New PA Maps In Effect

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Edwards better beat the xenophobic DINO morganelli.

[Nyvin]

If they impeach the judges it's pretty much declaring political warfare across the country.

[KingSweden]

I don’t know anything about Edwards, but as much as I dislike Morganelli, he’s pretty much a lock in the primary and the GE under these lines unless someone really strong gets in the Democratic primary and a bunch of the non-Morganelli folks drop out.  I can’t really think of such a candidate atm, so we’re probably stuck with Morganelli.  On the bright side he’s probably gonna make this an easy pickup, so there’s that

As someone unfamiliar with this person - what did he do (or not do)?

He's a perennial statewide candidate who campaigned for Pat Toomey in 2016 after losing the primary for Attorney General. He's also apparently quite a fan of alt-right Gamergate garbage Ian Miles Cheong.

He’s also insanely popular in Northampton County.

Yeah, so the addition of the rest of Northampton County to the district (obviously) bolsters his chances.

Greg Edwards is a charismatic progressive pastor - Think William Barber but a bit younger and more dynamic. He's currently raised twice the amount Morganelli has (though I expect the gap to close considerably) and reportedly - meaning: anecdotally - has a pretty sophisticated ground game.

Sounds like an interesting candidate!

[Badger]

If they impeach the judges it's pretty much declaring political warfare across the country.

[Landslide Lyndon]

If they impeach the judges it's pretty much declaring political warfare across the country.

Many of the Republican senators sit at districts handily carried by Clinton. Voting for impeachment would be like signing their political death warrants.

[Virginiá]

New Pa. congressional district map could be challenged by Common Cause, NAACP on civil rights grounds

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/pennsylvania-congressional-district-map-challenge-civil-rights-naacp-common-cause-philadelphia-gerrymandering-20180221.html

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You'd think they would be fine with the current map. It's not like it'll be in effect for more than 4 years. For gods sakes.

[Virginiá]

Costello continues to be an idiot. Calls new map “racist.” Won’t call Trump that, though!

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/pennsylvania-gerrymandering-case-republicans-sue-federal-court-20180221.html?mobi=true

It helps that the NAACP is thinking about filing a racial gerrymandering lawsuit against the new map

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=282416.msg6072378#msg6072378

[Gass3268]

New Pa. congressional district map could be challenged by Common Cause, NAACP on civil rights grounds

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/pennsylvania-congressional-district-map-challenge-civil-rights-naacp-common-cause-philadelphia-gerrymandering-20180221.html

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You'd think they would be fine with the current map. It's not like it'll be in effect for more than 4 years. For gods sakes.

I actually was surprised that they didn't create a 2nd African American district in Philadelphia.

[LimoLiberal]

New Pa. congressional district map could be challenged by Common Cause, NAACP on civil rights grounds

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/pennsylvania-congressional-district-map-challenge-civil-rights-naacp-common-cause-philadelphia-gerrymandering-20180221.html

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You'd think they would be fine with the current map. It's not like it'll be in effect for more than 4 years. For gods sakes.

Yikes. Staying power of map looking shakier by the day.

[Tintrlvr]

New Pa. congressional district map could be challenged by Common Cause, NAACP on civil rights grounds

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/pennsylvania-congressional-district-map-challenge-civil-rights-naacp-common-cause-philadelphia-gerrymandering-20180221.html

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You'd think they would be fine with the current map. It's not like it'll be in effect for more than 4 years. For gods sakes.

I actually was surprised that they didn't create a 2nd African American district in Philadelphia.

It's not possible to create two black-majority districts in the Philly area without ripping apart Delaware County and also pushing into Montgomery County (and maybe not even then). I agree that they could have drawn the boundary between the two Philadelphia districts in a way that created one barely majority-black seat and another seat that was ~35% black, though, instead of the current map where one is over 60% black and the other is in the mid-20s, which, if the boundary between the two Philadelphia seats was the only thing to change, I'd be fine with. (Incidentally, though, all of Philadelphia west of Broad St is *exactly* one district, which is almost too perfect not to do in my mind, even though the court's map didn't take that approach.)

[Virginiá]

@Virginia: the only wrinkle I could possibly see this causing is forcing a stay on the new map (which would run counter to these groups’ interest!). Which would just be even more stupid. Even if Philly was redrawn to make two black seats, it wouldn’t affect people like Costello and Fitzpatrick in the slightest. It would make the Delco seat slightly more Republican, but that’s just semantics. They would merely get 38% of the vote in that new seat instead of 35%.

That is what I was thinking. Considering most black voters are Democrats, a map that elects more Democrats is already going to help them, considering the party's policy interests have aligned much more with theirs in the Obama era. I really can't help but think this will backfire on them and the party if they push it right now. That being said, I wish there was a way they could have conveyed this need to the court beforehand so it could have been incorporated into the map as it was being drawn.

[LimoLiberal]

Isn't this a clear violation of the VRA? There was two majority-minority districts with more than 50% black population that could elect the candidate of their choice, and now there's one with 60% and one with 20%. This sucker is gonna get stayed.

[Comrade Funk]

Isn't this a clear violation of the VRA? There was two majority-minority districts with more than 50% black population that could elect the candidate of their choice, and now there's one with 60% and one with 20%. This sucker is gonna get stayed.

There is something truly sad about a man dedicated to lame, generic trolling on the levels you do.

[Nyvin]

Isn't this a clear violation of the VRA? There was two majority-minority districts with more than 50% black population that could elect the candidate of their choice, and now there's one with 60% and one with 20%. This sucker is gonna get stayed.

PA-1 was 45.7% AA in the previous map.

[Oryxslayer]

For those wondering, the old PA-01 (which is what this suit rests on) was about 45% black and 37% white. PA-02, meanwhile was around 60% Black, which in some cases could be considered racial packing.

The new PA-02 is about 44% White and 25% Black. The main group to gain from this though is Philadelphia Hispanics who are now united and make up about 22% of the district, when compared to 15% in the old seat. PA-03 meanwhile is now 59% Black, and 29% white, still a safe AA seat.

Therefore both seats in both maps arguably remain very similar. The argument would have to be that Black rights to an access seat are greater than Hispanic rights to have a united district, rather then be cracked among three seats. Plus since a 45% black seat was unable to elect a representative of color - Brady a white map rep'ed the seat since time immemorial, it is going to be a hard sell to prove that the new district eliminates minority access. I don't see this case succeeding.

[Ebsy]

Even if they did succeed, it would not throw out the entire map, it would just require changes around Philly. Still, I don't see a VRA case being brought successfully before the midterms.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Funny: the GOP stay application is apparently so sloppy that it cites Nate Cohn as "Note Cohen".  https://twitter.com/adambonin/status/966493150763274240

[KingSweden]

Funny: the GOP stay application is apparently so sloppy that it cites Nate Cohn as "Note Cohen".  https://twitter.com/adambonin/status/966493150763274240

Bahahaha!

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Can this even be stayed at this point? The government already started reorganizing things to set the new districts up.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Somebody had the party registration numbers for the new districts.  Could we see those again please?

[Gass3268]

Somebody had the party registration numbers for the new districts.  Could we see those again please?

Party registration by district:



Source

[KingSweden]

Somebody had the party registration numbers for the new districts.  Could we see those again please?

Party registration by district:



Source

Imagine some of the Dem numbers here are inflated by old Demosaurs

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Somebody had the party registration numbers for the new districts.  Could we see those again please?

Party registration by district:



Source

Imagine some of the Dem numbers here are inflated by old Demosaurs

Especially in Western PA.

[Gass3268]

Somebody had the party registration numbers for the new districts.  Could we see those again please?

Party registration by district:



Source

Imagine some of the Dem numbers here are inflated by old Demosaurs

Correct, but it's the main reason Lamb has a chance in the upcoming special election. Also, look how relatively weak Democrats are in Philadelphia suburban districts that Clinton won big.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/pennsylvania-house/new-pennsylvania-map-major-boost-democrats
This might be of use to y'all.