MS Megathread: Hyde-Smith wins by 8

[smoltchanov]

^ Agree, it's surely possible. But considerable number of factors must coincide for that.. For example - even in nonpartisan election it's difficult for me to imagine 57% of vote going to Democratic candidates - Shelton must get a ton of Republican votes for that to happen..

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I like Espy but he doesn't seem to have done anything in the past month with his campaign.

[Del Tachi]

^ Agree, it's surely possible. But considerable number of factors must coincide for that.. For example - even in nonpartisan election it's difficult for me to imagine 57% of vote going to Democratic candidates - Shelton must get a ton of Republican votes for that to happen..

Yes it is quite a lift.  If anybody can do it thought its probably Shelton, Tupelo has long been one of the more Republican cities in the state.  But the biggest part of the puzzle would be CHS completely bungling her campaign and not being seen as viable by election day and McDaniel continuing to be unpalatable to a wide swath of Republican voters. 

[MAINEiac4434]

I like Espy but he doesn't seem to have done anything in the past month with his campaign.

Not even a website.

[_]

Shelton or Epsy better make the runoff, I'd be hoping for Shelton since it appears Epsy's Campaign is ran by the Invisible Woman.

[Doimper]

Yeah, what the hell is Espy doing? I haven't heard anything about him since he declared.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Yeah, what the hell is Espy doing? I haven't heard anything about him since he declared.

Apparently he and Amanda Renteria have the same campaign manager.

[7,052,770]

Since this presumably means Presley is out, I'd move the race back to Likely R, but this Republican bench is so weak I'll keep it at Lean for now. Very strange that both parties are keeping their big names out of an open U.S. Senate seat.

[smoltchanov]

Yeah, what the hell is Espy doing? I haven't heard anything about him since he declared.

He hopes Black vote will automatically put him into run-off. May be, but what will he do next?

[DemocraticKing]

Espy releases poll:

https://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/2018/04/03/poll-mike-espy-leading-cindy-hyde-smith-chris-mcdaniel-senate-race/482437002/

The poll of 603 likely general election voters shows Espy leading with 34 percent, Hyde-Smith with 27 percent and McDaniel at 21 percent.

In the poll, Espy carried 18 percent of white voters; 26 percent of white voters under age 35. His overall 34 percent in the poll included 63 percent of the African American vote. In its result summary to the campaign, Chism Strategies said historical vote patterns suggest Espy, if he's the only African American candidate, would carry 95 percent of that demographic in a general election.

The polling memo said Espy would need at least 22 percent of the "other" vote — largely white voters — but even then would need black voter turnout to be around 39 percent, which would match what happened in Alabama when Democrat Doug Jones defeated Republican Roy Moore.

Mississippi's black voter age population is 35 percent. The 2016 black voter turnout was YY percent. At that turnout level and assuming Espy wins 95 percent of the black vote, Chism Strategies said he would need 28 percent of all other voters to win.

The poll also showed Espy with high name ID, 94 percent, and a 44 percent approval rating, including 33 percent approval among white voters. The poll was weighted at 35 percent African American voters.

[Bidenworth2020]

Espy releases poll:

https://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/2018/04/03/poll-mike-espy-leading-cindy-hyde-smith-chris-mcdaniel-senate-race/482437002/

The poll of 603 likely general election voters shows Espy leading with 34 percent, Hyde-Smith with 27 percent and McDaniel at 21 percent.

In the poll, Espy carried 18 percent of white voters; 26 percent of white voters under age 35. His overall 34 percent in the poll included 63 percent of the African American vote. In its result summary to the campaign, Chism Strategies said historical vote patterns suggest Espy, if he's the only African American candidate, would carry 95 percent of that demographic in a general election.

The polling memo said Espy would need at least 22 percent of the "other" vote — largely white voters — but even then would need black voter turnout to be around 39 percent, which would match what happened in Alabama when Democrat Doug Jones defeated Republican Roy Moore.

Mississippi's black voter age population is 35 percent. The 2016 black voter turnout was YY percent. At that turnout level and assuming Espy wins 95 percent of the black vote, Chism Strategies said he would need 28 percent of all other voters to win.

The poll also showed Espy with high name ID, 94 percent, and a 44 percent approval rating, including 33 percent approval among white voters. The poll was weighted at 35 percent African American voters.

pretty good numbers, even for an internal

[Holmes]

They're... decent I guess. The Democrat will want to face McDaniel in the runoff.

This is probably more a reaction to Shelton declaring.

[Jeppe]

I think people are underestimating CHS. She’s ahead of McDaniel by 6 points in Epsy’s internal poll, and it seems like the White House is changing their mind on staying out of the race, CHS had another meeting there a few days ago to ease their concerns.

[smoltchanov]

Looking from Republican point of view - i don't see any real reasons for concern about CHS. Yes, she was a Democrat in legislature, but  - very conservative Democrat. In fact - more conservative, then at least some Republicans (i am ready to bet, that, for example, present Hattiesburg mayor and former Republican state representative Toby Barker, is more moderate, then she was even during her Democratic years). Not as conservative as McDaniel? Yes, but the same can be said about 85-90% of Republican caucus in state legislature. Then - what???

[OneJ]

According to this internal, Espy has 18% of the white vote. That’s pretty impressive since many black candidates normally don’t get above 10%. Obama got 11% in 2008 & 10% in 2012. Also in 2008, Fleming, a black candidate who ran against Cochran, got only 8% and ultimately lost to Cochran by a 61-39 margin. Luckily for Espy, black voters are less elastic than even Southern whites.

As for as why Espy has such high name recognition, he’s been on commercials by him being an attorney and all, so I was familiar with him long before this race.

While CHS may be underestimated, remember that we still have a very long time until November 6th and anything can happen, especially since Shelton has jumped into the race and Taggert is seriously considering about joining.

[Greedo punched first]

Cook changed the rating from safe R to likely R.

[Canis]

Espy is a surprisingly good candidate hopefully its him vs Mcdainel I believe he could take  Mcdaniel down

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Glad to see Espy in the race.

[Jeppe]

Taggart is not joining the race. Seems like Hyde-Smith is successfully consolidating the establishment Republicans behind her.

[Cactus Jack]

Taggart is not joining the race. Seems like Hyde-Smith is successfully consolidating the establishment Republicans behind her.

Just like Luther Strange.

[GlobeSoc]

This state is more rural than AL, and DeSoto county is batsh!t insane even though it isn't rural. McDaniel can get a runoff slot.

[Adam Griffin]

In the poll, Espy carried 18 percent of white voters; 26 percent of white voters under age 35.

That's right on the line of a majority in a two-way race with decent black turnout, if those figures hold. Even in a three-way, he would have a shot of hitting 50 if black voters support him 95-5 and he gets 20% of the white vote.

This will need the AL touch, though. The black vote has to basically be 40% of the electorate for this to happen.

[7,052,770]

This state is more rural than AL, and DeSoto county is batsh!t insane even though it isn't rural. McDaniel can get a runoff slot.

Yeah, each of the 4 candidates have a plausible path to the runoff right now, making this one of the most interesting senate races of the decade.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

In the poll, Espy carried 18 percent of white voters; 26 percent of white voters under age 35.

That's right on the line of a majority in a two-way race with decent black turnout, if those figures hold. Even in a three-way, he would have a shot of hitting 50 if black voters support him 95-5 and he gets 20% of the white vote.

This will need the AL touch, though. The black vote has to basically be 40% of the electorate for this to happen.

Blacks make up more of the total population of Mississippi than they do in Alabama, but Whites are even more polarized in Mississippi than they are in Alabama.

[Jeppe]

The Mississippi Democratic primarh electorate 2008 was about 2/3’s black. The Democratic voter base is probably even  more black now, so I don’t see how Shelton can siphon enough black votes from Epsy or enough white votes from CHS to make it to the run-off. He’s the mayor of a small city of 40,000, hardly an influential political player.