MS Megathread: Hyde-Smith wins by 8

[Arkansas Yankee]

If Bryant has to make an appointment in January, I think he'd be very likely to go with a placeholder - setting up a potentially nasty GOP primary between McDaniel, Stacey Pickering and Gregg Harper.

Are Harper and Wicker both from the 1st District?  Wouldn’t that be dangerous.
Would McDaniel run as well now as he did against Cochran?

Harper is from Metro Jackson and is the former chairman of the Rankin County GOP, so he has very strong fundraising base that makes him a formidable candidate.

McDaniel would benefit from good statewide recognition and a probable Bannon endorsement, but I think he's damaged goods - however, in a crowded primary its likely that he would get through. 

There would be a runoff right?

[OneJ]

If Bryant has to make an appointment in January, I think he'd be very likely to go with a placeholder - setting up a potentially nasty GOP primary between McDaniel, Stacey Pickering and Gregg Harper.

Are Harper and Wicker both from the 1st District?  Wouldn’t that be dangerous.
Would McDaniel run as well now as he did against Cochran?

Harper is from Metro Jackson and is the former chairman of the Rankin County GOP, so he has very strong fundraising base that makes him a formidable candidate.

McDaniel would benefit from good statewide recognition and a probable Bannon endorsement, but I think he's damaged goods - however, in a crowded primary its likely that he would get through. 

There would be a runoff right?

If no one gets over 50%, yes.

[Del Tachi]

If Bryant has to make an appointment in January, I think he'd be very likely to go with a placeholder - setting up a potentially nasty GOP primary between McDaniel, Stacey Pickering and Gregg Harper.

Are Harper and Wicker both from the 1st District?  Wouldn’t that be dangerous.
Would McDaniel run as well now as he did against Cochran?

Harper is from Metro Jackson and is the former chairman of the Rankin County GOP, so he has very strong fundraising base that makes him a formidable candidate.

McDaniel would benefit from good statewide recognition and a probable Bannon endorsement, but I think he's damaged goods - however, in a crowded primary its likely that he would get through. 

There would be a runoff right?

If no one gets over 50%, yes.

However, I just realized that the fact that this is a nonpartisan special election changes the dynamic drastically.  That means if the Dems run a semi-decent candidate they’re almost guaranteed a runoff spot due to the high floor provided by Black voters.  The top Republican after him would most likely get the other spot, with almost no possibility for an R vs R runoff.

In this case a Presley vs McDaniel general is almost a certainty should both of these candidates run.  In this case, Bryant’s best move might be to appoint someone like Harper in an attempt to hold the seat (assuming that Bryant is completely opposed to the idea of a Senator McDaniel, which I’m not certain of).

[OneJ]

If Bryant has to make an appointment in January, I think he'd be very likely to go with a placeholder - setting up a potentially nasty GOP primary between McDaniel, Stacey Pickering and Gregg Harper.

Are Harper and Wicker both from the 1st District?  Wouldn’t that be dangerous.
Would McDaniel run as well now as he did against Cochran?

Harper is from Metro Jackson and is the former chairman of the Rankin County GOP, so he has very strong fundraising base that makes him a formidable candidate.

McDaniel would benefit from good statewide recognition and a probable Bannon endorsement, but I think he's damaged goods - however, in a crowded primary its likely that he would get through. 

There would be a runoff right?

If no one gets over 50%, yes.

However, I just realized that the fact that this is a nonpartisan special election changes the dynamic drastically.  That means if the Dems run a semi-decent candidate they’re almost guaranteed a runoff spot due to the high floor provided by Black voters.  The top Republican after him would most likely get the other spot, with almost no possibility for an R vs R runoff.

In this case a Presley vs McDaniel general is almost a certainty should both of these candidates run.  In this case, Bryant’s best move might be to appoint someone like Harper in an attempt to hold the seat (assuming that Bryant is completely opposed to the idea of a Senator McDaniel, which I’m not certain of).

I think you just made very good points. Also, I guess it should be taken into account that runoffs more often than not produce lower turnout than previous elections besides the Republican primary of 2014. That should, I assume, help whoever the Democratic candidate would be, which would likely be Presley in this case.

As of now, I see Bryant going the safe route and appointing someone like Harper as you've mentioned, but it does make me wonder what Bryant thinks of McDaniel.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hope he does

[gespb19]

If Bryant has to make an appointment in January, I think he'd be very likely to go with a placeholder - setting up a potentially nasty GOP primary between McDaniel, Stacey Pickering and Gregg Harper.

Are Harper and Wicker both from the 1st District?  Wouldn’t that be dangerous.
Would McDaniel run as well now as he did against Cochran?

Harper is from Metro Jackson and is the former chairman of the Rankin County GOP, so he has very strong fundraising base that makes him a formidable candidate.

McDaniel would benefit from good statewide recognition and a probable Bannon endorsement, but I think he's damaged goods - however, in a crowded primary its likely that he would get through. 

There would be a runoff right?

If no one gets over 50%, yes.

However, I just realized that the fact that this is a nonpartisan special election changes the dynamic drastically.  That means if the Dems run a semi-decent candidate they’re almost guaranteed a runoff spot due to the high floor provided by Black voters.  The top Republican after him would most likely get the other spot, with almost no possibility for an R vs R runoff.

In this case a Presley vs McDaniel general is almost a certainty should both of these candidates run.  In this case, Bryant’s best move might be to appoint someone like Harper in an attempt to hold the seat (assuming that Bryant is completely opposed to the idea of a Senator McDaniel, which I’m not certain of).

Heard Reeves might be appointed. Could be a Reeves/Presley/McDaniel race with maybe 1-2 other people that run but won’t have a chance.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Barbour is pretty much the personification of the Swamp, and Double Down hinted that he had “peccadilloes” in his past, which is usually a beltway political journalist euphemism for extramarital affairs, so I doubt he could make it through a primary these days: he’d probably lose to McDaniel or another bomb-thrower.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Thad Cochran should definitely retire. He's old, half senile, and was never in the greatest condition even when he was younger, apparently being an alcoholic in the 80s.
Presley does seem like the most likely democratic candidate, and McDaniel came damn near to winning last time for the GOP, so he might very well win their nomination this time. In the sort of environment we're having, in a democratic wave year, I'd be predicting Presley by 1 or 2, but right now it's still probably Lean R if it occurs. Wicker vs. Mabus in the national environment we're having is probably Wicker by 8, Likely R, going to Lean D if Hood decides to jump in.

[Landslide Lyndon]

He may resign in January https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/21/mississippi-senate-thad-cochran-future-in-doubt-308157

That's a week old article which has been discussed to death.

[Greedo punched first]

If Cochran resigns, will the primary be in June?

[MarkD]

Cochran was 35 years old the first time he was sworn in as a member of the House in Jan. 1973, so he has spent more than half of his life serving as a member of Congress, House and Senate service combined.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Cochran was 35 years old the first time he was sworn in as a member of the House in Jan. 1973, so he has spent more than half of his life serving as a member of Congress, House and Senate service combined.

Yeah, it's really time for him to retire.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Cochran was 35 years old the first time he was sworn in as a member of the House in Jan. 1973, so he has spent more than half of his life serving as a member of Congress, House and Senate service combined.

When John Dingell retired, he had spent over 2/3rds of his life in the House.

[Doimper]

Cochran was 35 years old the first time he was sworn in as a member of the House in Jan. 1973, so he has spent more than half of his life serving as a member of Congress, House and Senate service combined.

When John Dingell retired, he had spent over 2/3rds of his life in the House.

He's still going strong on Twitter, too. Kind of wish he'd have stayed in the House, although he definitely deserves retirement.

[7,052,770]

All of yall are wrong. Cochran should stay in the Senate, and if he's still alive, run again in 2020.

[RogueBeaver]

If he resigns, his successor won't be Harper.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

If he resigns, his successor won't be Harper.

Maybe he's prepping a governor run while Reeves takes the Senate seat?

[Ye We Can]

If he resigns, his successor won't be Harper.

Maybe he's prepping a governor run while Reeves takes the Senate seat?

Frankly I think if he wanted to run for something he would of just stayed. I think Harper is out for good.

[KingSweden]

If he resigns, his successor won't be Harper.

Stacy Pickering?

[Free Bird]

Any possibility of Lott as a caretaker?

[Greedo punched first]

Any possibility of Lott as a caretaker?

No. Lott himself resigned.

[Del Tachi]

Brandon Presley won't be a candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018.


Also, is there any way to rename this thread something like:  "MS 2018 Megathread?"  Most of the discussion here has strayed from the original topic (a possible Cochran resignation) and we could even combine the thread on Harper's retirement with this one.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Brandon Presley won't be a candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018.


Also, is there any way to rename this thread something like:  "MS 2018 Megathread?"  Most of the discussion here has strayed from the original topic (a possible Cochran resignation) and we could even combine the thread on Harper's retirement with this one.

Against Wicker, he never said he wouldn’t run in a special.

[Del Tachi]

Brandon Presley won't be a candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018.


Also, is there any way to rename this thread something like:  "MS 2018 Megathread?"  Most of the discussion here has strayed from the original topic (a possible Cochran resignation) and we could even combine the thread on Harper's retirement with this one.

Against Wicker, he never said he wouldn’t run in a special.

Eh, he doesn't mention anything about Wicker specifically.  And his statement is construed in such a way that is a pretty inclusive 'no' about going to Washington at all this year. 

Also, I don't think we'll be getting a special election this year.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Brandon Presley won't be a candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018.


Also, is there any way to rename this thread something like:  "MS 2018 Megathread?"  Most of the discussion here has strayed from the original topic (a possible Cochran resignation) and we could even combine the thread on Harper's retirement with this one.

Against Wicker, he never said he wouldn’t run in a special.

Eh, he doesn't mention anything about Wicker specifically.  And his statement is construed in such a way that is a pretty inclusive 'no' about going to Washington at all this year. 

Also, I don't think we'll be getting a special election this year.

What's the latest date that Cochran could resign that would still allow/require a special election this year?