PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose

[LimoLiberal]

Election results:  https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/13/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-house-special-election.html

[Keep cool-idge]

I’m quite surprised at the margin that Saccone is up by. If the dems lose this by 10 or more it could spell doom for Manchin-Casey-Wolf-Brown-Donnelly because this area trump is still very popular.

[YPestis25]

Last time this seat was challenged in 2012, the Republican won by nearly 30 points. Further, this is a district which despite containing a significant suburban vote, also contains a share of rural, Appalachian, southwest Pennsylvania, where Trump's support should be much more durable than elsewhere. With that in mind, I'd say these numbers aren't bad at all.

[Mondale]

Poll taken before Wolff book

[GlobeSoc]

Poll taken before Wolff book

[Keep cool-idge]

Poll taken before Wolff book

The book that has mixed reviews at best.

[LimoLiberal]

Poll taken before Wolff book

That's going to change how Americans view Tax Reform?

[Mondale]

Poll taken before Wolff book

The book that has mixed reviews at best.

The only reviewer that matters is the American public and they are buying the book in droves using money from the tax cuts everyone already forgot about (tax reform bump = dead)

[Landslide Lyndon]

Right where Jones was two months before the election.

[LimoLiberal]

Right where Jones was two months before the election.

Trump was not +15 in Alabama....

[Hindsight is 2020]

With all due respect you are the biggest hack on this site limbo

[Keep cool-idge]

Poll taken before Wolff book

The book that has mixed reviews at best.

The only reviewer that matters is the American public and they are buying the book in droves using money from the tax cuts everyone already forgot about (tax reform bump = dead)

Liberals who hate trump are buying it.

[Mondale]

Poll taken before Wolff book

The book that has mixed reviews at best.

The only reviewer that matters is the American public and they are buying the book in droves using money from the tax cuts everyone already forgot about (tax reform bump = dead)

Liberals who hate trump are buying it.

Doesn't matter. All we are talking about now is Trump's brain damage, mental deficiencies, and the gorilla channel

Everyone already forgot about tax reform. Not looking good. It will reflect in the polls very soon. Expect generic ballot to be D+20

[Keep cool-idge]

Poll taken before Wolff book

The book that has mixed reviews at best.

The only reviewer that matters is the American public and they are buying the book in droves using money from the tax cuts everyone already forgot about (tax reform bump = dead)

Liberals who hate trump are buying it.

Doesn't matter. All we are talking about now is Trump's brain damage, mental deficiencies, and the gorilla channel

Everyone already forgot about tax reform. Not looking good. It will reflect in the polls very soon. Expect generic ballot to be D+20

Trump is just weird I really doubt that he has brain damage or mental deficiencies.

[LimoLiberal]

With all due respect you are the biggest hack on this site limbo

I still believe the democrats are going to take back the house. I correctly pointed out that there were several "bad" toplines for Democrats in this poll, and also noted that it was only one poll from a not-stellar pollster, and that Casey had a good approval topline.

With all due respect, it's far more hackish and pathetic to launch a ad hominen attack on someone because they analyze a poll in a way not favorable to Democrats.

[Mondale]

Poll taken before Wolff book

The book that has mixed reviews at best.

The only reviewer that matters is the American public and they are buying the book in droves using money from the tax cuts everyone already forgot about (tax reform bump = dead)

Liberals who hate trump are buying it.

Doesn't matter. All we are talking about now is Trump's brain damage, mental deficiencies, and the gorilla channel

Everyone already forgot about tax reform. Not looking good. It will reflect in the polls very soon. Expect generic ballot to be D+20

Trump is just weird I really doubt that he has brain damage or mental deficiencies.

Hey idk either...it's just what many people are saying. The book is very bad for Mr Trump. It has rained all over tax reform

[Skill and Chance]

This is the heart of Trump country, not a district with tons of Republicans who reluctantly held their noses.  It's a bit like Republicans trying to take back the CA districts that flipped in 2006/08 in 2010.  By and large, it just didn't happen.

It shouldn't be representative of the national environment or the battle for House control.  Could be an early warning to those who think Manchin or Heitkamp are fine, though.

[LimoLiberal]

This is the heart of Trump country, not a district with tons of Republicans who reluctantly held their noses.  It's a bit like Republicans trying to take back the CA districts that flipped in 2006/08 in 2010.  By and large, it just didn't happen.

It shouldn't be representative of the national environment or the battle for House control.  Could be an early warning to those who think Manchin or Heitkamp are fine, though.

This is a good point. Appalachian Demosaurs could still love the Tax Reform (and Trump), but we can't know if that applies to the rural and midwestern democrats, like those in IA-01 and the upstate NY districts. All though Appalachia and the rural midwest both shifted R heavily in 2016, that doesn't necessarily mean that they will react the same way to Trump.

[nonpartisanhunk]

People are overreacting here, it's one poll from an not so wonderful firm 3 months before the special election. I want to see which other firms come up with, but we should really just rely on fundamentals.

[Landslide Lyndon]

The topline seems OK but I'm skeptical about Trump's approval numbers.
The guy couldn't even break 50 at Alabama and he is at +15 here?

[The Mikado]

This is the sort of district I'd expect the Trumpish GOP to overperform in. I fully expect Saccone to comfortably win by 8-10 points.

[LimoLiberal]

The topline seems OK but I'm skeptical about Trump's approval numbers.
The guy couldn't even break 50 at Alabama and he is at +15 here?

He has risen significantly in the 538 and rcp aggregator since the Alabama election.

[UncleSam]

Are people seriously arguin that some book written with the express intent of painting Trump in a negative light will shape how the public views tax reform lmao

That's the dumbest assertion I've heard since rain will destroy Northam in NoVA.

[bandg]

The topline seems OK but I'm skeptical about Trump's approval numbers.
The guy couldn't even break 50 at Alabama and he is at +15 here?

Trump obviously has a higher approval in Alabama than the polls or exit poll showed. There was a huge turnout gap due to Moore's toxicity, and thus GOP voters were not making it through LV screens. This deflated Trump's approval among special election voters, but it is certainly higher among the larger population of RVs.

[Devout Centrist]

Oh yeah, an 18-point swing is horrible. We're all doomed.