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October 20, 2020, 08:16:40 PM
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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  PA-18 Special Election Prediction
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Poll
Question: Who will win the March special election in PA-18, and by how many points?
#1
Lamb by 5-10
 
#2
Lamb 0-5
 
#3
Saccone 0-5
 
#4
Saccone by 5-10
 
#5
Saccone by 10-20
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 138

Author Topic: PA-18 Special Election Prediction  (Read 8482 times)
mcmikk
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« Reply #75 on: March 09, 2018, 05:52:08 PM »

One part of me, sort of my gut instinct, says that Lamb will win this, but I can very easily see this being, to quote another poster, another 52-48 heart breaker like GA-06. But then again, I think Ossoff probably could have won in a political environment like this.

For now, I'm going to be optimistic and choose Lamb +0-2, but I won't hold my breath.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #76 on: March 10, 2018, 12:14:52 PM »

In my FINAL prediction, I'm going to predict a Lamb victory (he really has the momentum going for him and he's a strong candidate):

51.0% Conor Lamb (D)
48.2% Rick Saccone (R)
  0.7% Drew Miller (L)
  0.1% Write-Ins
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #77 on: March 10, 2018, 02:13:17 PM »

I was originally thinking Saccone by between 4-5, now I'm thinking Saccone by about 2.
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Incipimus iterum
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« Reply #78 on: March 10, 2018, 03:27:30 PM »

Saccone- 53
Lamb- 47
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The Hunt for the Red October Surprises
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« Reply #79 on: March 10, 2018, 04:24:41 PM »

Go big or go home. Lamb by 6
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #80 on: March 10, 2018, 08:45:08 PM »

Saccone wins by 3.
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CityofSinners
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« Reply #81 on: March 11, 2018, 02:25:03 PM »

Saccone wins by 4-6, still a good result for democrats.
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International Brotherhood of Bernard
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« Reply #82 on: March 11, 2018, 03:23:57 PM »

Call me crazy, but fortune favors the bold, and I think maybe, just maybe, he boutta do it:

Lamb: 52%
Saccone: 46%
Libertarian: 2%

Also wouldn't be surprised by a squeaker in either's favor (or a somewhat larger Saccone win), but I think the conditions have lined up for lightning to strike. We''l find out Tuesday.
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Make PA Blue Again!
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« Reply #83 on: March 11, 2018, 04:24:37 PM »

Lamb by 3
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #84 on: March 11, 2018, 04:45:06 PM »

Lamb +1.5
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Tx_Longhorn
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« Reply #85 on: March 11, 2018, 05:30:59 PM »

Lamb +2.3
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #86 on: March 11, 2018, 08:26:05 PM »

To be a little more exact:

Conor Lamb (D) - 99,340, 50.87%
Rick Saccone (R) - 94,692, 48.49%
Drew Gray Miller (L)/Write-Ins: - 1,250, 0.64%

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Delegate Weatherboy
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« Reply #87 on: March 11, 2018, 08:29:19 PM »

Conor Lamb: 50.02%
Rick Saccone: 49.43%
Others: 0.55%

Lamb gets a majority of around 100 votes, but beats Saccone by several thousand.
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Ses
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« Reply #88 on: March 11, 2018, 08:35:10 PM »

Lamb +2.4
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #89 on: March 12, 2018, 11:41:19 AM »



A question to ponder. I lean towards it being spin because the NRCC has shown itself to be masterful at this expectation-settings game before, but I do think internal numbers aren't good for Saccone based on the sheer volume of "GOP panic!" articles.
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VPH
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« Reply #90 on: March 12, 2018, 12:07:10 PM »

Saccone by 1.7
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Torrain
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« Reply #91 on: March 12, 2018, 12:42:23 PM »

Lamb by 1.4
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DTC
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« Reply #92 on: March 12, 2018, 12:43:39 PM »

Lamb + 2
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Make PA Blue Again!
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« Reply #93 on: March 12, 2018, 12:51:20 PM »

Lamb +3 or +4
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #94 on: March 12, 2018, 12:52:29 PM »

Saccone +2
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Xing
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« Reply #95 on: March 12, 2018, 12:55:05 PM »

Now Iíll say Lamb wins 50-48.
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Badger
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« Reply #96 on: March 12, 2018, 01:25:05 PM »

I was waiting for the final Monmouth poll. At this point I'll say Lamb by 0 to 5 Points. On fact, I would say there is an ever so slightly higher chance of lamb exceeding a five point margin than there is of Saccone winning.
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TexasGurl
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« Reply #97 on: March 12, 2018, 01:32:03 PM »

Saccone +3
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #98 on: March 12, 2018, 01:45:11 PM »

Lamb by 6
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VirginiŠ
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« Reply #99 on: March 12, 2018, 01:50:40 PM »

Lamb + 4


Still, with reservations. I'd say Saccone but combined with recent polling, I do feel like the momentum is with Lamb now, which is not something Ossoff had (iirc).

I just hope Lamb wins, because if he doesn't, I can only imagine the dire predictions for Democrats that will inevitably be circulating among the punditocracy will be suffocating, regardless of the fact that this district isn't even one that Democrats would need to win in November to flip the House.
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