Alabama Megathread 2: Thou Shall Not Touch Teenage Girls

[Classic Conservative]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/935696626160668672


Harry is almost certainly referring to the JMC poll to be released tomorrow.

Why would you say that?

The guy from JMC also said there was movement in this poll, he didn't say in what direction though.

[The Other Castro]

From the JMC pollster:

John Couvillon‏ @WinWithJMC
ALABAMA SENATE POLL: 7AM (tomorrow) Central release time. #ALSEN

This time, even one hint would give away the entire poll

Numbers unchanged on the question about alleged sexual misconduct - I recycled many of the questions that were on my last poll.

650 sample, field dates yesterday and today. 75-23% racial demographics.

I'll say there was "movement"

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/935686232566267904

[GlobeSoc]

I'm nervous about the JMC poll

[Sumner 1868]

Has a credible pollster ever had Jones at fifty? I think I've only seen him in the mid-high forties.

[Cactus Jack]

Has a credible pollster ever had Jones at fifty? I think I've only seen him in the mid-high forties.

Fox News had him right on the money at 50%.

[Arkansas Yankee]

The National Democrats are not doing much to help Jones with their own sexual dalliances being displayed and their threatening to shut down the government.  

I did not support shutting down the government when Gingrich pulled the stunt or when Cruz and his crazy
Tea Party friends pulled it off.  I am certainly not going to support it when the Democrats decide to go crazy.  SHUTTING DOWN THE GOVERNMENT IS NOT A PROPER WAY TO GOVERN.  THE PEOPLE NOT ON THE EXTREMES HATE iIT.  THIS ALL SEEMS SO COMMON SENSE.

I am sure the threat will bring some Republicans home. The threat also can give the Governor cover for voting for Moore.

I just wonder how many left wingers, who opposed Republican shutdowns, will support a Democrat one.  I am sure I will get more what about evidence.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Gravis will be releasing a final, 5-day poll this week.

https://twitter.com/GravisMarketing/status/934832446285189120

That seems odd with the election 11days off, if the poll is released Friday.

[Devout Centrist]

The National Democrats are no doing much to help Jones with their own sexual dalliances being displayed and their threatening to shut down the government. 

I did not support shutting down the government when Gingrich pulled the stunt or when Cruz and his crazy
Tea Party friends pulled it off.  I am certainly not going to support it when the Democrats decide to go crazy.  SHUTTING DOWN THE GOVERNMENT IS NOT A PROPER WAY TO GOVERN.  I am sure the threat will bring some Republicans home.

Friend, Republicans control all three branches. What's the hold up?

[IceSpear]

I'm nervous about the JMC poll

If you accepted from the start that Moore is inevitable you wouldn't be.

[Arkansas Yankee]

The National Democrats are no doing much to help Jones with their own sexual dalliances being displayed and their threatening to shut down the government.  

I did not support shutting down the government when Gingrich pulled the stunt or when Cruz and his crazy
Tea Party friends pulled it off.  I am certainly not going to support it when the Democrats decide to go crazy.  SHUTTING DOWN THE GOVERNMENT IS NOT A PROPER WAY TO GOVERN.  I am sure the threat will bring some Republicans home.

Friend, Republicans control all three branches. What's the hold up?

My understanding is they will need 60 votes in the Senate.  I am afraid there may be only a few Democrats to vote for passage of the spending bill, if the leadership comes out against it.

[Mr. Smith]

I'm nervous about the JMC poll

If you accepted from the start that Moore is inevitable you wouldn't be.

A Kandering is much easier to lightning rod around than if Jones says Bayh Bayh.

[Landslide Lyndon]

From the JMC pollster:

John Couvillon‏ @WinWithJMC
ALABAMA SENATE POLL: 7AM (tomorrow) Central release time. #ALSEN

This time, even one hint would give away the entire poll

Numbers unchanged on the question about alleged sexual misconduct - I recycled many of the questions that were on my last poll.

650 sample, field dates yesterday and today. 75-23% racial demographics.

I'll say there was "movement"

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/935686232566267904

You don't need to be a clairvoyant to understand that if the electorate is only 23% black then Jones has no chance in hell.

[Cactus Jack]

From the JMC pollster:

John Couvillon‏ @WinWithJMC
ALABAMA SENATE POLL: 7AM (tomorrow) Central release time. #ALSEN

This time, even one hint would give away the entire poll

Numbers unchanged on the question about alleged sexual misconduct - I recycled many of the questions that were on my last poll.

650 sample, field dates yesterday and today. 75-23% racial demographics.

I'll say there was "movement"

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/935686232566267904

You don't need to be a clairvoyant to understand that if the electorate is only 23% black then Jones has no chance in hell.

That alone is reason for me to doubt the poll. That seems like a massive undersampling of the black vote.

[ursulahx]

650 isn't that big a sample, as well.

[Blair]

I know the polling seems to have dried up (and there's the usual chatter about the magic internals showing something different...) but would I be right to say that the general trend is that Moore isn't going to lose?

I feel like it could be within a 1-3% margin; but even with all the variables, Moore is still going to win.

[RogueBeaver]

GOP polls show Jones stagnating, McConnell still wants to expel him.

[BudgieForce]

GOP polls show Jones stagnating, McConnell still wants to expel him.

I dont foresee McConnell having trouble getting the votes to expel Moore.

[Brittain33]

GOP polls show Jones stagnating, McConnell still wants to expel him.

I find the choice of wording to be very peculiar. If polls showed Jones leading, and then polls are "stagnating", they are freezing with Jones in a narrow lead. It would take a very optimistic scenario to expect Jones to actively pull away in polls and this would still constitute good news for Jones.

I wonder if it was poor word choice and they meant to describe the polling as tied rather than not moving further.

[DrScholl]

McConnell would need to get the entire Democratic caucus on board to expel Moore, plus 19 Republicans.

48 Democrats/Independents + Collins, Murkowski, Gardner, Flake, McCain is 53. Corker might vote to expel, perhaps even Heller which would bring it to 55 votes. Shelby came out against Moore, so that is a possible 56th vote. Toomey. Portman and Ernst are possibilities, but unreliable ones but let's add them for arguments same for 59. And if McConnell really wants him gone, that is 60 votes. Those last 7 votes are where things could get tough.

[Gustaf]

It'd be really nice if we could have less cultist pedophile worship in this thread and more focus on actual news about the race.

The 1000th Republican post just saying "I am an evil person devoid of morality" is pretty monotonous.

Why don’t you stop calling people names.  That would be a great start.

Lol, conservatives are such sensitive snowflakes. Look, if you insist on fervently defending pedophilia you're gonna get criticised for it. If you can't handle criticism, then go find a safe space for pedo lovers where you can voice your opinion without having to handle dissent. But either way stop whining about people calling you out for your views and behave like a grown man.

[Gass3268]

McConnell would need to get the entire Democratic caucus on board to expel Moore, plus 19 Republicans.

48 Democrats/Independents + Collins, Murkowski, Gardner, Flake, McCain is 53. Corker might vote to expel, perhaps even Heller which would bring it to 55 votes. Shelby came out against Moore, so that is a possible 56th vote. Toomey. Portman and Ernst are possibilities, but unreliable ones but let's add them for arguments same for 59. And if McConnell really wants him gone, that is 60 votes. Those last 7 votes are where things could get tough.

What would Shelby do? He already said he wrote in another Republican. Would he vote to expel?

[Person Man]

It'd be really nice if we could have less cultist pedophile worship in this thread and more focus on actual news about the race.

The 1000th Republican post just saying "I am an evil person devoid of morality" is pretty monotonous.

Why don’t you stop calling people names.  That would be a great start.

Lol, conservatives are such sensitive snowflakes. Look, if you insist on fervently defending pedophilia you're gonna get criticised for it. If you can't handle criticism, then go find a safe space for pedo lovers where you can voice your opinion without having to handle dissent. But either way stop whining about people calling you out for your views and behave like a grown man.

Word.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Guys Icespear was right Alabama is going to confirm it's worst stereotypes people have of it

[Babeuf]

McConnell would need to get the entire Democratic caucus on board to expel Moore, plus 19 Republicans.

48 Democrats/Independents + Collins, Murkowski, Gardner, Flake, McCain is 53. Corker might vote to expel, perhaps even Heller which would bring it to 55 votes. Shelby came out against Moore, so that is a possible 56th vote. Toomey. Portman and Ernst are possibilities, but unreliable ones but let's add them for arguments same for 59. And if McConnell really wants him gone, that is 60 votes. Those last 7 votes are where things could get tough.

There are a bunch of low-profile, generally very conservative, leadership allies from safe states who will probably vote with McConnell if he moves to expel. 

[Devout Centrist]

I can confidently predict that Doug Jones will lose if the electorate is 75% white on December 12th.