MS Megathread: Hyde-Smith wins by 8

[Rookie Yinzer]

The Mississippi Democratic primarh electorate 2008 was about 2/3’s black. The Democratic voter base is probably even  more black now, so I don’t see how Shelton can siphon enough black votes from Epsy or enough white votes from CHS to make it to the run-off. He’s the mayor of a small city of 40,000, hardly an influential political player.

Really? Exit polls put it at 50% AA in 2008 and 71%(!) in 2016. But yeah he can't compete against Espy's high name ID, Clinton connection, etc.

[Jeppe]

You’re right, I got my numbers mixed up, Hillary won 66% of white voters in MS in 2008.

[7,052,770]

The Mississippi Democratic primarh electorate 2008 was about 2/3’s black. The Democratic voter base is probably even  more black now, so I don’t see how Shelton can siphon enough black votes from Epsy or enough white votes from CHS to make it to the run-off. He’s the mayor of a small city of 40,000, hardly an influential political player.

Let's not sell Tupelo short - it's only of the largest cities in the state and is the hub of the whole Northeastern region.

I don't think Shelton will take many black votes away from Espy, other than those living in Tupelo, and will have to rely almost entirely on the white Northeasterners who mostly vote Republican but also vote for Hood and Presley. Actually getting those votes is a tall order, but it helps that CHS and McDaniel are pretty weak Republican candidates and from South Mississippi.

[RogueBeaver]

Catanese on the race.

[Doimper]

Espy appears to now have a website:

[OneJ]

Espy appears to now have a website:

[snip]

Hooray!!! About time dammit. Thinking about volunteering for Espy or Shelton, especially during the summer.

[OneJ]

I apologize for the double posting...

Wait, Espy has money for a poll but can’t take the time to set up a Twitter account? What a joke.

DSCC better throw in for Shelton

He does now @espyforsenate.

[TheSaint250]

According to Shelton, he has a fiscally conservative record, such as not raising taxes. Is this true?

[Pandaguineapig]

Epsy's corruption history is definitely going to be brought up by at least Shelton and Hyde-Smith

[Doimper]

Joe Trippi, a seasoned Democratic operative who played an instrumental role in Alabama, has joined the Espy campaign. Anybody who hasn't listened to his interview with Ezra Klein after Doug Jones' upset should, he had lots of interesting insights.

[Canis]

Having Shelton is good insurance if a potential Espy scandal comes up and gives us a little bit of a chance for a DvD runoff which would be amazing!

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Wait, Espy has money for a poll but can’t take the time to set up a Twitter account? What a joke.

DSCC better throw in for Shelton

According to Obama, having a twitter account is unimportant.

[KingSweden]

Joe Trippi, a seasoned Democratic operative who played an instrumental role in Alabama, has joined the Espy campaign. Anybody who hasn't listened to his interview with Ezra Klein after Doug Jones' upset should, he had lots of interesting insights.

Trippi is a big get... I thought he was working a House campaign in Texas, though?

[Canis]

Hopefully Espy and Shelton get twitter accounts and websites up soon both are very important for donations and out reach Mcdaniel and Smith already have theirs up

[nclib]

Not sure if this has been mentioned yet, but Hyde-Smith's appointment makes Vermont the only state to never have been represented by a woman in Congress.

[Canis]

Espy finally has a website and social media
https://espyforsenate.com/
https://twitter.com/espyforsenate
https://www.instagram.com/espyforsenate/
https://www.facebook.com/espyforsenate
this took a little way too long to roll out
Shelton hasn't launched anything yet

[TheSaint250]

According to Shelton, he has a fiscally conservative record, such as not raising taxes. Is this true?

[Young Conservative]

According to Shelton, he has a fiscally conservative record, such as not raising taxes. Is this true?

I seriously doubt a technocratic Democrat will do well in MS

[OneJ]

According to Shelton, he has a fiscally conservative record, such as not raising taxes. Is this true?

Apparently, last year he proposed a $36,000,000+ budget that included a one percent raise in the salaries of city employees and did not require a tax increase.

Here’s his facebook: https://m.facebook.com/jasonleeshelton/

[TheSaint250]

According to Shelton, he has a fiscally conservative record, such as not raising taxes. Is this true?

Apparently, last year he proposed a $36,000,000+ budget that included a one percent raise in the salaries of city employees and did not require a tax increase.

Here’s his facebook: https://m.facebook.com/jasonleeshelton/

Thank you!

[Del Tachi]

Not related exactly tho this race, but a new poll by Millsaps University-Chism Strategies has a 44-37 split on whether Mississippi is on the "right track"/"wrong track".

Also interesting from the poll is that Reeves approvals are at 38-34, compared to 55-25 for Hood.  Seems to indicate that a 2019 gubernatorial match up between the two would be very competitive.

[Del Tachi]

In the poll, Espy carried 18 percent of white voters; 26 percent of white voters under age 35.

That's right on the line of a majority in a two-way race with decent black turnout, if those figures hold. Even in a three-way, he would have a shot of hitting 50 if black voters support him 95-5 and he gets 20% of the white vote.

This will need the AL touch, though. The black vote has to basically be 40% of the electorate for this to happen.

Blacks make up more of the total population of Mississippi than they do in Alabama, but Whites are even more polarized in Mississippi than they are in Alabama.

Cite?  They should be roughly identical.  Doug Jones' performance with White voters in AL was anything but typical. 

[Del Tachi]

The Mississippi Democratic primarh electorate 2008 was about 2/3’s black. The Democratic voter base is probably even  more black now, so I don’t see how Shelton can siphon enough black votes from Epsy or enough white votes from CHS to make it to the run-off. He’s the mayor of a small city of 40,000, hardly an influential political player.

Let's not sell Tupelo short - it's only of the largest cities in the state and is the hub of the whole Northeastern region.

I don't think Shelton will take many black votes away from Espy, other than those living in Tupelo, and will have to rely almost entirely on the white Northeasterners who mostly vote Republican but also vote for Hood and Presley. Actually getting those votes is a tall order, but it helps that CHS and McDaniel are pretty weak Republican candidates and from South Mississippi.

Correct.  I would rate Tupelo as probably the second or third most important "metro" in the entire state.  While its population is only 36,000 it has this wonky daytime population effect of over 50,000 additional workers.  It also has the third-highest sales tax revenue in the entire state (only behind Jackson and Hattiesburg).  The Daily Journal, Tupelo's daily newspaper, also has the second-largest circulation in the state (only behind the Clarion Ledger).

[Greedo punched first]

Any news on more candidates declaring?

[OneJ]

Not related exactly tho this race, but a new poll by Millsaps University-Chism Strategies has a 44-37 split on whether Mississippi is on the "right track"/"wrong track".

Also interesting from the poll is that Reeves approvals are at 38-34, compared to 55-25 for Hood.  Seems to indicate that a 2019 gubernatorial match up between the two would be very competitive.

Here's a little more information for those interested:
http://kingfish1935.blogspot.com/2018/04/millsaps-chism-survey-voters-like.html

Apparently, they recorded 67% percent of their respondents to be white and only 29% of respondents are black(!). How did that happen? Also, Trump is at 51% approval and 45% disapproval as well.