PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose

[Tender Branson]

A +20 favorable rating in a usually R+25 district is pretty good.

Lamb seems to win this thing tomorrow.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Man, I hope Lamb can pull this out.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/973245955389755392

https://twitter.com/PollsterPatrick/status/973247546796789760

Even after the Trump rally and even with them polling more Republican friendly areas, Lamb's lead stayed stable.

[Virginiá]

Just like I've been saying for months: The GOP is finished

If theyre losing in PA 18, they're losing everywhere

We can certainly hope, but do not underestimate the deplorables.

The GOP has the same problem Democrats had with Obama: When Obama wasn't on the ballot....it was a disaster downballot for the Democrats. Now the roles are reversed: Without Trump on the ballot....it's going to be an even worse disaster for the GOP.

Trumptards are a loud minority....even half the GOP didn't want Trump. Now it's going to badly hurt them downballot

It might still end up being a disaster when Trump is on the ballot, as Trump lacks one thing Obama generally had in both his campaigns, but more so in the first: popularity. All that has to happen for Trump and Republicans to get blown out in 2020 is, imo, Trump staying as popular as he has been since he first announced his run for president. That and a reasonably popular Democratic candidate, which up until Hillary Clinton was usually considered a given.

[We Made PA Blue Again!]

I really cannot see Saccone winning this. The polls showed a continuous shift to Lamb, the crosstabs are extremely favorable to Conor. I would honestly be shell shocked if Saccone won. It would be due to extremely low turnout (Something I don't see happening).

[Badger]

Conor Lamb is awakening the sleeping Democrats in the rust belt. The DNC would be wise to listen to him.

Anyways, Favorable ratings -

Conor Lamb: 53/33 +20
Rick Saccone: 47/43 +4

Can Democrats clone Lamb and send him to MN-01, MN-08, and WI-07?

Dolly (D)

Beat me to it.

[Teflon Joe.]

Congrats Congressmen Ojeda and Lamb!

[We Made PA Blue Again!]

Congrats Congressmen Ojeda and Lamb!

SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUSH

[Arch]

Congrats Congressmen Ojeda and Lamb!

SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUSH

Lmao

[Ebsy]

www.politico.com/story/2018/03/12/pennsylvania-special-election-lamb-saccone-454728

Yet there’s evidence the Republican offensive might be having some effect. A data analysis completed by the RNC during the middle of last week showed Lamb leading just 48 percent to 47 percent, according to two people briefed on the numbers. The Democrat’s advantage had shrunk from 4 percentage points in the committee’s previous analysis of the race days earlier.

RNC internals show Saccone down.

[Holmes]

I can envision a 3-4 point Lamb win. This race really got away from Republicans in recent weeks (though I don't think they were always heavily favored as some people think). Saccone has been a poor candidate and Lamb's exceeded expectations.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Congrats Congressmen Ojeda and Lamb!

SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHUSH

[Horus]

My personal sources are all saying Saccone by 10-12 points. Tomorrow will be a very lackluster night.

[GeorgiaModerate]

My personal sources are all saying Saccone by 10-12 points. Tomorrow will be a very lackluster night.

Horus has been possessed by LimoLiberal.

[Mondale]

My personal sources are all saying Saccone by 10-12 points. Tomorrow will be a very lackluster night.

Horus has been possessed by LimoLiberal.

The infallible Mind Model ™

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

This should have been on his billboards everywhere.

[Quislings Anonymous]

New Monmouth poll: Dem Conor Lamb leads in all turnout models.

With turnout similar to special elections over the last year: Lamb leads 51-45

Go big or go home. Lamb by 6

[Chief Justice windjammer]

I still think Saccone wins, Lamb isn't at 50% and I suspect the undecideds are heavily gop.

[Mondale]

Future federal inmate Don Jr weighs in:

https://www.twitter.com/alexis_levinson/status/973290647376588800

[Gass3268]

I still think Saccone wins, Lamb isn't at 50% and I suspect the undecideds are heavily gop.

You're taking the low turnout poll option?

[Where We Griff 1 We Griff All]

Looking at statewide returns from 2012-2014 for the past five elections for state races (Gov, AG, Senate, Auditor & Treasurer), the Democrat has averaged 45.2% of the vote in this district. It's not unfathomable at all to see him easily clearing 50 now that I've seen these figures.

[History505]

Going to be one interesting night tomorrow...

[Mondale]

Just like I've been saying for months: The GOP is finished

If theyre losing in PA 18, they're losing everywhere

We can certainly hope, but do not underestimate the deplorables.

The GOP has the same problem Democrats had with Obama: When Obama wasn't on the ballot....it was a disaster downballot for the Democrats. Now the roles are reversed: Without Trump on the ballot....it's going to be an even worse disaster for the GOP.

Trumptards are a loud minority....even half the GOP didn't want Trump. Now it's going to badly hurt them downballot

It might still end up being a disaster when Trump is on the ballot, as Trump lacks one thing Obama generally had in both his campaigns, but more so in the first: popularity. All that has to happen for Trump and Republicans to get blown out in 2020 is, imo, Trump staying as popular as he has been since he first announced his run for president. That and a reasonably popular Democratic candidate, which up until Hillary Clinton was usually considered a given.

Popularity is overrated to an extent. Even when you account for Obama's popularity...he presided over one of the worst records since Truman for the Senate and FDR for the House in terms of losses.

[Crumpets]

Don't know if this has been posted yet, but the forecast for tomorrow in the district is 25-34°F and light snow.

[Virginiá]

Just like I've been saying for months: The GOP is finished

If theyre losing in PA 18, they're losing everywhere

We can certainly hope, but do not underestimate the deplorables.

The GOP has the same problem Democrats had with Obama: When Obama wasn't on the ballot....it was a disaster downballot for the Democrats. Now the roles are reversed: Without Trump on the ballot....it's going to be an even worse disaster for the GOP.

Trumptards are a loud minority....even half the GOP didn't want Trump. Now it's going to badly hurt them downballot

It might still end up being a disaster when Trump is on the ballot, as Trump lacks one thing Obama generally had in both his campaigns, but more so in the first: popularity. All that has to happen for Trump and Republicans to get blown out in 2020 is, imo, Trump staying as popular as he has been since he first announced his run for president. That and a reasonably popular Democratic candidate, which up until Hillary Clinton was usually considered a given.

Popularity is overrated to an extent. Even when you account for Obama's popularity...he presided over one of the worst records since Truman for the Senate and FDR for the House in terms of losses.

-snip-

Well that is because in 2014 he was pretty unpopular by modern standards - something like 40% approve / 51-52% disapprove, so even still lower than Trump. In 2010, he was breaking even around 45-45. However, the thing is, Democrats are at a clear disadvantage in the states, and the South still had a ton of Democrats in state offices, so it didn't take a deeply unpopular Democratic president to cause a massive loss of legislative seats. It just took one like Obama, who was straddling the line, and also represented a (small) break from the more Bill Clinton-like centrist approach. Democrats were very much over-extended after 2006 and 2008, and all it took was a midterm or two under a Democratic president to wipe out those gains. This is kind of why I don't like the "we lost 900-1000 legislative seats under Obama..." thing. It's a bit misleading, and attempts to explain a complex electoral situation by a snappy one-liner that doesn't answer the question in full.

So my thoughts are that approval ratings do matter. Presidents with 40% approval ratings are going to have a hard time getting re-elected (or elected in the first place at 40% favorable) unless their opponent is just as unpopular. In fact, if Trump is hovering around 37-38% approval in 2020, I do think it gives another opportunity for a wave. It's only if Trump maintains a consistent upper-40s / low-50s approval that I think he might have a shot, just like any other president with similar ratings. But I don't expect him to have those kinds of numbers in 2020. He's not capable of changing what he needs to change to achieve it.