Polish Politics and Elections

[swl]

In the first round Duda outperformed the IPSOS exit poll by ~2%.

[jaichind]

The behavior of both Duda and Trzaskowsk seems to suggest both sides think Duda will win by a tiny margin.

[BigSerg]

Trzaskowsk camp claims that the election has "irregularities" and will file election protests.  Duda is asking to meet with Trzaskowsk  tonight.

Losers always say "there are irregularities"

[swl]

Trzaskowsk camp claims that the election has "irregularities" and will file election protests.  Duda is asking to meet with Trzaskowsk  tonight.

Of course it has irregularities, the postal voting was a bit of a joke. Some people had their postal vote done by family members, which is not supposed to happen. I am pretty sure on both side we will find a suspicious number of 90 years old in their deathbed who somehow participated in this election.

[Walmart_shopper]

In the first round Duda outperformed the IPSOS exit poll by ~2%.

He also underperformed his exits by about 2% in 2015. It is going to be a long night and probably week.

[jaichind]

Trzaskowsk camp claims that the election has "irregularities" and will file election protests.  Duda is asking to meet with Trzaskowsk  tonight.

Of course it has irregularities, the postal voting was a bit of a joke. Some people had their postal vote done by family members, which is not supposed to happen. I am pretty sure on both side we will find a suspicious number of 90 years old in their deathbed who somehow participated in this election.

Sounds just like vote harvesting in CA.

[Tender Branson]

I’m calling it:

52.1% DUDE
47.9% other guy

Which would be the middle of my two predictions I made earlier today.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Let's wait and see, but this is concerning.

[jaichind]

I’m calling it:

52.1% DUDE
47.9% other guy

Which would be the middle of my two predictions I made earlier today.

The case for a result like this would be the fact that exit polls Duda winning  Bosak voters 52-48.  I find this hard to believe and most likely the result of the small sample size.  But if exit polls has Duda winning 50.4-49.6 with Duda winning  Bosak voters 52-48 then in reality Duda will most likely win by significant margin, something like 52-48 or even greater.

[Tender Branson]

I’m calling it:

52.1% DUDE
47.9% other guy

Which would be the middle of my two predictions I made earlier today.

The case for a result like this would be the fact that exit polls Duda winning  Bosak voters 52-48.  I find this hard to believe and most likely the result of the small sample size.  But if exit polls has Duda winning 50.4-49.6 with Duda winning  Bosak voters 52-48 then in reality Duda will most likely win by significant margin, something like 52-48 or even greater.

Exit polls are exit polls, we need to see the real results.

Anyway, Warsaw Mayor Rafael reminds me of John Kerry 2004.

Duda = Bush.

[jaichind]

Trzaskowski campaign manager Tomczyk, speaking to a local broadcaster, suggested that votes coming in from abroad could yet turn the tide and brushed off talk of an imminent Duda-Trzaskowski meeting.

[Tender Branson]

Duda ahead in the crucial swing state Ohio Mazowieckie:

https://tvn24.pl/wybory-prezydenckie-2020

Turnout was ca. 69% Poland-wide.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway, final turnout change map would certainly look to favor Trzaskowski, except who knows how much of the northern bias is because of vacationers.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Let's wait and see, but this is concerning.

Everything in Poland is concerning

[jaichind]

When will any real results appear in

https://wybory.gov.pl/prezydent20200628/pl/wyniki/pl

[Double Carpet]

Not until midnight local time I think?

There will be a "dump" of results with about 50% counted, unlike in most countries where you can follow the results by precinct in real time as they are counted.

Do posters think that the Polish reporting model allows greater room for rigging the election...?

[Double Carpet]

Apparently midnight local time is an updated exit poll only (exit poll or based on partial vote count?) and NO official results will be released until the vote count is complete.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Apparently midnight local time is an updated exit poll only (exit poll or based on partial vote count?) and NO official results will be released until the vote count is complete.

That seems... suspicious. Is that the usual practice?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Late exit poll will be up shortly after midnight, which is 13 minutes from now.

It can be pretty interesting, given the last hour and a half of voting was not included in the exit poll published when the polls closed.

Sorry if this was mentioned already, but turnout is projected, per an early exit poll, at 68,9%, which would be a record.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Just to compare the turnout from previous direct presidential elections:

1990: 60.6%/53.4%
1995: 64.7%/68.2%
2000: 61.08% (no runoff)
2005: 49.6%/51.0%
2010: 54.94%/55.31%
2015: 48.96%/55.34%

[Oryxslayer]

From EUElects liveblog:

Andrzej Duda won in Canada. He recieved 4720, while Trzaskowski recieved 3119. Despite this fact, Duda won only in Toronto, while Trzaskowski in Vancouver, Montreal and Ottawa.

[jaichind]

Updated exit poll shows Duda margin growing

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1282434030923911173

[ON Progressive]

From EUElects liveblog:

Andrzej Duda won in Canada. He recieved 4720, while Trzaskowski recieved 3119. Despite this fact, Duda won only in Toronto, while Trzaskowski in Vancouver, Montreal and Ottawa.

I thought the overseas vote was supposed to be pro-Trazskowski?

[Oryxslayer]

From EUElects liveblog:

Andrzej Duda won in Canada. He recieved 4720, while Trzaskowski recieved 3119. Despite this fact, Duda won only in Toronto, while Trzaskowski in Vancouver, Montreal and Ottawa.

I thought the overseas vote was supposed to be pro-Trazskowski?

It is...outside of NA.