Trump approval ratings thread 1.2

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

An old poll taken for the rightwing Wisconsin Manufactures & Commerce by the rightwing leaning Tarrance Group:

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Baldwin will win.

[LimoLiberal]

An old poll taken for the rightwing Wisconsin Manufactures & Commerce by the rightwing leaning Tarrance Group:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Baldwin will win.

A right-wing poll shows Baldwin with a better approval rating than Morning Consult: https://morningconsult.com/2017/10/31/americas-most-and-least-popular-senators-october-2017/

Not to mention their president is deeply unpopular in a state he won by 0.7 points.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

When did LimoLiberal become logical?

[GeorgiaModerate]

When did LimoLiberal become logical?

He had a change of heart (or a personality transplant) around the New Year.

[KingSweden]

I ed up

Nah, its fine. I was a horrible poster before so it can only be expected that people think that I'm still trolling.

What prompted your change in approach?

It was pretty much a new years resolution.

All the trolling was me pretty much venting my anxiety about the 2018 midterms and life in general.

This may not mean much from a stranger on the Internet, but: that kind of self assessment and making those adjustments is an admirable trait, and you should be proud of yourself for taking these steps, even if it’s something as small in changing your approach to posting on an elections forum. These things cascade out to all aspects of life and learning to handle your anxiety/mood (when I was a teenager I had intense anger problems) will make you a happier and more fulfilled person given time.

[pbrower2a]

Neighboring states.

Iowa, PPP: http://qctimes.com/iowa-survey-results/pdf_a408c93d-7c57-5789-ac42-839c5d595530.html

President Trump Approval Rating

Approve: 44
Disapprove: 51

Very, very different from the 60-35 poll we saw from Selzer. Still not a good number in a state he won by 9 points.

An old poll taken for the rightwing Wisconsin Manufactures & Commerce by the rightwing leaning Tarrance Group:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Baldwin will win.

A right-wing poll shows Baldwin with a better approval rating than Morning Consult: https://morningconsult.com/2017/10/31/americas-most-and-least-popular-senators-october-2017/

Not to mention their president is deeply unpopular in a state he won by 0.7 points.

Here is the 2017 map of Cook PVI.  With a 50-50 split of the popular vote, a PVI of D+6 (Connecticut) means that the Democrat can expect to get 56% of the popular vote from Connecticut and that a PVI of R+9 (Indiana) indicates that one can reasonably expect the Republican to win 59% of the popular vote in Indiana. Districts of Maine and Nebraska are shown as their Congressional districts vote for members of Congress. DC? I'm guessing that the Democrat is going to win about 90% of the vote in just about any election, so that is about D+40.  

Color and intensity will indicate the variance from a tie (ties will be in white) with  in a 50-50 election with blue for an R lean and red for a D lean. Numbers will be shown except in individual districts

int      var
2        1-4%
3        5-8%
5        9-12%
7        13-19%
9        20% or more

DC -- way out of reach for any Republican.

ME-01 D+8
ME-02 R+2

NE-01 R+11
NE-02 R+4
NE-03 R+27

(data from Wikipedia, map mine)
 I use 100-DIS as a reasonable ceiling for the Trump vote in 2020. Thus:

Lightest shades are for a raw total of votes that allows for a win with a margin of 5% or less; middle shades are for totals with allow for wins with 6 to 10% margins; deepest shades are for vote percentages that allow wins of 10% or more. Numbers are for the projected vote for Trump.  

100-DIS gives a reasonable ceiling for Trump in 2020 -- at least the most suitable one that I can think of. He may have won Iowa by nearly ten points, but he would be crushed there if an election were to be held there today. The recent poll suggests that the President has disappointed Iowa voters very much.

An assumption of a close race for President depends upon most states being close to their Cook PVI ratings. So how is that going?

Use green for a poll that diverges in favor of Trump's likely opponent, and orange for polls that  that diverge to the favor of Trump. Use light shades for divergence of 4% or less, medium for 5% to 8%, and dark shades for 9% or more.  For example, I show a ceiling of 48% for Trump in Alabama in a state that usually gives the average Republican a 14% edge in a 50-50 election. Trump would be reasonably expected to win Alabama by about 14%, but my measure (100-DIS)  suggests that Trump would fare worse by about 12% for the average Republican in a 50-50 election.  
 
  

Sixteen states with recent polls... slightly fewer than one third of all states, If you can see a 50-50 election for the Presidency in 2020, then you see something that I don't see. I cannot predict that the President's biggest losses of support are in the Midwest or South.

[Tintrlvr]

When did LimoLiberal become logical?

Long-game trolling. Seem reasonable for a while, then go back to trolling later, once you've built up some legitimacy.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Politico/Morning Consult, Jan 4-5, 1988 RV (change from Dec 21-24)

Approve 44 (+3)    Strongly 22
Disapprove 51 (-2)   Strongly 40

[LimoLiberal]

Massachusetts - WBUR/MassINC
http://d279m997dpfwgl.cloudfront.net/wp/2018/01/Topline-2018-01-WBUR-Political-Questions.pdf

Approve: 29
Disapprove: 65

[GeorgiaModerate]

Massachusetts - WBUR/MassINC
http://d279m997dpfwgl.cloudfront.net/wp/2018/01/Topline-2018-01-WBUR-Political-Questions.pdf

Approve: 29
Disapprove: 65

Not too surprising in MA, but wow, those are brutal numbers.

[henster]

California 30/60 and Oprah/Hank matchups.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=04104c60-a299-4ed4-87a4-f9f25ff81e7d&c=37

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, Jan 8 update.

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 55 (+1)

[Gass3268]

Quinnipiac:

Approve: 36% (-1)
Disapprove: 59% (-/+)

Trump's First Year By Grade:
A - 16%
B - 16%
C - 11%
D - 17%
F - 39%

Honest? 34% Yes 63% No
Good Leadership Skills? 39% Yes 59% No
Cares About Average Americans? 38% Yes 59% No
Level Headed? 28% Yes 69% No
Strong Person? 59% Yes 39% No
Intelligent? 53% Yes 44% No
Share Your Values? 32% Yes 65% No

[img=https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2511]http://Source[/img]

[Sorenroy]

I heard something about a state by state Gallup poll that was supposed to be released in early 2018. Anyone know anything about that?

[Doimper]

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How many more months does he need to be dominated by Kelly for this to change?

[LimoLiberal]

A bevy of new polls today, mostly good news for Trump.

Rasmussen: 44-55 (margin +2)
Yougov: 38-49 (margin +3)
Morning consult: 44-51 (margin +5)
Ipsos Reuters: 41-55 (margin -1)
Quinnipiac: 36-59 (margin -1)

[JA]

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How many more months does he need to be dominated by Kelly for this to change?

53% of Americans have no clue what intelligence is.

[LimoLiberal]

Trump Approval - MARYLAND

Approve: 36
Disapprove: 60

Trump has a higher approval rating than percent he got in Nov. 2016. That's encouraging for him, although still a not-good number.

Tax Bill favorability

Favor: 33
Oppose: 55

It's a pretty good sign for the GOP messaging that the bill isn't ridiculously unpopular in a state it should be.

Also, this is what a Gallup poll had today. Nationally. ?

[Badger]

I ed up

Nah, its fine. I was a horrible poster before so it can only be expected that people think that I'm still trolling.

What prompted your change in approach?

Oh... well, that's refreshing to hear. I'll unignore for now and see how it goes.

[pbrower2a]

Three of the toughest states for any Republican nominee for President.

California 30/60 and Oprah/Hank matchups.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=04104c60-a299-4ed4-87a4-f9f25ff81e7d&c=37

Massachusetts - WBUR/MassINC
http://d279m997dpfwgl.cloudfront.net/wp/2018/01/Topline-2018-01-WBUR-Political-Questions.pdf

Approve: 29
Disapprove: 65

Trump Approval - MARYLAND

Approve: 36
Disapprove: 60

Trump has a higher approval rating than percent he got in Nov. 2016. That's encouraging for him, although still a not-good number.

Tax Bill favorability

Favor: 33
Oppose: 55

It's a pretty good sign for the GOP messaging that the bill isn't ridiculously unpopular in a state it should be.

Also, this is what a Gallup poll had today. Nationally. ?

Here is the 2017 map of Cook PVI.  With a 50-50 split of the popular vote, a PVI of D+6 (Connecticut) means that the Democrat can expect to get 56% of the popular vote from Connecticut and that a PVI of R+9 (Indiana) indicates that one can reasonably expect the Republican to win 59% of the popular vote in Indiana. Districts of Maine and Nebraska are shown as their Congressional districts vote for members of Congress. DC? I'm guessing that the Democrat is going to win about 90% of the vote in just about any election, so that is about D+40.  

Color and intensity will indicate the variance from a tie (ties will be in white) with  in a 50-50 election with blue for an R lean and red for a D lean. Numbers will be shown except in individual districts

int      var
2        1-4%
3        5-8%
5        9-12%
7        13-19%
9        20% or more

DC -- way out of reach for any Republican.

ME-01 D+8
ME-02 R+2

NE-01 R+11
NE-02 R+4
NE-03 R+27

(data from Wikipedia, map mine)
 I use 100-DIS as a reasonable ceiling for the Trump vote in 2020. Thus:

Lightest shades are for a raw total of votes that allows for a win with a margin of 5% or less; middle shades are for totals with allow for wins with 6 to 10% margins; deepest shades are for vote percentages that allow wins of 10% or more. Numbers are for the projected vote for Trump.  

100-DIS gives a reasonable ceiling for Trump in 2020 -- at least the most suitable one that I can think of. He may have won Iowa by nearly ten points, but he would be crushed there if an election were to be held there today. The recent poll suggests that the President has disappointed Iowa voters very much.

An assumption of a close race for President depends upon most states being close to their Cook PVI ratings. So how is that going?

Use green for a poll that diverges in favor of Trump's likely opponent, and orange for polls that  that diverge to the favor of Trump. Use light shades for divergence of 4% or less, medium for 5% to 8%, and dark shades for 9% or more.  For example, I show a ceiling of 48% for Trump in Alabama in a state that usually gives the average Republican a 14% edge in a 50-50 election. Trump would be reasonably expected to win Alabama by about 14% in a normal electon, but my estimate (100-DIS)  suggests that Trump would fare worse by about 12% for the average Republican in a 50-50 election nationwide.  
 
  

Eighteen states with recent polls... slightly more than one third of all states, If you can see a 50-50 election for the Presidency in 2020, then you see something that I don't see. I cannot predict that the President's biggest losses of support are in the Midwest or South.

The 2020  election will not be a 50-50 contest or even close. Even the historically 'average' opponent will defeat President Trump decisively.

Of course I would love to see polls of Arizona, Florida*, Georgia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania... and maybe Texas. Trump stands to lose states that Republicans simply do not lose in Presidential elections. Note that 100-DIS is an estimate of the ceiling for the President in a re-election bid...
it is tough to win a state in which one's disapproval rating is above 50%, although Obama did come back from a poll of 43-51 in 2010 in Ohio, only to subsequently win the state. But Obama is one of the slickest campaigners in American history. Trump is not Obama, which is a severe understatement.  

*A Florida poll from October was awful for Trump.

[LimoLiberal]

New Rasmussen poll today

Approve: 45 (+3)
Disapprove: 53 (-3)

538 average has him still climbing up.

[BudgieForce]

New Rasmussen poll today

Approve: 45 (+3)
Disapprove: 53 (-3)

538 average has him still climbing up.

Because without Gallup, Rasmussen's favorable numbers arent getting canceled out. And since the other daily trackers(Ispos and YouGov) are usually in between Rasmussen and Gallup, his numbers are going up.

Edit: His numbers havent actually considerably improved in any tracking poll, its just Rasmussen influencing the average.

[American2020]

He's losing his base of supporters.

The Atlantic

Newsweek

[Landslide Lyndon]

He's losing his base of supporters.

The Atlantic

Newsweek

The links don't work.

[Adam Griffin]

He's losing his base of supporters.

The Atlantic

Newsweek

The links don't work.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/01/the-voters-abandoning-donald-trump/550247/
http://www.newsweek.com/trump-approval-rating-base-president-778628