2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[KingSweden]

I think Greedo was from Clark, which is near Portland

I could’ve sworn he said via discord he was from the suburbs in Seattle. Maybe I’m misremembering or he just likes to tell different stories.

He’s definitely near Vancouver (in Washington state). He always complained about his congresswoman, Jaime Herrera Beutler, not being conservative enough for him.

TFW you’re insufficiently conservative for a 15 year old on an Internet forum

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos, May 31-June 4, 1310 RV

D 42 (nc)
R 34 (-2)

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ipsos, May 31-June 4, 1310 RV

D 42 (nc)
R 34 (-2)

Sean Trende is not getting called out enough for how he and RCP is picking and choosing when they use this poll in their CGB

[KingSweden]

Ipsos, May 31-June 4, 1310 RV

D 42 (nc)
R 34 (-2)

Sean Trende is not getting called out enough for how he and RCP is picking and choosing when they use this poll in their CGB

Sean T is a hack

[LimoLiberal]

Ipsos, May 31-June 4, 1310 RV

D 42 (nc)
R 34 (-2)

Sean Trende is not getting called out enough for how he and RCP is picking and choosing when they use this poll in their CGB

Wrong again. RCP includes the poll every week, but they don’t use the daily tracker numbers like 538. They use the Ipsos core political data report, which uses some of the data collected in the tracker and comes out weekly. Last iteration showed D+2 in the generic ballot.

[KingSweden]

Ipsos, May 31-June 4, 1310 RV

D 42 (nc)
R 34 (-2)

Sean Trende is not getting called out enough for how he and RCP is picking and choosing when they use this poll in their CGB

Wrong again. RCP includes the poll every week, but they don’t use the daily tracker numbers like 538. They use the Ipsos core political data report, which uses some of the data collected in the tracker and comes out weekly. Last iteration showed D+2 in the generic ballot.

What is the structure of “core” data? Reuters hasn’t explained how they calculate it independent from their tracker anywhere that I’ve seen

[Atlas Force]

I’d be shocked if Rossi wasn’t leading head to heads against unknowns. Call me back when the primary is over

[LimoLiberal]

Ipsos, May 31-June 4, 1310 RV

D 42 (nc)
R 34 (-2)

Sean Trende is not getting called out enough for how he and RCP is picking and choosing when they use this poll in their CGB

Wrong again. RCP includes the poll every week, but they don’t use the daily tracker numbers like 538. They use the Ipsos core political data report, which uses some of the data collected in the tracker and comes out weekly. Last iteration showed D+2 in the generic ballot.

What is the structure of “core” data? Reuters hasn’t explained how they calculate it independent from their tracker anywhere that I’ve seen

That's the mystery question.

[Politician]

I’d be shocked if Rossi wasn’t leading head to heads against unknowns. Call me back when the primary is over

[Florida Man for Crime]

Staten Island = worthless.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Staten Island = worthless.

It gave us Impractical Jokers at least.

[Hindsight was 2020]

POLITICO/Morning Consult poll D+7
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/06/poll-tariffs-us-economy-trump-628586

[GeorgiaModerate]

POLITICO/Morning Consult poll D+7
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/06/poll-tariffs-us-economy-trump-628586

Their previous poll was D+5 (42/37 vs the current 44/37)

[LimoLiberal]

UT-04:Dan Jones and Associates

http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/16872-new-poll-love-mcadams-locked-in-very-tight-race

Love (R) - 47
McAdams (D) - 43

[Politician]

UT-04:Dan Jones and Associates

http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/16872-new-poll-love-mcadams-locked-in-very-tight-race

Love (R) - 47
McAdams (D) - 43

Not too bad, race is a Tossup.

[ON Progressive]

UT-04:Dan Jones and Associates

http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/16872-new-poll-love-mcadams-locked-in-very-tight-race

Love (R) - 47
McAdams (D) - 43

Their last poll was 49-43 Love, so this is actually a tightening of the race.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Love will win imo. That district is very conservative and they have finally started liking her

[Brittain33]

Love will win imo. That district is very conservative and they have finally started liking her

Why aren’t they telling pollsters, then?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Love will win imo. That district is very conservative and they have finally started liking her

Why aren’t they telling pollsters, then?

Lol, she's been winning every poll even vs a fantastic recruit like McAdams. This district is v conservative. Yes, Love barely won in 2014, but she improved a lot in 2016 and is still winning every poll

Mcadams is winning indies 60-25 and still not winning... that just goes to show how repub this district is

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, June 3-5, 1292 registered voters.

D 44 (+2)
R 38 (-1)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Two more polls showing the Democrats regaining their edge-

YouGov

Democrats: 44% (+2)
Republicans: 38% (-1)


Rasmussen

Democrats: 45% (+2)
Republicans: 41% (-1)

[LimoLiberal]

Some good recent numbers for Democrats. But where are the live caller polls?

[Thunder98]

Generic Ballot is starting to widen up for the Dems again.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Generic Ballot is starting to widen up for the Dems again.

Same with the Trump approval average.  Both of them (on 538) have returned to their levels from around the beginning of May, after narrowing during the month.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Paging: Sean T at RCP

The Democrats lead amongst 18-21 year olds (Gen Z) in the Morning Consult poll 48-18%

Same poll, they have a 12-point edge amongst Independents