Alabama Megathread 4: A New Hope

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Also a good time to point out that AL-05 (Northern Alabama) was represented by a Democrat until  2009.

Interesting. Parker Griffith was elected as a Democrat in 2008 (following Bud Cramer's (D) retirement), but switched in 2009. Griffith then lost the Republican primary in 2010 to Mo Brooks who continues to hold the seat.

[NOVA Green]

Disappointed moore lost but now icespear maybe will finally shut up.

The reports going around are saying Moore is waiting on military ballots any idea how many there are?

Not over 20,000, and they're not all going to Moore even if there are.

Nominate a decent human being next time if you want to have a chance at winning.

As I posted earlier there aren't that many out there that didn't arrive by election day (Maybe 3-5k?)

The other item to consider logically is that the vast majority of Military ballots are coming from age and ethnic backgrounds where Moore got his arse kicked, so even if hypothetically these small number of Military ballots narrowly lean Moore, to paraphrase some 'Dem Pol from the '90s "It's the Arithmetic stupid"....

The Officer Class tends to be quite a bit Older and Whiter in the US Military, and get their overseas Military ballots in the Mail early....

Enlisted Men and Women, don't necessarily have that same luxury.... "Rank Has it's Privileges" (RHIP) and all the crap.

Hell if Roy Moore is betting his Cowboy Hat on his experience in 'Nam, where he was so unpopular among Enlisted Men that even as an officer in the Marine Corp he was essentially potentially Ground Zero of a Fragging...

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=fragging

Sorry, he was a piss ant Officer during the War, comes back home with ribbons on his chest, despite the condemnation of many who served with him.

Decides to leverage things after the War with all those medals and next thing you know runs for political office, and become a DA of a relatively small County, starts to harass and assault Minors when he's the top Law Enforcement official....

Alabama has a new Sheriff in town.... time to drain the swap and take the primeval ooze scraping off the boots, wipe them down careful and throw them in the Hazardous Waste special disposal container at the plant where they belong.

I smell a New South arising...

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I smell a New South arising...

Perhaps it might be better to say the New South is coming back. When the Greatest Generation became the dominant force in the South you had some rather legendary politicians replace the Segregationists. People like Baker, Nunn, Sanford, etc, and these were referred to as the politicians of the New South.


Or better yet:
THE NEW SOUTH SHALL RISE AGAIN!!!!

[Adam Griffin]

Here are my initial calculations on the white vote. Thankfully, AL records registrations by race, which made my starting position more accurate than it would have been otherwise - not sure if they release voter turnout by race and county in the weeks following an election, but if so, that'll help make this projection more accurate.

These two maps show the same thing: the one on the left was the first one I made with 5-point gradients, but I decided to break it down into 1-point gradients on the right to make the differences between counties more visible (at the expense of making every county where whites were <15% D colorless)

[jimrtex]

We just got the most important Demographic breakdown from FOX:

Alabama fans: Moore +6
Auburn fans: Jones +2
Non-football fans: Jones +30

What percentage of voters are non-football fans? Isn't that about like polling Jewish voters in Alabama?

I got the full question (FOX is now doing an alternative to traditional exit polling, so its numbers are sometimes different from the exit poll- the most notable was that it suggested a somewhat bigger age gap than the exit polls did):

Alabama fans (47%): Moore 52-46
Auburn fans (19%): Jones 50-48
Fans of both (12%): Moore 52-47
Fans of neither (21%): Jones 60-39

So it would be fans of UAB, South Alabama, Troy, Alabama A&M, Samford, or even those who favor Tennessee, Georgia, Florida, etc., rather than those who completely deny the existence of Football.

You missed JSU

That's one mixed up school. Named after a city in Florida, with a mascot from South Carolina, they play in the Ohio Valley Conference.

Apologies also to Alabama State, and to North Alabama.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It seems that certain people can't accept that their side can possibly lose without it being cheating:

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As a black person myself from MS, also underage, I can confirm that it was true. What more could I say? Jones needed us to do the dirty stuff.

And here's how you did it!  https://twitter.com/jonrog1/status/941083157712969728

(This is a great takedown, and few people deserve it more than Bill Mitchell.)

[Nyvin]

Disappointed moore lost but now icespear maybe will finally shut up.

The reports going around are saying Moore is waiting on military ballots any idea how many there are?

Not only are there not going to be 20k military ballots, Moore edge in military ballots won't be large enough to shrink Jones victory margin by 20k.   

[GeorgiaModerate]

Disappointed moore lost but now icespear maybe will finally shut up.

The reports going around are saying Moore is waiting on military ballots any idea how many there are?

Not only are there not going to be 20k military ballots, Moore edge in military ballots won't be large enough to shrink Jones victory margin by 20k.   

Right, the military vote won't go 100% for any candidate, let alone one like Moore.  Huntsville has a large military presence, and Moore didn't do very well there.

Also, the overseas ballots that were received before Election Day would have been counted with other absentee ballots.  Only ballots received after Election Day would remain to be counted (I think they must be postmarked by Election Day and received within 7 days after to be counted, but not 100% sure of that).

And finally, not all overseas ballots are "military".  Some of them will be civilians who happen to be out of the country at the time of the election.

[Badger]

My opinion of Kushner has gone way up.

You know what else has gone up?

The number of Roy Moore's accusers

You know what else has gone up?

His polling numbers! And Dems can only cry about it! You got nothing. You lose. Trump. Karen Handel. The immigration ban. The embassy. And AL-Sen. It is all happening.

Roy Moore is soaring in the polls.

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Great honer friends!

Seeing all these posts from the pedophile apologists is bringing a smile to my face.

[CatoMinor]

How many votes are left to be counted from over seas?

[jman123]

What part of the state did Jones make inroads among whites?

[RINO Tom]

200-250K: Jones +29
250K+: Jones +21

Hilarious, as are the R->D swings in the suburbs and urban areas. Yet another one-off?

LOL, I know you have long predicted such a "realignment" (and, I'd go so far as to say you want it for some reason), but how is it "hilarious"?  I'll go ahead and predict, not so boldly, that a non-accused-pedophile Republican beats Jones with b oth of those income brackets.  Agree?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

200-250K: Jones +29
250K+: Jones +21

Hilarious, as are the R->D swings in the suburbs and urban areas. Yet another one-off?

LOL, I know you have long predicted such a "realignment" (and, I'd go so far as to say you want it for some reason), but how is it "hilarious"?  I'll go ahead and predict, not so boldly, that a non-accused-pedophile Republican beats Jones with b oth of those income brackets.  Agree?

Plus, Moore's best income group was 100-200K.  Those people aren't exactly poor either (and are far more numerous than the group above them).

[Landslide Lyndon]

Here are some swings from Birmingham's suburbs.

[Del Tachi]

Here are some swings from Birmingham's suburbs.

Once again, don't show RINO Tom.

Amazing swings for Jones in White Bham suburbs though.

[BuckeyeNut]

Here are some swings from Birmingham's suburbs.

Where did you find this glorious info?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Here are some swings from Birmingham's suburbs.

Where did you find this glorious info?

It was posted on twitter by a 538 guy.

[Gass3268]

Here are some swings from Birmingham's suburbs.

Called it

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[RINO Tom]

Here are some swings from Birmingham's suburbs.

Once again, don't show RINO Tom.

Amazing swings for Jones in White Bham suburbs though.

I know this has become a fun meme for you guys and whenever I respond to defend myself, you guys just mock me ... but why would you say "don't show" me?  Do you think I wasn't expecting this?  Or that it upsets me?  LOL, I would hope everyone of all income brackets, geographic aras and ideologies could unite against a pedophile creep with a terrible understanding of our Constitution.  All I said is that I don't think Jones would have performed that well against a Republican who wasn't accused of the same things as Moore ... how on EARTH is that controversial here?

[Holmes]

Here are my initial calculations on the white vote. Thankfully, AL records registrations by race, which made my starting position more accurate than it would have been otherwise - not sure if they release voter turnout by race and county in the weeks following an election, but if so, that'll help make this projection more accurate.

These two maps show the same thing: the one on the left was the first one I made with 5-point gradients, but I decided to break it down into 1-point gradients on the right to make the differences between counties more visible (at the expense of making every county where whites were <15% D colorless)

Thank you!

Very interesting to see some of Jones' worst counties actually didn't have his worst performances with whites. Likewise, some counties he actually won gave him worse numbers with whites.

And Lee county being Jones' second best performance with whites is surprising and should worry Republicans.

[RINO Tom]

I know this has become a fun meme for you guys and whenever I respond to defend myself, you guys just mock me ... but why would you say "don't show" me?  Do you think I wasn't expecting this?  Or that it upsets me?  LOL, I would hope everyone of all income brackets, geographic aras and ideologies could unite against a pedophile creep with a terrible understanding of our Constitution.  All I said is that I don't think Jones would have performed that well against a Republican who wasn't accused of the same things as Moore ... how on EARTH is that controversial here?

That's too much to ask for if you look at ExtremeConservative's signature.

Unfortunately, I know this ... honestly, 99% of the things you guys make fun of me for "disagreeing with you guys" on ... I don't.  None of that has a bearing on my registration in the state of Iowa or my approval of the Illinois GOP, of course, but that's another discussion.

[Del Tachi]

Here are some swings from Birmingham's suburbs.

Once again, don't show RINO Tom.

Amazing swings for Jones in White Bham suburbs though.

I know this has become a fun meme for you guys and whenever I respond to defend myself, you guys just mock me ... but why would you say "don't show" me?  Do you think I wasn't expecting this?  Or that it upsets me?  LOL, I would hope everyone of all income brackets, geographic aras and ideologies could unite against a pedophile creep with a terrible understanding of our Constitution.  All I said is that I don't think Jones would have performed that well against a Republican who wasn't accused of the same things as Moore ... how on EARTH is that controversial here?

But that wasn't what happened.  Moore actually overperformed his benchmarks through North Alabama and the Wiregrass with rural, working class White voters even though you think these people are Democrats.

Obviously, yes, you are correct that the unique circumstances in this race do not make it especially exportable to other races looking forward.  However, it is a continuation of the trends we saw put into motion last year.

[Dr. Arch]

I know this has become a fun meme for you guys and whenever I respond to defend myself, you guys just mock me ... but why would you say "don't show" me?  Do you think I wasn't expecting this?  Or that it upsets me?  LOL, I would hope everyone of all income brackets, geographic aras and ideologies could unite against a pedophile creep with a terrible understanding of our Constitution.  All I said is that I don't think Jones would have performed that well against a Republican who wasn't accused of the same things as Moore ... how on EARTH is that controversial here?

That's too much to ask for if you look at ExtremeConservative's signature.

Unfortunately, I know this ... honestly, 99% of the things you guys make fun of me for "disagreeing with you guys" on ... I don't.  None of that has a bearing on my registration in the state of Iowa or my approval of the Illinois GOP, of course, but that's another discussion.

I think you need to bring out your sock accounts for moral support ASAP

[Holmes]

Jones job in 2020 is to keep his support in those Birmingham burbs (including Shelby) along with Madison, Tuscaloosa, Mobile and Lee, and to make inroads in northern Alabama. And to keep black turn out high, obviously.

[Badger]

Here are some swings from Birmingham's suburbs.

Once again, don't show RINO Tom.

Amazing swings for Jones in White Bham suburbs though.

I know this has become a fun meme for you guys and whenever I respond to defend myself, you guys just mock me ... but why would you say "don't show" me?  Do you think I wasn't expecting this?  Or that it upsets me?  LOL, I would hope everyone of all income brackets, geographic aras and ideologies could unite against a pedophile creep with a terrible understanding of our Constitution.  All I said is that I don't think Jones would have performed that well against a Republican who wasn't accused of the same things as Moore ... how on EARTH is that controversial here?

Come on Tom. Lighten up a little.