MS Megathread: Hyde-Smith wins by 8

[Greedo punched first]

The filing deadline passed. There will only be 5 candidates.

[Del Tachi]

Word on the ground is that WaPo writers have been reaching out to former McDaniel staffers (most likely from his 2014 campaign) to source a story about an affair McDaniel had with fellow state senator and campaign manager Melanie Sojourner.

[Young Conservative]

Word on the ground is that WaPo writers have been reaching out to former McDaniel staffers (most likely from his 2014 campaign) to source a story about an affair McDaniel had with fellow state senator and campaign manager Melanie Sojourner.

Why is this news though? I don’t support McDaniel (at all) but it seems more befitting for a tabloid rags  than a serious news story.

[Holmes]

Word on the ground is that WaPo writers have been reaching out to former McDaniel staffers (most likely from his 2014 campaign) to source a story about an affair McDaniel had with fellow state senator and campaign manager Melanie Sojourner.

Why is this news though? I don’t support McDaniel (at all) but it seems more befitting for a tabloid rags  than a serious news story.

WaPo won't publish the story if they can't verify it with multiple sources, unlike a tabloid rag.

[7,052,770]

Word on the ground is that WaPo writers have been reaching out to former McDaniel staffers (most likely from his 2014 campaign) to source a story about an affair McDaniel had with fellow state senator and campaign manager Melanie Sojourner.

Why is this news though? I don’t support McDaniel (at all) but it seems more befitting for a tabloid rags  than a serious news story.

Because he and his team made implications about Cochran in 2014 about his "affair," for one thing.

The flip side is that in the age of Trump, I doubt McDaniel supporters are going to particularly care even if McDaniel admits it.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

An Espy vs McDaniel runoff is the only way Democrats win here.

[7,052,770]

An Espy vs McDaniel runoff is the only way Democrats win here.

It's the only way that Espy wins, but I'm not ready to say that Shelton can't beat McDaniel, nor that he can't beat CHS.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

An Espy vs McDaniel runoff is the only way Democrats win here.

It's the only way that Espy wins, but I'm not ready to say that Shelton can't beat McDaniel, nor that he can't beat CHS.

Espy is probably better than Shelton. Shelton is a literal "Who"?

[7,052,770]

An Espy vs McDaniel runoff is the only way Democrats win here.

It's the only way that Espy wins, but I'm not ready to say that Shelton can't beat McDaniel, nor that he can't beat CHS.

Espy is probably better than Shelton. Shelton is a literal "Who"?

Shelton is the mayor of one of the largest and most important cities in the state. That's not even close to a "literal Who"

Additionally, Shelton's city (Tupelo) is the hub of the only part of the state (the Northeast) that has Republican voters who sometimes vote Democratic. Hood and Presley win because they get Republicans from that part of the state to cross over and vote for them.

As stated, there's no proof that Shelton will do as well as those two - he might be a total dud. But at least he fits the profile of someone who can win. He has a plausible path, while Espy would be in totally uncharted territory.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

An Espy vs McDaniel runoff is the only way Democrats win here.

It's the only way that Espy wins, but I'm not ready to say that Shelton can't beat McDaniel, nor that he can't beat CHS.

Espy is probably better than Shelton. Shelton is a literal "Who"?

Shelton is the mayor of one of the largest and most important cities in the state. That's not even close to a "literal Who"

Additionally, Shelton's city (Tupelo) is the hub of the only part of the state (the Northeast) that has Republican voters who sometimes vote Democratic. Hood and Presley win because they get Republicans from that part of the state to cross over and vote for them.

As stated, there's no proof that Shelton will do as well as those two - he might be a total dud. But at least he fits the profile of someone who can win. He has a plausible path, while Espy would be in totally uncharted territory.

Tupelo has a whopping population of 40,000. Not insignificant, but mostly irrelevant.


Getting higher black turnout & margins is more important than getting dixiecrats who only vote for local democrats and not federal democrats.

Also, dems already tried this strategy. Travis Childers tried to out conservative Thad Cochran, and while he did do better in NE MS, he ended up doing terribly overall because of terrible black margins & turnout for a democrat. And Childers represented MS in congress.

He lost by almost 30% compared to Obama's 10% loss. In Georgia, dems only did 1% worse than Obama's 2012 result.


Espy also has a better resume than Tupelo. Southern democratic parties need to stop nominating conservative white men as their nominee. It doesn't work anymore.

[7,052,770]

Tupelo has a whopping population of 40,000. Not insignificant, but mostly irrelevant.

I'm aware that in a lot of states that would rank pretty low, but Tupelo is a major city in Mississippi.

Getting higher black turnout & margins is more important than getting dixiecrats who only vote for local democrats and not federal democrats.

Also, dems already tried this strategy. Travis Childers tried to out conservative Thad Cochran, and while he did do better in NE MS, he ended up doing terribly overall because of terrible black margins & turnout for a democrat. And Childers represented MS in congress.

He lost by almost 30% compared to Obama's 10% loss. In Georgia, dems only did 1% worse than Obama's 2012 result.

I'm going to disagree on that one. No Democrat has ever won a statewide race in Mississippi with a "pump out the black vote strategy." The strategy that has worked sometimes is to convince Northeastern Republicans to cross over and vote. It doesn't always work (although faulting Childers for losing to a popular 6-term incumbent in 2014 is over the top), but it has some.

I think we can agree that this race would be at least Lean D, if not Likely D, if Hood were running. Shelton may not be Hood at all, but he fits the same description.

Espy also has a better resume than Tupelo. Southern democratic parties need to stop nominating conservative white men as their nominee. It doesn't work anymore.

It's been 25 years since Espy resigned from the Cabinet in disgrace and he hasn't done anything notable since then, except for in 2007 when he came out of nowhere to endorse Haley Barbour (R) for reelection and tried to parlay that into getting appointed to Trent Lott's seat as a Republican. The youngest person who ever voted for Espy for anything is now in his mid-40s. That's not an impressive resume.

I don't know how progressive or conservative Shelton is, because to my knowledge he's never revealed that, but I doubt he's much to the Right of Espy, if at all.

[Alabama_Indy10]

An Espy vs McDaniel runoff is the only way Democrats win here.

It's the only way that Espy wins, but I'm not ready to say that Shelton can't beat McDaniel, nor that he can't beat CHS.

Espy is probably better than Shelton. Shelton is a literal "Who"?

Shelton is the mayor of one of the largest and most important cities in the state. That's not even close to a "literal Who"

Additionally, Shelton's city (Tupelo) is the hub of the only part of the state (the Northeast) that has Republican voters who sometimes vote Democratic. Hood and Presley win because they get Republicans from that part of the state to cross over and vote for them.

As stated, there's no proof that Shelton will do as well as those two - he might be a total dud. But at least he fits the profile of someone who can win. He has a plausible path, while Espy would be in totally uncharted territory.

Tupelo has a whopping population of 40,000. Not insignificant, but mostly irrelevant.


Getting higher black turnout & margins is more important than getting dixiecrats who only vote for local democrats and not federal democrats.

Also, dems already tried this strategy. Travis Childers tried to out conservative Thad Cochran, and while he did do better in NE MS, he ended up doing terribly overall because of terrible black margins & turnout for a democrat. And Childers represented MS in congress.

He lost by almost 30% compared to Obama's 10% loss. In Georgia, dems only did 1% worse than Obama's 2012 result.


Espy also has a better resume than Tupelo. Southern democratic parties need to stop nominating conservative white men as their nominee. It doesn't work anymore.

I disagree with nearly everything you said in this post

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Mike Espy is well known in the state and was exonernated from wrong doing. He already has a 35/20 favorability despite not campaigning much yet. Clearly people in MS know & respect him, even with his past controversies. He's already getting 16% of whites in MS when the usual dem only gets 10%. He's not a random by any means. He was one of the best congressman from Mississippi and did fantastic work for farmers. He has a great message and can unite the people of MS well.

I would support Jim Hood over him, but Espy is a fantastic person and I'm tired of Atlas pooping on him over and over again. He's not just "generic black man" -- he's an accomplished individual. Atlas is just so obsessed with nominating random white people and it's infuriating. Jim Hood is an Attorney General; Shelton is just a mayor of a small city. Jim Hood is much better than Shelton lol.

Black people feel as if the democratic party does not care about them. The dem party absolutely needs to bring up black turnout if they want to do well in the south. Mike Espy's strong resume of fighting for civil rights & religious convictions will be a strong driver in the rural black south.


Look at Espy's website and his mission statement. It is a fantastic message.

Edit: Here's the kind of stuff I'm talking about when I say he really understands farmer issues... http://msbusiness.com/2018/04/mike-espy-ag-tariffs-we-should-be-careful-what-we-ask-for/

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Espy is getting more white voters than Travis Childers anyways, and obviously far more black voters.

[7,052,770]

Espy is getting more white voters than Travis Childers anyways, and obviously far more black voters.

Childers ran [halfheartedly, but we'll ignore that] in a horrible Democratic year against a popular 6-term incumbent. Of course he lost big.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Espy is getting more white voters than Travis Childers anyways, and obviously far more black voters.

Childers ran [halfheartedly, but we'll ignore that] in a horrible Democratic year against a popular 6-term incumbent. Of course he lost big.

Yeah, but he got more white voters than Obama (and Obama lost by only 11%)

My point is, Espy can get AT LEAST the same % of white voters as Childers get, and get close to (but probably not exactly) Obama turnout/margin among black voters.

[7,052,770]

Espy is getting more white voters than Travis Childers anyways, and obviously far more black voters.

Childers ran [halfheartedly, but we'll ignore that] in a horrible Democratic year against a popular 6-term incumbent. Of course he lost big.

Yeah, but he got more white voters than Obama (and Obama lost by only 11%)

My point is, Espy can get AT LEAST the same % of white voters as Childers get, and get close to (but probably not exactly) Obama turnout/margin among black voters.

And my point is that even that's true, it's still not enough. There is no plausible path to Espy winning a runoff other than "well maybe he could face off against McDaniel and then McDaniel could be so toxic that he blows it." Shelton at least has a plausible blueprint to victory that has worked for similar Democrats in Mississippi.


I feel the need to point out yet again that I like Espy fine. I just don't think he can win.

I find it very interesting how the Atlas is rallying around someone to the right of Manchin just because of his skin color.

[smoltchanov]

Tend to agree with previous poster. I never saw (in my rather long life) Black candidate winning statewide election in Mississippi, and, frankly speaking, don't expect to see one in coming years, except for really horrible candidate on Republican side (which McDaniel may turn to be, but CHS - surely no). And don't expect Espy to get better percentage among whites, then Childers got in his half-hearted attempt (again - against everyone, but McDaniel). So, if Democrats will insist on Espy as their candidate, they must pray for McDaniel being it's opponent.

[Del Tachi]

I've decided that unless McDaniel and CHS are in a close race come November, I'll be voting for Shelton in the first round.

[junior chįmp]

Big?

https://www.twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/993915123197661184

[KingSweden]

Big?

https://www.twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/993915123197661184

Espy sucked up all the oxygen

[Del Tachi]

Big?

https://www.twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/993915123197661184

Espy sucked up all the oxygen

This will probably most benefit CHS, who will not have to worry about Jason Shelton sucking up mostly White, moderate votes in Tupelo/NEMS in the first round.  I doubt these votes will be flowing to Espy. 

[Skill and Chance]

Looks like the odds of an R vs. R runoff just went way down. 

[BuckeyeNut]

Looks like the odds of an R vs. R runoff just went way down. 

So did the odds of a D v D runoff.

[Skill and Chance]

Looks like the odds of an R vs. R runoff just went way down. 

So did the odds of a D v D runoff.

That was completely implausible to begin with, with Hyde-Smith already in the seat.