PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose

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Wow the NRCC is really going for the jugular in this ad just devastating.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=41&v=FCiW-R5bY2k

Oh my god. When did the GOP get so awful at ads? Like nursery rhymes? Are voters babies now?

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Quote if you logged into youtube just to dislike.

Nah, logged into YouTube all the time, (sane, normal).

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Bagel isn't wrong about his establishment connections but he's not taking any corporate or PAC money, so will he really do their bidding in DC or not? Also on what issues Conor Lamb has actually flip flopped on? Most people are somewhere in between pro-life and pro-choice, so I don't think his abortion stance is that problematic. I actually agree with you on the broader point that far too many Democrats trying to weave in and out of crap though Conor Lamb is less guilty of this than the infamous 2014 Kentucky Senate nominee who refused to say whether she voted for Obama or not or said 1996 Democratic nominee for president who sounded like a Republican on the debate stage.   

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"Social Security is going to go broke this year" - Saccone

And Saccone just admitted to not paying his workers minimum wage.

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This is a robotic, defensive ad from Lamb: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gYEUHmTe68

No, he does something that really I've only seen Bernie Sanders do. Pivot to substance when attacked about something non-policy related, and best of all, he does it in a concise manner.

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BRD Polling - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rlBtiNl6sz02e1WvEy5vNTMm9AtfeyCLe7jvcYyq9RY/edit


Lamb - 47
Saccone - 46
Undecided - 6

Undecideds lean Lamb 50-46 when pushed.

Trump approval above water 50-44
Casey approval below water 38-45 (yikes)
Toomey approval above water 41-34

Looking at the crosstabs, Lamb is in trouble. Trump is above water in this district. All it would take is for him to make a few visits and Saccone got this in the bag.

Oh god. A third person in the Limo-Lear circle jerk.

Btw, very impressive numbera for Casey.

Numbers aren't circle jerks. Trump being at 50 means that all he has to do is reinforce that a vote for Saccone is a vote for him, and presto, Lamb will have to run in the new district and wait his turn.

It’s not that simple. I’m pretty sure many people in Massachusetts approved of Obama in 2010 and didn’t just switch to Martha Coakley from Scott Brown after he campaigned for her.

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Lamb says he's in favor of the tariffs.

Gross

Its Pennsylvania. This place was built on tariffs. 

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Tossup but Emerson isn't a good pollster.

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Trump and Republicans may be expecting a Lamb victory...

https://www.axios.com/scoop-trump-privately-trashes-rick-saccone-1520806446-c7033bad-f7a4-4d92-80a7-40113967a0e2.html

There trying to set the bar low and play the expectations game.

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It's stupid but the overconfidence is making me less and less confident.

Yea especially Steel seems cocky. He may be right but there are a lot of unknowns as this point and this is still a fairly hard district for Dems to win.

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Out of curiosity, was Saccone ever ahead in the count? Not that it matters that much, I'm just curious, since I wasn't here earlier on.

No. Closest he got was 95 votes.

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Special elections are much more elastic than national elections. I'd hold off the breaks on even a gain of 60-70 at this point.

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Y'all I have a quiz tomorrow

It's ok, you're like 12, it won't matter in the grand scheme of things.

I'm a freshman in college...

I remember spending my college years late at night on the internet with a quiz the next day. That's actually not sarcasm I legit did that and getting nostalgia flashbacks

It's not an ideal situation but sh**t happens in college and sometimes you stay up way later than you'd like. Happens to me like two times a week these days.

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If only Democrats were as pro-labor as Conor Lamb, they'd easily win back Obama voters in the WWC. Lamb isn't a progressive but much like Joe Biden is a good match for the WWC anyway.