PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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May 09, 2021, 07:46:59 AM

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  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 141393 times)
Brittain33
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« Reply #500 on: February 20, 2018, 12:05:15 PM »

I have briefly read somewhere that PA's congressional districts were ruled unconstitutional.

Does this apply only to the PA state senate and house or the US house races as well ?

And if yes, does it mean the special election will still be held using the unconstitutional boundaries (I guess yes) ?

And what about the regular November election ? Old or new districts ?

Special election in old map, November election in new map. Congress only. There's a monster thread down below.
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Badger
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« Reply #501 on: February 20, 2018, 01:04:14 PM »

Badger,
Lamb now lives in the new Rothfus' district. It ils obvious he will run there and he won't be portrayed as a carpetbagger as he now lives there.

I'm not making my point very well here. Right, there won't be any issue about lamb running in the 17th District. I'm wondering if Saccone could argue that voters in the current 14th should vote for him over land because outside of the part of the district in the South Hills, I am won't be representing anyone in this District after this year. If I am Saccone, I would argue that voters should choose a candidate in the special election who is going to continue representing them for years to come, not just for the next 10 months.

Again, that applies to all the voters in the current Pennsylvania 14 the South Hills. That is, the vast majority of the district. When inevitably question about his intentions, what is lamb going to say?

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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #502 on: February 20, 2018, 01:07:36 PM »

Badger,
Lamb now lives in the new Rothfus' district. It ils obvious he will run there and he won't be portrayed as a carpetbagger as he now lives there.

I'm not making my point very well here. Right, there won't be any issue about lamb running in the 17th District. I'm wondering if Saccone could argue that voters in the current 14th should vote for him over land because outside of the part of the district in the South Hills, I am won't be representing anyone in this District after this year. If I am Saccone, I would argue that voters should choose a candidate in the special election who is going to continue representing them for years to come, not just for the next 10 months.

Again, that applies to all the voters in the current Pennsylvania 14 the South Hills. That is, the vast majority of the district. When inevitably question about his intentions, what is lamb going to say?



Could be a potent argument, but the fact that Saccone too lives outside the new 14th makes him a flawed messenger.
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Badger
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« Reply #503 on: February 20, 2018, 01:40:47 PM »
« Edited: February 20, 2018, 01:46:12 PM by Badger »

Badger,
Lamb now lives in the new Rothfus' district. It ils obvious he will run there and he won't be portrayed as a carpetbagger as he now lives there.

I'm not making my point very well here. Right, there won't be any issue about lamb running in the 17th District. I'm wondering if Saccone could argue that voters in the current 14th should vote for him over land because outside of the part of the district in the South Hills, I am won't be representing anyone in this District after this year. If I am Saccone, I would argue that voters should choose a candidate in the special election who is going to continue representing them for years to come, not just for the next 10 months.

Again, that applies to all the voters in the current Pennsylvania 14 the South Hills. That is, the vast majority of the district. When inevitably question about his intentions, what is lamb going to say?



Could be a potent argument, but the fact that Saccone too lives outside the new 14th makes him a flawed messenger.

Well, sure, but unlike Lamb he can aggressively and convincingly vow to relocate to the new 14th if elected in order to keep representing the district's current (special election) voters, and persistently call on Lamb to do the same.

 Or would Saccone necessarily have to move to continue running in/ representing the 14th District even if he lives outside its boundaries? There was some debate about that earlier in this thread, or maybe the PA redistricting thread.

At any rate, the issue for voters might not be Who currently does or doesn't live within the boundaries of the new District, it's who is going to continue representing the voters of the district ( again, outside of the South Hills) after this year? Saccone can convincingly pledge that he will continue representing voters of the new 14th District as long as they wish to keep him, but lamb isn't going to be representing any of the districts Washington, Fayette, or Westmoreland County voters after December 31st, so why elect a mere caretaker congressman?

At any rate, I think, but I'm still not certain, that the best thing a lamb could do when inevitably pose with the question is dissemble about focusing on next month's election, leaving all opportunities open, seeking to represent voters in southwestern Pennsylvania who are seeing their health care and Social Security threatened, etc etc, and hope that redistricting and what district hill run in next year is too inside baseball for almost any voters to care about. However, if Saccone is smart - - so frankly I've seen nothing from his campaign or speeches so far to convince me of that - - he'll make this an issue and work his ass off to convince Fayette, Westmoreland, and Washington County voters that lamb will not be their congressmen after this year regardless of who wins the special election, so why not elect Saccone who will stick with representing them for many years to come.
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History505
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« Reply #504 on: February 20, 2018, 07:23:49 PM »

I'm not even from PA and this race has caught my interest. Will there be a live results map on March 13th sonewhere?
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Josh Shapiro for Governor
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« Reply #505 on: February 20, 2018, 07:44:02 PM »

I'm not even from PA and this race has caught my interest. Will there be a live results map on March 13th sonewhere?

NYtimes has done a very good job giving us detailed maps of every special election.
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History505
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« Reply #506 on: February 20, 2018, 07:49:39 PM »

I'm not even from PA and this race has caught my interest. Will there be a live results map on March 13th sonewhere?

NYtimes has done a very good job giving us detailed maps of every special election.
Great, thanks!
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Truvinny
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« Reply #507 on: February 20, 2018, 10:48:49 PM »

Longtime lurker. Signed up to comment on this race. I think Lamb is going to pull it out.
First off, special elections always get more people from the opposing party out, especially with someone so unpopular in the White House. Second, the polling is definitely trending Lamb's way. And Saccone is a terrible candidate, just a generic Trumpster Republican with no new ideas. I think this latest school shooting really drives the point home that if we need anything, it's new ideas. I look forward to seeing how this race turns out. This year is going to be a Blue Wave regardless of the result in this race.

Hi man, and welcome! Two questions: Do you have any authority for the idea more voters from the out of power party tend to show up for special elections? I mean, it FEELS like a correct statement in my gut, much like the general trend for off-year elections in general, but I was just wondering.

Secondly, have the polls really turned towards Lamb? They seem to have all been in a low to mid single digit Saccone lead. The most recent showing Saccone up by 6 is actually an improvement on the last two polls showing him up only 3 points each. Caveat for MoE and all that acknowledged, but I'm wondering if there's some other polls you're aware of, even via word of mouth from people in the respective campaigns?

Just looking for every crumb of info on this really interesting race. Again, welcome!

Hi and thank you! I'm mostly basing the SE turnout thing on races like the most recent Alabama election and the Massachusetts election in 2010. My comment about the polling numbers was more meant to reflect the general trend over the last few months. I'm not an expert by any means but I think there's reason to be optimistic.
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IndustrialJustice
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« Reply #508 on: February 23, 2018, 01:41:01 PM »

Labor leaders are frustrated with Lamb, who has not mentioned unions once in his ads despite promising to run on the back of their support. His district is loaded with union members.

http://paydayreport.com/5000-teachers-storm-wv-capitol-lamb-upset-labor-pa18-virginia-state-house-passes-medicaid-expansion/
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Brittain33
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« Reply #509 on: February 23, 2018, 01:47:47 PM »

Do people think Lamb is wrong that a $15/hour minimum wage is too high nationally? If it was considered a risky, if successful, experiment for Seattle, PA-18 is at the opposite end of the cost of living scale. I really don't think this is the part of the country where this is a realistic goal and I wonder if voters there actually care about Lamb not signing on vs. national union leaders wishing they had his vote.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #510 on: February 23, 2018, 01:49:03 PM »
« Edited: February 23, 2018, 01:56:21 PM by Brittain33 »

Labor leaders are frustrated with Lamb, who has not mentioned unions once in his ads despite promising to run on the back of their support. His district is loaded with union members.

http://paydayreport.com/5000-teachers-storm-wv-capitol-lamb-upset-labor-pa18-virginia-state-house-passes-medicaid-expansion/

It's always nice to see rich kids from political dynasties tell their constituents that living on a starvation wage is Good, Actually.

Appalachia and suburban Pittsburgh are not going to lead the nation on a $15/hour minimum wage.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #511 on: February 23, 2018, 01:53:48 PM »

Lamb's first ads were about protecting Social Security and Medicare, which are programs that labor unions care a lot about, AFAIK.
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IndustrialJustice
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« Reply #512 on: February 23, 2018, 01:58:37 PM »

Lamb's first ads were about protecting Social Security and Medicare, which are programs that labor unions care a lot about, AFAIK.

They also care about Right to Work, which Pennsylvania is dangerously on the verge of passing in a few years (and which Saccone has promised to vote for). I don't know why Lamb isn't at least mentioning that; it won't hurt him.
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
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« Reply #513 on: February 23, 2018, 03:18:02 PM »

Lamb's first ads were about protecting Social Security and Medicare, which are programs that labor unions care a lot about, AFAIK.

They also care about Right to Work, which Pennsylvania is dangerously on the verge of passing in a few years (and which Saccone has promised to vote for). I don't know why Lamb isn't at least mentioning that; it won't hurt him.

Once again, a Dem candidate is exposed as a corporate shill. News at 10.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #514 on: February 23, 2018, 04:00:35 PM »

Lamb's first ads were about protecting Social Security and Medicare, which are programs that labor unions care a lot about, AFAIK.

They also care about Right to Work, which Pennsylvania is dangerously on the verge of passing in a few years (and which Saccone has promised to vote for). I don't know why Lamb isn't at least mentioning that; it won't hurt him.

If Right to Work wasn't passed when Republicans had the trifecta, how can you say that it's on the verge of passing now with a Democratic governor?
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IndustrialJustice
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« Reply #515 on: February 23, 2018, 04:12:12 PM »

Lamb's first ads were about protecting Social Security and Medicare, which are programs that labor unions care a lot about, AFAIK.

They also care about Right to Work, which Pennsylvania is dangerously on the verge of passing in a few years (and which Saccone has promised to vote for). I don't know why Lamb isn't at least mentioning that; it won't hurt him.

If Right to Work wasn't passed when Republicans had the trifecta, how can you say that it's on the verge of passing now with a Democratic governor?

1. I said "in a few years," implying that the outcome may depend on which party is in the governor's office.
2. Some western Pennsylvanian Republicans did not or do not support Right to Work--Tim Murphy being one of them, as he actually boasted some decent union support in the area. Someone can correct me here, but Rick Saccone would probably be the first anti-union politician to represent this district.
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emotional hardcore
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« Reply #516 on: February 23, 2018, 04:52:23 PM »

Lamb's first ads were about protecting Social Security and Medicare, which are programs that labor unions care a lot about, AFAIK.

They also care about Right to Work, which Pennsylvania is dangerously on the verge of passing in a few years (and which Saccone has promised to vote for). I don't know why Lamb isn't at least mentioning that; it won't hurt him.

If Right to Work wasn't passed when Republicans had the trifecta, how can you say that it's on the verge of passing now with a Democratic governor?

1. I said "in a few years," implying that the outcome may depend on which party is in the governor's office.
2. Some western Pennsylvanian Republicans did not or do not support Right to Work--Tim Murphy being one of them, as he actually boasted some decent union support in the area. Someone can correct me here, but Rick Saccone would probably be the first anti-union politician to represent this district.

Election is for Congress though, not the PA state legislature.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #517 on: February 25, 2018, 10:49:32 PM »

This is a robotic, defensive ad from Lamb: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gYEUHmTe68
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Josh Shapiro for Governor
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« Reply #518 on: February 25, 2018, 10:58:10 PM »


... How is it robotic in any way?
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #519 on: February 25, 2018, 11:05:22 PM »


Remember this is Limo. Half of the time, he's editorializing everything to make it negative.
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Hoosier_Nick
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« Reply #520 on: February 26, 2018, 12:04:11 AM »


That was actually fantastic. Honestly, I think this is his best all election.
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#Joemala2020
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« Reply #521 on: February 26, 2018, 12:14:59 AM »

That was actually fantastic. Honestly, I think this is his best all election.
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YE
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« Reply #522 on: February 26, 2018, 12:50:25 AM »


No, he does something that really I've only seen Bernie Sanders do. Pivot to substance when attacked about something non-policy related, and best of all, he does it in a concise manner.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #523 on: February 26, 2018, 02:19:47 AM »

For the gazilionth time: respect us who have limo on ignore and stop quoting him.

Thanks.
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President Sestak
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« Reply #524 on: February 26, 2018, 02:26:22 AM »

For the gazilionth time: respect us who have limo on ignore and stop quoting him.

Thanks.

He actually posted the ad tho...
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