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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose
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Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election - Lamb by a nose  (Read 132168 times)
LimoLiberal
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« Reply #950 on: March 12, 2018, 12:10:44 pm »

I think this was the one, Gass. They still were in the field yesterday after all.

Your record is unblemished, dude. Please post any tidbit you get from this source if you can.
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PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #951 on: March 12, 2018, 12:13:07 pm »

Guys, I think Holmes is God.
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Torrain
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« Reply #952 on: March 12, 2018, 12:13:26 pm »

Holmes: Sherlock of Polls
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #953 on: March 12, 2018, 12:14:16 pm »


It's elementary for him.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #954 on: March 12, 2018, 12:15:27 pm »

The other questions in this poll are brutal for Republicans:

Trump Approval: 49-49 (Strongly numbers are 39-41)
Will Tariffs Help or Hurt: 43% Help - 36% Hurt (THIS IS STEEL COUNTRY!)
Republican Party: 44% Favorable - 48% Unfavorable
Democratic Party: 44% Favorable - 47% Unfavorable
Who do you want to see control Congress: 42% Democrats - 42% Republicans

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PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #955 on: March 12, 2018, 12:16:20 pm »

The other questions in this poll are brutal for Republicans:

Trump Approval: 49-49 (Strongly numbers are 39-41)
Will Tariffs Help or Hurt: 43% Help - 36% Hurt (THIS IS STEEL COUNTRY!)
Republican Party: 44% Favorable - 48% Unfavorable
Democratic Party: 44% Favorable - 47% Unfavorable
Who do you want to see control Congress: 42% Democrats - 42% Republicans




I wonder how this will play-out in the new District 14 in November.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #956 on: March 12, 2018, 12:19:39 pm »

The other questions in this poll are brutal for Republicans:

Trump Approval: 49-49 (Strongly numbers are 39-41)
Will Tariffs Help or Hurt: 43% Help - 36% Hurt (THIS IS STEEL COUNTRY!)
Republican Party: 44% Favorable - 48% Unfavorable
Democratic Party: 44% Favorable - 47% Unfavorable
Who do you want to see control Congress: 42% Democrats - 42% Republicans




I wonder how this will play-out in the new District 14 in November.

Is Gina Cerrilli busy?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #957 on: March 12, 2018, 12:20:02 pm »

The other questions in this poll are brutal for Republicans:

Trump Approval: 49-49 (Strongly numbers are 39-41)
Will Tariffs Help or Hurt: 43% Help - 36% Hurt (THIS IS STEEL COUNTRY!)
Republican Party: 44% Favorable - 48% Unfavorable
Democratic Party: 44% Favorable - 47% Unfavorable
Who do you want to see control Congress: 42% Democrats - 42% Republicans




I wonder how this will play-out in the new District 14 in November.

I would read more into how this will play in the new District 17.
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PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #958 on: March 12, 2018, 12:21:22 pm »

The other questions in this poll are brutal for Republicans:

Trump Approval: 49-49 (Strongly numbers are 39-41)
Will Tariffs Help or Hurt: 43% Help - 36% Hurt (THIS IS STEEL COUNTRY!)
Republican Party: 44% Favorable - 48% Unfavorable
Democratic Party: 44% Favorable - 47% Unfavorable
Who do you want to see control Congress: 42% Democrats - 42% Republicans




I wonder how this will play-out in the new District 14 in November.

I would read more into how this will play in the new District 17.

The new PA14 will largely be comprised of the former PA18.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #959 on: March 12, 2018, 12:21:37 pm »

I have the geographical results:

Surge model -

Lamb wins Allegheny 62-36
Lamb wins Washington/Greene 49-47
Lamb loses Westmoreland 54-40

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Torrain
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« Reply #960 on: March 12, 2018, 12:23:48 pm »

The other questions in this poll are brutal for Republicans:

Trump Approval: 49-49 (Strongly numbers are 39-41)
Will Tariffs Help or Hurt: 43% Help - 36% Hurt (THIS IS STEEL COUNTRY!)
Republican Party: 44% Favorable - 48% Unfavorable
Democratic Party: 44% Favorable - 47% Unfavorable
Who do you want to see control Congress: 42% Democrats - 42% Republicans



If these numbers bear out in exit polling tomorrow, then I wonder what effect this will have on GOP funding for the PA Senate and Governor's race in November. I imagine they'll fight like crazy for the House seats on the new map, to prevent Democrats from taking vulnerable seats and establishing incumbents. But if Trump is this unpopular, it's going to be hard to beat Casey and Wolf.
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Mondale
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« Reply #961 on: March 12, 2018, 12:24:42 pm »

Just like I've been saying for months: The GOP is finished

If theyre losing in PA 18, they're losing everywhere
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Gass3268
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« Reply #962 on: March 12, 2018, 12:25:06 pm »

The other questions in this poll are brutal for Republicans:

Trump Approval: 49-49 (Strongly numbers are 39-41)
Will Tariffs Help or Hurt: 43% Help - 36% Hurt (THIS IS STEEL COUNTRY!)
Republican Party: 44% Favorable - 48% Unfavorable
Democratic Party: 44% Favorable - 47% Unfavorable
Who do you want to see control Congress: 42% Democrats - 42% Republicans




I wonder how this will play-out in the new District 14 in November.

I would read more into how this will play in the new District 17.

The new PA14 will largely be comprised of the former PA18.

You make a good point, Democrats need to find a good candidate.
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PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #963 on: March 12, 2018, 12:25:36 pm »

The other questions in this poll are brutal for Republicans:

Trump Approval: 49-49 (Strongly numbers are 39-41)
Will Tariffs Help or Hurt: 43% Help - 36% Hurt (THIS IS STEEL COUNTRY!)
Republican Party: 44% Favorable - 48% Unfavorable
Democratic Party: 44% Favorable - 47% Unfavorable
Who do you want to see control Congress: 42% Democrats - 42% Republicans



If these numbers bear out in exit polling tomorrow, then I wonder what effect this will have on GOP funding for the PA Senate and Governor's race in November. I imagine they'll fight like crazy for the House seats on the new map, to prevent Democrats from taking vulnerable seats and establishing incumbents. But if Trump is this unpopular, it's going to be hard to beat Casey and Wolf.

Wolf will be fine. Casey is not vulnerable.
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Torrain
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« Reply #964 on: March 12, 2018, 12:31:24 pm »

The other questions in this poll are brutal for Republicans:

Trump Approval: 49-49 (Strongly numbers are 39-41)
Will Tariffs Help or Hurt: 43% Help - 36% Hurt (THIS IS STEEL COUNTRY!)
Republican Party: 44% Favorable - 48% Unfavorable
Democratic Party: 44% Favorable - 47% Unfavorable
Who do you want to see control Congress: 42% Democrats - 42% Republicans



If these numbers bear out in exit polling tomorrow, then I wonder what effect this will have on GOP funding for the PA Senate and Governor's race in November. I imagine they'll fight like crazy for the House seats on the new map, to prevent Democrats from taking vulnerable seats and establishing incumbents. But if Trump is this unpopular, it's going to be hard to beat Casey and Wolf.

Wolf will be fine. Casey is not vulnerable.

The real question is whether the GOP still throws money at the races, or triages them to funnel cash into other races. I'd much rather they knock a couple of percent off of Casey's vote total than Heitkamp's
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Biden My Time
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« Reply #965 on: March 12, 2018, 12:33:17 pm »

Just like I've been saying for months: The GOP is finished

If theyre losing in PA 18, they're losing everywhere

We can certainly hope, but do not underestimate the deplorables.
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PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #966 on: March 12, 2018, 12:37:44 pm »

Conor Lamb is awakening the sleeping Democrats in the rust belt. The DNC would be wise to listen to him.

Anyways, Favorable ratings -

Conor Lamb: 53/33 +20
Rick Saccone: 47/43 +4
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #967 on: March 12, 2018, 12:43:21 pm »

Conor Lamb is awakening the sleeping Democrats in the rust belt. The DNC would be wise to listen to him.

Anyways, Favorable ratings -

Conor Lamb: 53/33 +20
Rick Saccone: 47/43 +4

Candidate quality is important.  (Fundamentals are important too.)
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #968 on: March 12, 2018, 12:43:34 pm »

Conor Lamb is awakening the sleeping Democrats in the rust belt. The DNC would be wise to listen to him.

Anyways, Favorable ratings -

Conor Lamb: 53/33 +20
Rick Saccone: 47/43 +4

Can Democrats clone Lamb and send him to MN-01, MN-08, and WI-07?
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PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #969 on: March 12, 2018, 12:47:04 pm »

Conor Lamb is awakening the sleeping Democrats in the rust belt. The DNC would be wise to listen to him.

Anyways, Favorable ratings -

Conor Lamb: 53/33 +20
Rick Saccone: 47/43 +4

Candidate quality is important.  (Fundamentals are important too.)

The human capital of the democratic candidates for the midterms has been phenomenal. We got Phil freaking Bredesen to run in Tennessee. The best the GOP could get is Kevin Cramer.
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DTC
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« Reply #970 on: March 12, 2018, 12:54:33 pm »

Conor Lamb is awakening the sleeping Democrats in the rust belt. The DNC would be wise to listen to him.

Anyways, Favorable ratings -

Conor Lamb: 53/33 +20
Rick Saccone: 47/43 +4

Candidate quality is important.  (Fundamentals are important too.)

The human capital of the democratic candidates for the midterms has been phenomenal. We got Phil freaking Bredesen to run in Tennessee. The best the GOP could get is Kevin Cramer.

Well, Rick Scott is extremely good. And I'd consider Evan Jenkins a good candidate as well (better than Kramer).

But yeah, the GOP recruits are... not great.
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Mondale
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
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« Reply #971 on: March 12, 2018, 12:55:59 pm »

Just like I've been saying for months: The GOP is finished

If theyre losing in PA 18, they're losing everywhere

We can certainly hope, but do not underestimate the deplorables.

The GOP has the same problem Democrats had with Obama: When Obama wasn't on the ballot....it was a disaster downballot for the Democrats. Now the roles are reversed: Without Trump on the ballot....it's going to be an even worse disaster for the GOP.

Trumptards are a loud minority....even half the GOP didn't want Trump. Now it's going to badly hurt them downballot
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PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #972 on: March 12, 2018, 12:59:54 pm »

Btw, funny that RCP only entered the low turnout model in their database.

Oh, and...

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Gass3268
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« Reply #973 on: March 12, 2018, 01:02:13 pm »

It hit the number that Nate Cohn said he would want for college educated voters:

56% No college degree
44% 4-year college degree

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Brittain33
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« Reply #974 on: March 12, 2018, 01:02:43 pm »

Conor Lamb is awakening the sleeping Democrats in the rust belt. The DNC would be wise to listen to him.

Anyways, Favorable ratings -

Conor Lamb: 53/33 +20
Rick Saccone: 47/43 +4

Can Democrats clone Lamb and send him to MN-01, MN-08, and WI-07?

Dolly (D)
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