MS Megathread: Hyde-Smith wins by 8

[Virginiá]

State Sen. Deborah Jeanne Dawkins should run for whichever seat Presley does not run for. She is to the left of the state but represents a right-leaning district outside of the metro area and has won three tough races with strong fundraising.

THE most liberal white state Senator in Mississippi, and one of the most liberal overall? Well, i have doubts...

If your ultimate goal is to capture one of the two seats up, wouldn't it make sense to run a conservative candidate (assuming Presley is, I don't really know), and then a more liberal one? They each bring out constituencies that would be useful to the other, but in Presley's case, he would get conservative voters for him and her liberal voters would also go for him, even if she doesn't ultimately win.

[LeRaposa]

Jim Hood should run if Cochran resigns. No reason not to.

[KingSweden]

State Sen. Deborah Jeanne Dawkins should run for whichever seat Presley does not run for. She is to the left of the state but represents a right-leaning district outside of the metro area and has won three tough races with strong fundraising.

surely Mabus, if not Hood, would be better.

Mabus would be easily tied to the Obama admin. Against McDaniel or somebody similar he would likely win but against Wicker or a different clean R he would not be the ideal candidate.

Hood I understand is far more interested in the governorship.

Dawkins appears to have experience winning over the right-leaning voters she would need to win statewide. Her State Senate district overlaps with multiple State House districts that are represented by R's, I can't find 2016 results by state Senate district but the county she is within voted for Trump 64-33 and the National Voter File estimates that the district is 40-33-27 R-D-I.

A second good reason Mabus wouldn’t be ideal

[Landslide Lyndon]

Jim Hood should run if Cochran resigns. No reason not to.

Yes there is a reason. He wants to run for governor.

[Pollster]

I've found the results by Senate district. In 2015, Hawkins won 54-46. In 2016, Trump carried the district 51-49 as he was winning statewide 58-40. Obama carried it 52-48 as Romney was winning statewide 55-44.

Interesting that she is the state's most liberal senator but has won numerous off-year, low-turnout elections in a swing district.

[LeRaposa]

Jim Hood should run if Cochran resigns. No reason not to.

Yes there is a reason. He wants to run for governor.

If he runs for Senate and loses then he's still Attorney General and can try running for Governor. After all people might vote for a Democrat for Governor but not necessarily for Senator.

[gespb19]

Reeves vs. McDaniel vs. Presley in the special.

[Cactus Jack]

Yeah, this is the seat McDaniel wants. He's gonna bounce from the Wicker race as soon as the special election is called.

[Free Bird]

Yeah, this is the seat McDaniel wants. He's gonna bounce from the Wicker race as soon as the special election is called.

Probably. I wouldn't rule out Bryant appointing him to it just to shut him up.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Yeah, this is the seat McDaniel wants. He's gonna bounce from the Wicker race as soon as the special election is called.

Probably. I wouldn't rule out Bryant appointing him to it just to shut him up.

I don't see Bryant appointing McDaniel.

[smoltchanov]

State Sen. Deborah Jeanne Dawkins should run for whichever seat Presley does not run for. She is to the left of the state but represents a right-leaning district outside of the metro area and has won three tough races with strong fundraising.

THE most liberal white state Senator in Mississippi, and one of the most liberal overall? Well, i have doubts...

If your ultimate goal is to capture one of the two seats up, wouldn't it make sense to run a conservative candidate (assuming Presley is, I don't really know), and then a more liberal one? They each bring out constituencies that would be useful to the other, but in Presley's case, he would get conservative voters for him and her liberal voters would also go for him, even if she doesn't ultimately win.

In exactly such case - yes.

[Pollster]

If Dawkins is as liberal as you say (not familiar with her voting record) then running her against Wicker while Presley runs against McDaniel would be an incredibly smart move. Wicker likely won't lose regardless of who his opponent is, but Dawkins on the ticket would help bring out likely Presley voters that he would need to win but might have trouble turning out (liberals/voters from the Southern portion of the state). It would also prime Dawkins for a future run, possibly for House or LG.

[smoltchanov]

If Dawkins is as liberal as you say (not familiar with her voting record) then running her against Wicker while Presley runs against McDaniel would be an incredibly smart move. Wicker likely won't lose regardless of who his opponent is, but Dawkins on the ticket would help bring out likely Presley voters that he would need to win but might have trouble turning out (liberals/voters from the Southern portion of the state). It would also prime Dawkins for a future run, possibly for House or LG.

Dawkins will NOT be elected neither to House (the only House district in Mississippi that can elect Democrat now is majority Black 2nd) nor to LG (she is far too liberal for any statewide post). 20 years from now - may be. But she is not so young to wait that long. State Senate seat is her upper limit for foreseable future.

[YE]

Is Dawkins socially liberal? Or fiscally liberal/socially conservative? The latter is fine as I'm sure not 100% of MS whites are fiscally conservative, and maybe economic populism could appeal to say 15% of whites needed to win statewide. The former would not end well. 

[IceSpear]

Is Dawkins socially liberal? Or fiscally liberal/socially conservative? The latter is fine as I'm sure not 100% of MS whites are fiscally conservative, and maybe economic populism could appeal to say 15% of whites needed to win statewide. The former would not end well. 

She's from Eastern Ukraine.

[smoltchanov]

Is Dawkins socially liberal? Or fiscally liberal/socially conservative? The latter is fine as I'm sure not 100% of MS whites are fiscally conservative, and maybe economic populism could appeal to say 15% of whites needed to win statewide. The former would not end well. 

Usually she was considered to be mostly liberal on both fiscal and social matters. The only thing, that forces me to doubt somewhat. is this year ACU rating, where she suddenly turned to be "one of the most conservative Democratic state Senators for 2017" (though with modest 47% rating). But, looking at

americanlegislatures.com

data - she is rather strongly liberal...

[Pollster]

Doing some further research - ardently pro-choice and pro-medical marijuana, both positions far to the left of the state I'm assuming. She does have a prolific background as a surgical technician, so a campaign focused on healthcare (and throw in some economic populism) could lend her some strength.

[smoltchanov]

Doing some further research - ardently pro-choice and pro-medical marijuana, both positions far to the left of the state I'm assuming. She does have a prolific background as a surgical technician, so a campaign focused on healthcare (and throw in some economic populism) could lend her some strength.

Probably - already did in her state Senate races. But - statewide or congressional race is sure no....

[YE]

Doing some further research - ardently pro-choice and pro-medical marijuana, both positions far to the left of the state I'm assuming. She does have a prolific background as a surgical technician, so a campaign focused on healthcare (and throw in some economic populism) could lend her some strength.

Pro-choice is a no no statewide in MS for obvious reasons, so I guess he is out.

[Suburbia]

Sen. Thad Cochran should resign from the Senate peacefully. He has been in office as a Senator since 1979, the end of the turbulent 1970s.

I see Cochran resigning Jan. 8 and his interim successor will be former Gov. Haley Barbour, who is a shrewd Southern conservative.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Sen. Thad Cochran should resign from the Senate peacefully. He has been in office as a Senator since 1979, the end of the turbulent 1970s.

I see Cochran resigning Jan. 8 and his interim successor will be former Gov. Haley Barbour, who is a shrewd Southern conservative.

Not disagreeing, but Barbour is pretty old. I guess with a safe seat it's alright to hand it to someone unlikely to serve more than one full term though.

The seat might not be safe in a D wave year with a strong Democratic candidate.

[Suburbia]

Sen. Thad Cochran should resign from the Senate peacefully. He has been in office as a Senator since 1979, the end of the turbulent 1970s.

I see Cochran resigning Jan. 8 and his interim successor will be former Gov. Haley Barbour, who is a shrewd Southern conservative.

Not disagreeing, but Barbour is pretty old. I guess with a safe seat it's alright to hand it to someone unlikely to serve more than one full term though.

The seat might not be safe in a D wave year with a strong Democratic candidate.

True. Southern Democrats could make a comeback in the Trump era, which was surprising.

[Del Tachi]

If Bryant has to make an appointment in January, I think he'd be very likely to go with a placeholder - setting up a potentially nasty GOP primary between McDaniel, Stacey Pickering and Gregg Harper.

[Arkansas Yankee]

If Bryant has to make an appointment in January, I think he'd be very likely to go with a placeholder - setting up a potentially nasty GOP primary between McDaniel, Stacey Pickering and Gregg Harper.

Are Harper and Wicker both from the 1st District?  Wouldn’t that be dangerous.
Would McDaniel run as well now as he did against Cochran?

[Del Tachi]

If Bryant has to make an appointment in January, I think he'd be very likely to go with a placeholder - setting up a potentially nasty GOP primary between McDaniel, Stacey Pickering and Gregg Harper.

Are Harper and Wicker both from the 1st District?  Wouldn’t that be dangerous.
Would McDaniel run as well now as he did against Cochran?

Harper is from Metro Jackson and is the former chairman of the Rankin County GOP, so he has very strong fundraising base that makes him a formidable candidate.

McDaniel would benefit from good statewide recognition and a probable Bannon endorsement, but I think he's damaged goods - however, in a crowded primary its likely that he would get through.