PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose

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Who is favored to win Westmoreland?

Saccone. Lamb needs to run up huge margins in Allegheny before Westmoreland dumps if he's going to win.

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Saccone is doing well in the southern tip of Allegheny. It appears that Lamb, while making substantial gains among traditionally democrat WWC voters who supported Trump, isn't getting the same swing from more educated suburban white voters.

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For reference, here's how the AL special results came in. NYT briefly had Moore ahead, but never by much.

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Stop acting like Lamb getting precincts in Greene is incredible. Greene county only favored the GOP senate candidate by 3% in 2012, while Washington county only favored him by 4.2%. Lamb is doing well, but it's far from extraordinary.

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Whoever decided not to record precinct results for Westmoreland needs to be fired.

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Well, I guess this saves the GOP the trouble of having to defend a weak candidate like Saccone in November. Lamb would go to the new 17th and probably win, although a competent republican candidate could hit Lamb hard over issues like amnesty rather than raving about Pelosi, and likely provide a tough challenge even in a much more D friendly district.

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NYT gave up on the needle. Adds more suspense, I suppose.

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Well, I guess this saves the GOP the trouble of having to defend a weak candidate like Saccone in November. Lamb would go to the new 17th and probably win, although a competent republican candidate could hit Lamb hard over issues like amnesty rather than raving about Pelosi, and likely provide a tough challenge even in a much more D friendly district.

I think it's pretty clear immigration isn't going to be the major billy club that the GOP hopes it will be...

Saccone's website barely mentioned it. Immigration is why Trump won, in both the primaries and the general. If Saccone was running ads quoting Lamb as supporting amnesty and opposing a border wall, he'd win. Instead, he went around saying democrats hate God and America. The evangelical wing of the GOP is dying, and this district never fit that profile anyway.

A Lou Barletta style republican would win there easily.

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Well, I guess this saves the GOP the trouble of having to defend a weak candidate like Saccone in November. Lamb would go to the new 17th and probably win, although a competent republican candidate could hit Lamb hard over issues like amnesty rather than raving about Pelosi, and likely provide a tough challenge even in a much more D friendly district.

I think it's pretty clear immigration isn't going to be the major billy club that the GOP hopes it will be...

Saccone's website barely mentioned it. Immigration is why Trump won, in both the primaries and the general. If Saccone was running ads quoting Lamb as supporting amnesty and opposing a border wall, he'd win. Instead, he went around saying democrats hate God and America. The evangelical wing of the GOP is dying, and this district never fit that profile anyway.

A Lou Barletta style republican would win there easily.

Trump didn't win the popular vote.  In Congressional, Senatorial, and gubernatorial elections, candidates win by popular vote.

He did in Pennsylvania, including winning PA-18 by a huge margin. You know that's what I'm talking about here.

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Well, I guess this saves the GOP the trouble of having to defend a weak candidate like Saccone in November. Lamb would go to the new 17th and probably win, although a competent republican candidate could hit Lamb hard over issues like amnesty rather than raving about Pelosi, and likely provide a tough challenge even in a much more D friendly district.

I think it's pretty clear immigration isn't going to be the major billy club that the GOP hopes it will be...

Saccone's website barely mentioned it. Immigration is why Trump won, in both the primaries and the general. If Saccone was running ads quoting Lamb as supporting amnesty and opposing a border wall, he'd win. Instead, he went around saying democrats hate God and America. The evangelical wing of the GOP is dying, and this district never fit that profile anyway.

A Lou Barletta style republican would win there easily.

Trump didn't win the popular vote.  In Congressional, Senatorial, and gubernatorial elections, candidates win by popular vote.

He did in Pennsylvania, including winning PA-18 by a huge margin. You know that's what I'm talking about here.

The demographics for this mid-term are going to be completely different than 2016.

I'm talking about how Saccone could have won this specific district and how the GOP can win other similar Trump districts. Of course the midterm will favor democrats. The party out of the White House almost always gains. But there's no reason why republicans should lose districts where Trump won by this much.

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Within half of one percent. Good news for Lamb is that 7% of Allegheny is left.

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Well, I guess this saves the GOP the trouble of having to defend a weak candidate like Saccone in November. Lamb would go to the new 17th and probably win, although a competent republican candidate could hit Lamb hard over issues like amnesty rather than raving about Pelosi, and likely provide a tough challenge even in a much more D friendly district.

I think it's pretty clear immigration isn't going to be the major billy club that the GOP hopes it will be...

Saccone's website barely mentioned it. Immigration is why Trump won, in both the primaries and the general. If Saccone was running ads quoting Lamb as supporting amnesty and opposing a border wall, he'd win. Instead, he went around saying democrats hate God and America. The evangelical wing of the GOP is dying, and this district never fit that profile anyway.

A Lou Barletta style republican would win there easily.

Trump didn't win the popular vote.  In Congressional, Senatorial, and gubernatorial elections, candidates win by popular vote.

He did in Pennsylvania, including winning PA-18 by a huge margin. You know that's what I'm talking about here.

The demographics for this mid-term are going to be completely different than 2016.

I'm talking about how Saccone could have won this specific district and how the GOP can win other similar Trump districts. Of course the midterm will favor democrats. The party out of the White House almost always gains. But there's no reason why republicans should lose districts where Trump won by this much.

Unless, and I know this is just a crazy thought here, when people don't have a choice of someone is unpopular is Hillary Clinton, they're having more than a little bit of buyer's remorse about Trump. Couldn't think why though....

Because the economy is thriving? Because we may secure lasting peace with North Korea? The only real reasons people would have for souring on Trump are personality traits and his failure to start building the wall. Reminder that he won voters who listed immigration as their top concern by a 2:1 ratio. No other issue was so lopsided. If republicans can't win solidly pro-Trump districts, it's because they ignore the issues that made him popular.

I'm pretty sure Lamb spoke more about protectionist policies than Saccone. While that's not a recipe for success in suburbia, it is in SWPA. Democrats are learning to pick candidates that match their district. The GOP establishment, unsurprisingly, is too clueless to do likewise.

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Looks like Saccone will win the in person vote but absentees will give Lamb the final victory.

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I'm not convinced Lamb has this.  He's only 585 votes ahead with 97 percent of the vote in.

Saccone was a really horrible candidate, and Lamb was a really good one.  The race was not overly nationalized, and this area is more ancestrally Democratic than the 2016 results show.  

All of what you said is true in terms of why it's a close race to begin with, but the absentee ballots likely add at least another 1,000 to Lamb's lead. Saccone ran as a Bush republican while Lamb ran as a populist. Can't say that these are shocking results.