Trump approval ratings thread 1.2

[BudgieForce]

Rasmussen 1/14

Approve: 46
Disapprove: 52

Keeps going up, sh*thole and all.

Because its effing Rasmussen. The same Rasmussen tracking poll that had Trump up the entire 2016 election. Theres a reason they have a C on fivethirtyeight, because they're untrustworthy.

[Tender Branson]

In raw numbers, 100 million Americans above voting age still approve of Trump.

That's based on the current 39-40% approval rating and the 254 million Americans over 18 (or 261 million by 2020).

That's 60% more than the 63 million that voted for him.

[Holmes]

So with Gallup's daily gone, Rass is the poll Atlas obsess over every day now? Great.

[LimoLiberal]

Gallup 1/14

Approve: 38 (+1)
Disapprove: 57 (-1)

I think its fair to say that Trump has made serious headway since early December, even with all the various "scandals".

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup 1/14

Approve: 38 (+1)
Disapprove: 57 (-1)

I think its fair to say that Trump has made serious headway since early December, even with all the various "scandals".

He had a few days in early December in the same ballpark, but it's certainly true that he's improved from his overall December standing. 

I would characterize it as he's recovered to his November levels after a December dip.

[KingSweden]

Gallup 1/14

Approve: 38 (+1)
Disapprove: 57 (-1)

I think its fair to say that Trump has made serious headway since early December, even with all the various "scandals".

He had a few days in early December in the same ballpark, but it's certainly true that he's improved from his overall December standing. 

I would characterize it as he's recovered to his November levels after a December dip.

He seems to have a fairly stable range. A floor of about 36, and a ceiling of about 40. I doubt we see him outside either of those top and bottom ranges for any significant amount of time.

[BudgieForce]

Putting LimoLiberals hot take aside, he's been fairly stable for months outside of a few dips and uptakes. He's been in mid to high 30s since May. "Serious headway" as Limoliberal put is frustrating to read seeing as how his approval ratings have been an almost straight line for over 6 months.

[pbrower2a]

Putting LimoLiberals hot take aside, he's been fairly stable for months outside of a few dips and uptakes. He's been in mid to high 30s since May. "Serious headway" as Limoliberal put is frustrating to read seeing as how his approval ratings have been an almost straight line for over 6 months.

Those who disliked him early have typically had one affront after another added to their contempt of this President.  If you 'disapproved' of him in February of last year, then you might have gone to 'strong disapproval' in the spring and found simply one more cause after another to disapprove of him. Pollsters don't have such categories as  'very strongly disapprove', let alone 'wish he were dead'. Donald Trump is a programmatic right-winger, and he has made no concessions on any issue that liberals or leftists might appreciate. He supports policies that punish those in demographics that hold him in contempt.

Approval rates can usually rise against 'undecided', but 'disapproval' is sticky downward. Disapproval can go up with some egregious misdeed; it is too early to discuss the President's reference to certain countries as (vile word for toilets) for a lasting effect. One thing is sure: his approval ratings cannot fall much more, and his disapproval rate can  hardly increase, among blacks and Hispanics.

Now here is his problem: it is nearly impossible for any politician to win re-election with a disapproval rating that has ever gone above 50% in a binary, honest election. Politicians campaign to consolidate wavering support (and usually must), but they can never win back people who think those pols awful. This applies to the Presidency in statewide elections. I saw Obama recover from 51% disapproval to win Ohio in his re-election bid... I see Trump less effective as a campaigner than Obama, so if I ever see a 51% disapproval of President Trump in Ohio, then I can predict with a high level of confidence that he will not win Ohio -- no matter how far that poll comes before the 2020 election in a binary election.

Possible exceptions:

1. there be some split of the vote on the Left
2. the 2020 Presidential election be rigged 

[BudgieForce]

Minnesota: http://m.startribune.com/minnesotans-divided-over-trump-majority-see-him-as-temperamentally-unfit-dishonest/469161193/?section=politics
Approve:45%
Disapprove:47%

I doubt it but throw it in the average.

[pbrower2a]

Minnesota: http://m.startribune.com/minnesotans-divided-over-trump-majority-see-him-as-temperamentally-unfit-dishonest/469161193/?section=politics
Approve:45%
Disapprove:47%

I doubt it but throw it in the average.

The analysis says that people in iron-mining country in northern Minnesota expect good things from the Trump economy, steel production depending up-on Minnesota iron mines that have been... underutilized. Labor unions are weakening in America...

Iron mining took a big fall in northern Minnesota, and Trump promises a return of jobs that used to exist. That he is a blustering, crass, elitist bigot matters less to such people than does the promise of jobs. 

Minnesota used to be a safe haven for Democrats in part because of the miners. The same used to be so in West Virginia.  It is hard to believe that Minnesota, the only state that voted against Reagan in 1984 could have made such a lurch to the Right as it has. But it was one of Obama's weakest wins in 2008, and almost voted for Trump in 2016.

Democrats  beware.   

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Minnesota: http://m.startribune.com/minnesotans-divided-over-trump-majority-see-him-as-temperamentally-unfit-dishonest/469161193/?section=politics
Approve:45%
Disapprove:47%

I doubt it but throw it in the average.

The analysis says that people in iron-mining country in northern Minnesota expect good things from the Trump economy, steel production depending up-on Minnesota iron mines that have been... underutilized. Labor unions are weakening in America...

Iron mining took a big fall in northern Minnesota, and Trump promises a return of jobs that used to exist. That he is a blustering, crass, elitist bigot matters less to such people than does the promise of jobs. 

Minnesota used to be a safe haven for Democrats in part because of the miners. The same used to be so in West Virginia.  It is hard to believe that Minnesota, the only state that voted against Reagan in 1984 could have made such a lurch to the Right as it has. But it was one of Obama's weakest wins in 2008, and almost voted for Trump in 2016.

Democrats  beware.   

We're already seeing evidence that Trump isn't delivering on coal and steel jobs.

[King Lear]

Latest Rasmussen Survey:
Approval: 46%
Disapproval: 52%
These are the best numbers Trump has had in months, this shows that Trumps use of Racially divisive rhetoric (the s**thole comment) is mobilizing White Conservatives behind him, and could prove devastating for Democrats this year when they have to defend 10 senate seats and 12 house seats that Trump won and that are filled with White Conservatives mobilized by his divisive rhetoric.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Latest Rasmussen Survey:
Approval: 46%
Disapproval: 52%
These are the best numbers Trump has had in months, this shows that Trumps use of Racial divisive rhetoric (the s**thole comment) is mobilizing White Conservatives behind him, and could prove devastating for Democrats this year when they have to defend 10 senate seats and 12 house seats that Trump won and that are filled with White Conservatives mobilized by his divisive rhetoric.

Dream on.

[Dr. Arch]

Minnesota: http://m.startribune.com/minnesotans-divided-over-trump-majority-see-him-as-temperamentally-unfit-dishonest/469161193/?section=politics
Approve:45%
Disapprove:47%

I doubt it but throw it in the average.

Yeah... that's way off base when compared to even neighboring states or the national average. It'd be really disappointing if it's the case.

[BudgieForce]

Minnesota: http://m.startribune.com/minnesotans-divided-over-trump-majority-see-him-as-temperamentally-unfit-dishonest/469161193/?section=politics
Approve:45%
Disapprove:47%

I doubt it but throw it in the average.

Yeah... that's way off base when compared to even neighboring states or the national average. It'd be really disappointing if it's the case.

538 rates Star Tribune polls at C+, meaning they probably aren't very accurate. I'm more keen to call it junk now. 

[pbrower2a]

Minnesota: http://m.startribune.com/minnesotans-divided-over-trump-majority-see-him-as-temperamentally-unfit-dishonest/469161193/?section=politics
Approve:45%
Disapprove:47%

I doubt it but throw it in the average.

Yeah... that's way off base when compared to even neighboring states or the national average. It'd be really disappointing if it's the case.

538 rates Star Tribune polls at C+, meaning they probably aren't very accurate. I'm more keen to call it junk now.  

A fair warning. This is about as unlikely as the 35-61 approval poll in Iowa a month or so ago...  Note also the 8% undecided, which is unusually high.

Minnesota: http://m.startribune.com/minnesotans-divided-over-trump-majority-see-him-as-temperamentally-unfit-dishonest/469161193/?section=politics
Approve:45%
Disapprove:47%

I doubt it but throw it in the average.

The analysis says that people in iron-mining country in northern Minnesota expect good things from the Trump economy, steel production depending up-on Minnesota iron mines that have been... underutilized. Labor unions are weakening in America...

Iron mining took a big fall in northern Minnesota, and Trump promises a return of jobs that used to exist. That he is a blustering, crass, elitist bigot matters less to such people than does the promise of jobs.  

Minnesota used to be a safe haven for Democrats in part because of the miners. The same used to be so in West Virginia.  It is hard to believe that Minnesota, the only state that voted against Reagan in 1984 could have made such a lurch to the Right as it has. But it was one of Obama's weakest wins in 2008, and almost voted for Trump in 2016.

Democrats  beware.  

We're already seeing evidence that Trump isn't delivering on coal and steel jobs.

Minnesota isn't coal country. It's mining is of iron ore.

To get those iron-and-steel (and iron-mining jobs!) Donald Trump needs to get a big infrastructure program. The biggest variable use of  iron, steel, and iron ore is in construction -- not vehicles, and not manufacturing equipment. Highways use reinforced concrete. Bridges really, really, really use steel. The glass-box skyscrapers rely heavily upon steel for the structure.  Construction of all kinds is a boom-and-bust activity.

We don't know what the infrastructure bill will be. It could be full of poison pills that will make Democratic support impossible.  In such a case President Trump might get nothing and disappoint everyone.

This poll suggests that Minnesota will be within reach in 2020 for a Republican nominee for President. But failure to get the infrastructure bill will kill Trump politically, at least in Minnesota, one of the states whose fortune is most closely linked to infrastructure spending.

  

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Trump is also moving forward with a plan to open up natural resource mines, specifically copper, in the Iron Range and Northern Minnesota that Obama refused to renew: https://www.mprnews.org/story/2017/12/22/twin-metals-mn-copper-mine-alive-fed

RIP Rick Nolan?

[Brittain33]

Latest Rasmussen Survey:
Approval: 46%
Disapproval: 52%
These are the best numbers Trump has had in months,

Trump has periodically had 45-46% in Rasmussen while having much lower numbers in other polls.

[American2020]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nation-tracker-americans-weigh-in-on-trump-immigration-remarks-first-year-in-office/

[LimoLiberal]

Minnesota: http://m.startribune.com/minnesotans-divided-over-trump-majority-see-him-as-temperamentally-unfit-dishonest/469161193/?section=politics
Approve:45%
Disapprove:47%

Wow.

[KingSweden]

Those working against numbers are brutal

[LimoLiberal]

Those working against numbers are brutal

*Among African Americans

Actually better than I expected.

[KingSweden]

Those working against numbers are brutal

*Among African Americans

Actually better than I expected.

Ah didn’t see that part.

[Gass3268]

Wow looks like Iowa is moving hard to the left as Minnesota moves to the right!

[BudgieForce]

Those working against numbers are brutal

*Among African Americans

Actually better than I expected.

You are a frustrating poster.