PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 194914 times)
Sestak
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« Reply #1725 on: March 13, 2018, 08:36:28 PM »

6K lead in Westmoreland with over 75% in. If this holds, margin will be 8K...probably not enough...
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Crumpets
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« Reply #1726 on: March 13, 2018, 08:36:35 PM »

Lamb (barely) back ahead of his benchmarks.
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Kodak
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« Reply #1727 on: March 13, 2018, 08:36:55 PM »

The needle has been removed from the NYT site.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1728 on: March 13, 2018, 08:37:09 PM »


Thank you Westmoreland
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Admiral Kizaru
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« Reply #1729 on: March 13, 2018, 08:37:17 PM »

NYT have shut off their needle lol.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1730 on: March 13, 2018, 08:37:51 PM »

Saccone will need to net 6000 votes in the rest of Westmoreland and Washington. I have no idea if it can be done.
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Pennsylvania Deplorable
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« Reply #1731 on: March 13, 2018, 08:38:02 PM »

Well, I guess this saves the GOP the trouble of having to defend a weak candidate like Saccone in November. Lamb would go to the new 17th and probably win, although a competent republican candidate could hit Lamb hard over issues like amnesty rather than raving about Pelosi, and likely provide a tough challenge even in a much more D friendly district.
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Doimper
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« Reply #1732 on: March 13, 2018, 08:38:04 PM »

So how was DDHQ able to get Westmoreland precinct data when the NYT wasn't? Bizarre.
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Sestak
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« Reply #1733 on: March 13, 2018, 08:38:29 PM »

Greene in fully 2694-1927 Saccone.
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JGibson
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« Reply #1734 on: March 13, 2018, 08:38:48 PM »

The New York Times needle just went kaput.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #1735 on: March 13, 2018, 08:39:06 PM »

The new dump of Westmoreland left it at R+12, so Saccone is still slightly behind benchmarks there as well. With 77% reporting, it's basically caught up to Allegheny. The only room for Saccone remaining is a major overperformance in the suburban parts of Washington County, which haven't reported yet, but that seems highly unlikely given the rest of the results.

I'm ready to call this for Lamb.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1736 on: March 13, 2018, 08:39:08 PM »

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TexArkana
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« Reply #1737 on: March 13, 2018, 08:39:19 PM »

Saccone will need to net 6000 votes in the rest of Westmoreland and Washington. I have no idea if it can be done.
Unless remaining areas are more pro GOP than the ones that have reported thus far, probably not. My prediction of Lamb +2 is looking dead-on at the moment.
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junior chįmp
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« Reply #1738 on: March 13, 2018, 08:39:26 PM »

Monomouth polling choked like Nate's model
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Pennsylvania Deplorable
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« Reply #1739 on: March 13, 2018, 08:39:37 PM »

NYT gave up on the needle. Adds more suspense, I suppose.
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Torrain
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« Reply #1740 on: March 13, 2018, 08:39:41 PM »

Nate Cohn

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Over all, the results do make Lamb a favorite, but it sure looks close.
The state of the race in the non-Westmoreland precincts:
Expected vote in a tie: Lamb 55.7%;
Actual vote, Lamb 56.3% percent
Turnout at 97.7% of expectations
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1741 on: March 13, 2018, 08:40:13 PM »

So how was DDHQ able to get Westmoreland precinct data when the NYT wasn't? Bizarre.

They have their own volunteers that collect that data.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1742 on: March 13, 2018, 08:40:17 PM »

So how was DDHQ able to get Westmoreland precinct data when the NYT wasn't? Bizarre.

DDHQ likes to have on the ground reports, so they probably have a guy in westmoreland county.

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BudgieForce
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« Reply #1743 on: March 13, 2018, 08:40:33 PM »

Monomouth polling choked like Nate's model

Someone here mentioned a 3 point win for Lamb as a possibility, which would be in line with Monmouths polling results.

Edit: One of monmouth's turnout models had Lamb up by 2.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1744 on: March 13, 2018, 08:40:57 PM »

Well, Greene is finished and Allegheny is at 85%. It all comes down to Washington and Westmoreland.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #1745 on: March 13, 2018, 08:41:04 PM »


The New York Times needle just went kaput.

How can they do this!
"The Needle" was our oxygen. We are dying!
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Sestak
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« Reply #1746 on: March 13, 2018, 08:41:12 PM »

Saccone I think needs at least 2-3k lead in rest of Washington.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #1747 on: March 13, 2018, 08:41:27 PM »

What the heck is going on with Washington?
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1748 on: March 13, 2018, 08:41:37 PM »

I think Lamb has it!
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1749 on: March 13, 2018, 08:41:40 PM »

Monomouth polling choked like Nate's model

Someone here mentioned a 3 point win for Lamb as a possibility, which would be in line with Monmouths polling results.

John Couvillon (@WinWithJMC) has been projecting 51-48 Lamb for a while tonight.
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