylan and narrowed the gap on Andrews.

[YL]

Count 1 in Midlands-North-West (Ireland)

4 seats, quota 118,986

McGuinness (FG) 134,630 elected
Flanagan (Ind) 85,034
Carthy (SF) 77,619
Walsh (FG) 64,500
Casey (Ind) 56,650
McHugh (Green) 51,019
Smith (FF) 42,814
Rabbitte (FF) 30,220
Eames (Ind) 15,991
Hannigan (Lab) 12,378
Brennan (PBP) 8,130
O'Dowd (Renua) 6,897
O'Connor (Ind) 3,132
Mahapatra (Ind) 2,450
Greene (Direct Democracy Ireland) 1,352
Miller (Ind) 1,322
Mulcahy (Ind) 789

This could take some time.

South still doesn't have first count figures.

[Velasco]

Has anyone posted the Spanish results? Right now PSOE is the largest socialdemocratic party in Europe. That's something if you consider that few years ago there was people speculating on the PSOE as the new PASOK

[Vosem]

Could the EU parliament vote and reject Strache‘s seat if he takes it ?

The last EU parliament featured representatives from literal Nazi parties like the NPD and Chrysi Avgi, and plenty of representatives from random corrupt testimonial parties, so I really don't think H.C. Strache is going to be where they draw the line.

[Diouf]

I have made a polling average of the last polls from the three pollsters, who have continously polled on the EP question (Norstat, Epinion & Megafon). YouGov had a poll today in BT, but the percentages combined to 103,5%, so that shows the seriousness with which even the pollsters treat this election.
Below I will make the distribution of seats among the electoral alliances and parties in the order the polling average predicts. I have tried to name the expected MEPs. Denmark have 13 seats (14 if UK leave). I have also shown those who are closest to a seat (15-18) The percentage at the end is the D'Hondt coefficient for that seat.

1. Centre-left Alliance (1st Social Democrat. Incumbent MEP Jeppe Kofod) 32.4%
2. Government Alliance (1st Liberal. Current MP Søren Gade) 28.2%
3. Centre-left Alliance (2nd Social Democrat. Incumbent MEP Christel Schaldemose). 16.2%
4. DPP (1st DPP. Current MP Peter Kofod) 14.7%
5. Government Alliance (2nd Liberal. Incumbent MEP Morten Løkkegaard) 14.1%
6. Far Left Alliance (1st People's Movement against EU. Incumbent MEP Rina Ronja Kari) 12.7%
7. Green Alliance (1st Social Liberal. Incumbent MEP Morten Helveg Petersen) 12.0%
8. Centre-left Alliance (1st SPP. Incumbent MEP Margrethe Auken) 10.8%
9. Government Alliance (3rd Liberal. Probably farmer & local councillor Asger Christensen/communicator Linea Søgaard-Lidell or business student & regional councillor Bergur Løkke Rasmussen) 9.4%
10. Centre-left Alliance (3rd Social Democrat. Likely Ph.D fellow Niels Fuglsang) 8.1%
11. DPP (2nd DPP. Incumbent MEP Anders Vistisen) 7.4%
12. Government Alliance (1st Conservative. Business woman Pernille Weiss) 7.1%
13. Centre-left Alliance (4th Social Democrat. Likely deputy union leader Marianne Vind) 6.5%

14. Far Left Alliance (1st Red-Green. Current MP Nikolaj Villumsen) 6.4%

15. Green Alliance (2nd Social Liberal. City councillor Karen Melchior or former MP Nadeem Farooq) 6.0%
16. Government Alliance (4th Liberal. Probably farmer & local councillor Asger Christensen/communicator Linea Søgaard-Lidell or business student & regional councillor Bergur Løkke Rasmussen) 5.6%
17. Centre-left Alliance (2nd SPP. Current MP Karsten Hønge will probably win the seat, but prefer to stay as MP, so it would go to former mayor Kirstine Bille or former deputy leader Peter Westermann) 5.4%
18. DPP (3rd DPP. Current MP Pia Adelsteen) 4.9%.

The personal votes are now counted, so we know all the MEPs. I have also calculated the order.

1 Centre-left Alliance (1st Social Democrat. Incumbent MEP Jeppe Kofod with 188 757 personal votes)
2 Government Alliance (1st Liberal. Incumbent MEP Morten Løkkegaard with 207 558 personal votes)
3 Centre-left Alliance (1st SPP. Incumbent MEP Margrethe Auken with 199 522 personal votes)
4 Government Alliance (2nd Liberal. MP Søren Gade with 201 626 personal votes)
5 Green Alliance (1st Social Liberal. Incumbent MEP Morten Helveg Petersen with 97 667 personal votes)
6 Centre-left Alliance (2nd Social Democrat. Incumbent MEP Christel Schaldemose with 65 179 personal votes)
7 DPP (1st DPP. MP Peter Kofod with 119 408 personal votes)
8 Government Alliance (3rd Liberal. Farmer and local councillor Asger Christensen with 31 303 personal votes)
9 Far Left Alliance (1st Red-Green. MP Nikolaj Villumsen with 50 657 personal votes)
10 Centre-left Alliance (3rd Social Democrat. Ph.d fellow Niels Fuglsang with 29 444 personal votes)
11 Government Alliance (1st Conservative. Business woman Pernille Weiss with 80 140 personal votes)
12 Centre-left Alliance (2nd SPP. MP Karsten Hænge wins the seat with 19 687 personal votes, but will not take the seat. Instead the 21-year old economics student Kira Marie Peter-Hansen will become one of the youngest MEPs as she was 3rd with 15 765 personal votes)
13 Green Alliance (2nd Social Liberal. Copenhagen City councillor Karen Melchior with 17 292 personal votes)

14 Government Alliance (4th Liberal. Communicator Linea Søgaard-Linell with 24 145 personal votes)

Social Democrat Marianne Vind was next in line for a seat.
The polls correctly predicted 11 of 14 seats for the parties with DPP, People's Movement against EU and Social Democrats missing seats, which went to the three parties next in line according to polls (SPP, Social Liberals, Liberals). My personal predictions of the candidates went quite well. I was surprised that Liberal lead candidate Morten Løkkegaard managed to beat Søren Gade in personal votes. Also I didn't see the young SPPer coming, but apparently she had strong SPP Youth support, and lead candidate Margrethe Auken won so many votes that third place was quite cheap.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

So for which countries we are still waiting? Sweden?

[Antonio the Sixth]

The list I voted for (Hamon's Génération.s) won 3.3%. That's better than I expected honestly.

And in Italy?

It's illegal to vote in two different countries for European elections.

If I'd voted in Italy I guess I would have voted for the "united" leftist list, which got 1.7% (which is a stunningly bad result even by the standards of the Italian left). Or possibly Bonino's list to own the Euroskeptics, although she's way to my right economically (it got 3%).

[Tender Branson]

Final Austria result:

34.55% ÖVP (+7.6%)
23.89% SPÖ (-0.2%)
17.20% FPÖ (-2.5%)
14.08% Greens (-0.4%)
  8.44% NEOS (+0.3%)
  1.04% Europa (+1.0%)
  0.80% KPÖ (+0.8%)

Seats: 7 ÖVP (+2), 5 SPÖ (n.c.), 3 FPÖ (-1), 2 Greens (-1), 1 NEOS (n.c.)

The 19th seat after Brexit would go to the Greens.

Turnout: 60% (+15%)

Austria voted: 52% Right (+1%), 40% Left (-1%), 8% Centrist-Liberal (n.c.)

Incredible how accurate the 1st projection was when polls closed.

https://wahl19.bmi.gv.at/index.html

[Vern]

All this different parties... I know none of them

[Tender Branson]

All this different parties... I know none of them

Well, for US starters take a look here: www.election-results.eu

The different parties are all lined up under umbrella groups in the EU parliament, with Social Democrats, Greens, Leftists and Liberals all roughly what Democrats are in the US. While EPP, ECR, EFDD, ENF parties are mostly what you can refer to as Republicans (but only ECR, EFDD and ENF are Trumpish, while the EPP is moderately conservative).

As you can see, the blocks split down to ca. 48% "Center-Left-Liberal" vs. 47% "Center-Right-Conservative-FarRight" and another 5% others or newly elected members (who will choose sides soon, or not).

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The list I voted for (Hamon's Génération.s) won 3.3%. That's better than I expected honestly.

And in Italy?

It's illegal to vote in two different countries for European elections.

If I'd voted in Italy I guess I would have voted for the "united" leftist list, which got 1.7% (which is a stunningly bad result even by the standards of the Italian left). Or possibly Bonino's list to own the Euroskeptics, although she's way to my right economically (it got 3%).

It's been pretty disastrous across the board for the True Left - Melenchon's bunch humbled, Podemos crushed (Iglesias has got to be thinking of resigning, no?), Die Linke recedes, Sinn Fein wiped out, Dutch Socialists gone, Austrians, Polish and Italians nowhere to be seen, Syriza hit hard, Czech Communists on death's door etc.

[Vern]

All this different parties... I know none of them

Well, for US starters take a look here: www.election-results.eu

The different parties are all lined up under umbrella groups in the EU parliament, with Social Democrats, Greens, Leftists and Liberals all roughly what Democrats are in the US. While EPP, ECR, EFDD, ENF parties are mostly what you can refer to as Republicans (but only ECR, EFDD and ENF are Trumpish, while the EPP is moderately conservative).

As you can see, the blocks split down to ca. 48% "Center-Left-Liberal" vs. 47% "Center-Right-Conservative-FarRight" and another 5% others or newly elected members (who will choose sides soon, or not).

Thank you.

[swl]

I notice that the current EFDD group only has MEPs from 3 countries (Brexit Party, 5 Stars and AfD) They need 7 countries to form a group again. Not certain they will be able to do it.

[DavidB.]

I notice that the current EFDD group only has MEPs from 3 countries (Brexit Party, 5 Stars and AfD) They need 7 countries to form a group. Not certain they will be able to do it.

AfD will go to EAPN. EFDD's fate is very uncertain. Farage hates Le Pen but can't join ECR either (Tories).

[Velasco]

The list I voted for (Hamon's Génération.s) won 3.3%. That's better than I expected honestly.

And in Italy?

It's illegal to vote in two different countries for European elections.

If I'd voted in Italy I guess I would have voted for the "united" leftist list, which got 1.7% (which is a stunningly bad result even by the standards of the Italian left). Or possibly Bonino's list to own the Euroskeptics, although she's way to my right economically (it got 3%).

It's been pretty disastrous across the board for the True Left - Melenchon's bunch humbled, Podemos crushed (Iglesias has got to be thinking of resigning, no?), Die Linke recedes, Sinn Fein wiped out, Dutch Socialists gone, Austrians, Polish and Italians nowhere to be seen, Syriza hit hard, Czech Communists on death's door etc.

The case of Podemos should be treated with the founders on the psychotherapist's couch. Pablo Iglesias has many faults, but to be honest it has to be said: a) Podemos and Iglesias are inextricably linked b) Iglesias is a man of remarkable talent who managed to save UP from disaster in the last general elections. Actually Iglesias was a dead man at the campaign start, but his good performance in debates and a turn in the last week of campaign saved his face in April. Certainly UP lost ground, but 14% of the vote and 42 seats was a result better than polls predicted. However Pablo Iglesias was not running in local, regional and EP elections. Podemos collapsed this Sunday (meanwhile his rival got a remarkable result in Madrid)  I think that Podemos does not make sense without the charismatic leader. Maybe Podemos won't be relevant anymore and the Spanish alternative left needs a process of refoundation. While the True Left crashes in Europe, the good results of green parties and Fridays for Future give me some hope. Greens have never been relevant in Spain or Italy. However, in the case of Spain, the platform of Más Madrid incorporated a lot of environmentalist elements, besides feminism and other things. Perhaps this the path to follow...

[Former President tack50]

The list I voted for (Hamon's Génération.s) won 3.3%. That's better than I expected honestly.

And in Italy?

It's illegal to vote in two different countries for European elections.

If I'd voted in Italy I guess I would have voted for the "united" leftist list, which got 1.7% (which is a stunningly bad result even by the standards of the Italian left). Or possibly Bonino's list to own the Euroskeptics, although she's way to my right economically (it got 3%).

It's been pretty disastrous across the board for the True Left - Melenchon's bunch humbled, Podemos crushed (Iglesias has got to be thinking of resigning, no?), Die Linke recedes, Sinn Fein wiped out, Dutch Socialists gone, Austrians, Polish and Italians nowhere to be seen, Syriza hit hard, Czech Communists on death's door etc.

The case of Podemos should be treated with the founders on the psychotherapist's couch. Pablo Iglesias has many faults, but to be honest it has to be said: a) Podemos and Iglesias are inextricably linked b) Iglesias is a man of remarkable talent who managed to save UP from disaster in the last general elections. Actually Iglesias was a dead man at the campaign start, but his good performance in debates and a turn in the last week of campaign saved his face in April. Certainly UP lost ground, but 14% of the vote and 42 seats was a result better than polls predicted. However Pablo Iglesias was not running in local, regional and EP elections. Podemos collapsed this Sunday (meanwhile his rival got a remarkable result in Madrid)  I think that Podemos does not make sense without the charismatic leader. Maybe Podemos won't be relevant anymore and the Spanish alternative left needs a process of refoundation. While the True Left crashes in Europe, the good results of green parties and Fridays for Future give me some hope. Greens have never been relevant in Spain or Italy. However, in the case of Spain, the platform of Más Madrid incorporated a lot of environmentalist elements, besides feminism and other things. Perhaps this the path to follow...

Eh, while Más Madrid did incorporate environmentalist elements and was successful, Compromís also did that (with more credibility and longer running than MM) and saw a decrease in the Valencian elections, a really bad result in the general elections and only held Valencia's mayor by like 250 votes I think.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

In a nugget of positive news from Italy, it seems both Mussolinis who were running won’t make it (article in Italian): https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.tgcom24.mediaset.it/articolo/132/3211132.html