Polish Politics and Elections

[Walmart_shopper]

Exit poll has Duda ahead 50.4-49.6

This is without foreign votes, which are expected to favor Rafał by a lot. So it could end up basically tied, alas.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

The margin of error is 1%, btw. Ipsos are saying it's too close to call.

[jaichind]

Duda claims victory.  At least based on exit polls this does not compute

[Epaminondas]

I would say Duda wins by a 50.5% to 49.5% margin.

We'll see but I would like Trzaskowski to win.

Good guess! (sadly)

[Double Carpet]

Would the exit poll model in votes abroad or not?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

It's too close to call, basically. Take a chill pill, everyone, we won't know for some time.

[Oryxslayer]

Duda claims victory.  At least based on exit polls this does not compute

Nah it does perfectly. He who gets out in front in front of the news and starts assuming the mantle of victory will begin to appear like the 'default' winner. The exits show a tight race, so best start building legitimacy now if you end up in front of the courts arguing over what votes matter or who actually won.

[Walmart_shopper]

Would the exit poll model in votes abroad or not?

No. It is also missing late votes that were heavily urban. I wouldn't be surprised to see the late exit poll have exactly the opposite numbers.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Imagine the results if Kidawa was still running, lol.

[BigSerg]

Would the exit poll model in votes abroad or not?

No. It is also missing late votes that were heavily urban. I wouldn't be surprised to see the late exit poll have exactly the opposite numbers.

It's over, stop saying stupid things.

[jaichind]

Trzaskowski  has also claimed victory

[BigSerg]

Trzaskowski  has also claimed victory

Lol, he must be desperate to steal the election.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Would the exit poll model in votes abroad or not?

No. It is also missing late votes that were heavily urban. I wouldn't be surprised to see the late exit poll have exactly the opposite numbers.

It's over, stop saying stupid things.

Thank you, random American child.

[jaichind]

Trzaskowski  has also claimed victory

Lol, he must be desperate to steal the election.

I do not think it is fair to claim either side can confidently say they have won.  As much as I want Duda to win at this stage it is not at all certain he has.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Trzaskowski  has also claimed victory

Lol, he must be desperate to steal the election.

If anybody was "stealing" the election it was the government side, using every means to help Duda, including the Postal Service distributing purely partisan propaganda.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

As a side note, I wonder if those Korwinista votes are even still there to be won by Trzaskowski. The 2019 Konfederacja vote was quite evenly spread throughout the country, which is, broadly speaking, he standard vote distribution for one of Korwin's parties. The exit poll (which I'm not sure I trust) claimed Bosak only got 64% of those voters and his vote, despite being almost identical in percentage terms (6.8 to 6.78), was much more concentrated along the Eastern border, which would indicate he brought some of the LPR genepool vote back.

Well, if you believe the exit poll breakdowns, Duda won Bosak voters 52-48 but lost 2019 Konfederacja voters 39-61...

[Epaminondas]

Trzaskowski  has also claimed victory

Lol, he must be desperate to steal the election.

Yikes, Trumpist lummoxes are so desperate for attention they even post on a Polish thread they have no clue about.
Please don't sully this good place.

[Oryxslayer]

Would the exit poll model in votes abroad or not?

No. It is also missing late votes that were heavily urban. I wouldn't be surprised to see the late exit poll have exactly the opposite numbers.

It's over, stop saying stupid things.

Thank you, random American child.

Seriously. Whenever I follow International elections, I try to do my research and get a lay of the land. Even then though I always defer to locals and avoid provoking arguments when I lack all the facts. A lot of people would do well to follow this example.

[Double Carpet]

TVP quoted DLA poll with 51.9 for Duda, not sure if that is exit poll or not.

[jaichind]

As a side note, I wonder if those Korwinista votes are even still there to be won by Trzaskowski. The 2019 Konfederacja vote was quite evenly spread throughout the country, which is, broadly speaking, he standard vote distribution for one of Korwin's parties. The exit poll (which I'm not sure I trust) claimed Bosak only got 64% of those voters and his vote, despite being almost identical in percentage terms (6.8 to 6.78), was much more concentrated along the Eastern border, which would indicate he brought some of the LPR genepool vote back.

Well, if you believe the exit poll breakdowns, Duda won Bosak voters 52-48 but lost 2019 Konfederacja voters 39-61...

Duda winning  Bosak voters 52-48 is a disaster for Duda.

[Walmart_shopper]

Would the exit poll model in votes abroad or not?

No. It is also missing late votes that were heavily urban. I wouldn't be surprised to see the late exit poll have exactly the opposite numbers.

It's over, stop saying stupid things.

Buckle up.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

OK, I decided not to watch candidates' speeches, but from what I've heard Duda outright proclaimed victory, while Trzaskowski said he believes his side will prevail at the final count. Can anybody correct me?

[Walmart_shopper]

TVP quoted DLA poll with 51.9 for Duda, not sure if that is exit poll or not.

I would have thought TVP would have tried harder than that.

[jaichind]

Trzaskowsk camp claims that the election has "irregularities" and will file election protests.  Duda is asking to meet with Trzaskowsk  tonight.

[Walmart_shopper]

OK, I decided not to watch candidates' speeches, but from what I've heard Duda outright proclaimed victory, while Trzaskowski said he believes his side will prevail at the final count. Can anybody correct me?

Dude invited Trzaskowski to the presidential palace tonight. I find that somewhat weird.