ME-02: Poliquin in denial

[MAINEiac4434]

Golden's also getting attention from CNN:

https://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2018/08/17/ip-maine-ad.cnn/video/playlists/inside-politics-highlights/

[GoldenMainer]

I was interested to see county by county numbers for Emily Cain in 2016 so I did some number crunching using town results to see where Golden needs to improve. These are rough numbers given the fact that ME02 has a lot of tiny towns and unincorporated territories and townships. I also compared Cain's numbers to Clinton's and both of Obama's elections.

Androscoggin County:

Cain- 48.1%
Clinton- 41.4%
Obama 12- 55%
Obama 08- 57%

Golden Benchmark: 54%

Golden grew up in this county (Leeds) and he represents Lewiston in the state house so his name rec. is high. He also destroyed St. Clair in the primary here. His blue collar/union focus should play well in this mill town/rural county.

Aroostook County:

Cain- 41.4%
Clinton- 38.1%
Obama 12- 52.7%
Obama 08- 53.8%

Golden Benchmark: 45%

Cain and Clinton really plummeted given Obama's numbers here. This wasn't one of Golden's strongest areas in the primary but I expect him to do better than Cain. Some of the larger towns like Fort Kent and Madawaska swing D. Hopefully Golden gets Troy Jackson to campaign with him- that'd be a dream team!

Franklin County:

Cain- 46.8%
Clinton- 42.6%
Obama 12- 57.7%
Obama 08- 58.9%

Golden Benchmark: 50%

Golden has a few things working in his favor here. He briefly went to UMaine Farmington (in this county) before enlisting in the military. He should play that up and juice college turnout. State Rep. Tom Saviello, a Republican, has endorsed Golden and he's well respected here and a part-time professor at UMaine Farmington. Even though this is a rural county, it isn't as conservative as other rural counties in the district. I think Golden can do better than 50% here but at least running even is what he needs.

Hancock County:

Cain- 51.3%
Clinton- 50.2%
Obama 12- 57%
Obama 08- 58.7%

Golden Benchmark: 55%

This county includes Mount Desert Island/Bar Harbor, and the more liberal islands mixed in with some rural mainland. Democrats should be energized here and this is one area Golden needs to really run ahead of Poliquin.

Oxford County:

Cain- 47.7%
Clinton- 39%
Obama 12- 55.9%
Obama 08- 56.7%

Golden Benchmark: 52%

Golden spent a lot of time campaigning in towns like Rumford in the primary and I expect that strategy to continue in the general. It's rural but very working class and I expect his pro-union/blue collar/healthcare focus to play very well here.

Penobscot County:

Cain- 44%
Clinton- 40.8%
Obama 12- 50.3%
Obama 08- 51.7%

Golden Benchmark: 47.5%

The rural areas here are more conservative than rural areas in counties to the west (Oxford, Franklin counties). He needs to cut into those margins while juicing turnout in vote-rich Bangor and the college town of Orono (home of University of Maine).

Piscataquis County:

Cain- 37.6%
Clinton- 33.7%
Obama 12- 46.4%
Obama 08- 47%

Golden Benchmark: 40%

This is the most conservative county (it's the only Maine county to vote for McCain in 2008). However, it doesn't have many people. 40% would be a respectable showing and would likely make for less than a 2,000 vote deficit.

Somerset County:

Cain- 39.4%
Clinton- 34.9%
Obama 12- 49.4%
Obama 08- 51.8%

Golden Benchmark: 44%

This county is rural and blue collar like Oxford & Franklin counties but it's a bit more conservative. Golden should have more appeal here than a traditional Democrat given his military background and union focus.

Waldo County:

Cain- 49.4%
Clinton- 46%
Obama 12- 53.8%
Obama 08- 54.8%

Golden Benchmark: 52%

Along with Hancock, this is one of the more liberal areas in the district. It's coastal and contains the city of Belfast. Rep Erin Herbig from Belfast is running for State Senate and she & Jared were apart of the House Majority leadership. Expect them to campaign together here.

Washington County:

Cain- 40.8%
Clinton- 37.1%
Obama 12- 49.5%
Obama 08- 49.5%

Golden Benchmark: 45%

The redheaded stepchild county of Maine and the district. It's one of the poorest areas of Maine and doesn't have as many people living there. A populist message should work well here.

Kennebec County:

This is the one split county in the district. The lines were drawn carefully to exclude Augusta and Waterville from the second district. I don't have previous presidential numbers from the Kennebec County towns in CD2, but Emily Cain received 43.6% of the vote here. Expect Golden to do a few points better. 46/47% would be a good benchmark.

[Bidenworth2020]

I was interested to see county by county numbers for Emily Cain in 2016 so I did some number crunching using town results to see where Golden needs to improve. These are rough numbers given the fact that ME02 has a lot of tiny towns and unincorporated territories and townships. I also compared Cain's numbers to Clinton's and both of Obama's elections.

Androscoggin County:

Cain- 48.1%
Clinton- 41.4%
Obama 12- 55%
Obama 08- 57%

Golden Benchmark: 54%

Golden grew up in this county (Leeds) and he represents Lewiston in the state house so his name rec. is high. He also destroyed St. Clair in the primary here. His blue collar/union focus should play well in this mill town/rural county.

Aroostook County:

Cain- 41.4%
Clinton- 38.1%
Obama 12- 52.7%
Obama 08- 53.8%

Golden Benchmark: 45%

Cain and Clinton really plummeted given Obama's numbers here. This wasn't one of Golden's strongest areas in the primary but I expect him to do better than Cain. Some of the larger towns like Fort Kent and Madawaska swing D. Hopefully Golden gets Troy Jackson to campaign with him- that'd be a dream team!

Franklin County:

Cain- 46.8%
Clinton- 42.6%
Obama 12- 57.7%
Obama 08- 58.9%

Golden Benchmark: 50%

Golden has a few things working in his favor here. He briefly went to UMaine Farmington (in this county) before enlisting in the military. He should play that up and juice college turnout. State Rep. Tom Saviello, a Republican, has endorsed Golden and he's well respected here and a part-time professor at UMaine Farmington. Even though this is a rural county, it isn't as conservative as other rural counties in the district. I think Golden can do better than 50% here but at least running even is what he needs.

Hancock County:

Cain- 51.3%
Clinton- 50.2%
Obama 12- 57%
Obama 08- 58.7%

Golden Benchmark: 55%

This county includes Mount Desert Island/Bar Harbor, and the more liberal islands mixed in with some rural mainland. Democrats should be energized here and this is one area Golden needs to really run ahead of Poliquin.

Oxford County:

Cain- 47.7%
Clinton- 39%
Obama 12- 55.9%
Obama 08- 56.7%

Golden Benchmark: 52%

Golden spent a lot of time campaigning in towns like Rumford in the primary and I expect that strategy to continue in the general. It's rural but very working class and I expect his pro-union/blue collar/healthcare focus to play very well here.

Penobscot County:

Cain- 44%
Clinton- 40.8%
Obama 12- 50.3%
Obama 08- 51.7%

Golden Benchmark: 47.5%

The rural areas here are more conservative than rural areas in counties to the west (Oxford, Franklin counties). He needs to cut into those margins while juicing turnout in vote-rich Bangor and the college town of Orono (home of University of Maine).

Piscataquis County:

Cain- 37.6%
Clinton- 33.7%
Obama 12- 46.4%
Obama 08- 47%

Golden Benchmark: 40%

This is the most conservative county (it's the only Maine county to vote for McCain in 2008). However, it doesn't have many people. 40% would be a respectable showing and would likely make for less than a 2,000 vote deficit.

Somerset County:

Cain- 39.4%
Clinton- 34.9%
Obama 12- 49.4%
Obama 08- 51.8%

Golden Benchmark: 44%

This county is rural and blue collar like Oxford & Franklin counties but it's a bit more conservative. Golden should have more appeal here than a traditional Democrat given his military background and union focus.

Waldo County:

Cain- 49.4%
Clinton- 46%
Obama 12- 53.8%
Obama 08- 54.8%

Golden Benchmark: 52%

Along with Hancock, this is one of the more liberal areas in the district. It's coastal and contains the city of Belfast. Rep Erin Herbig from Belfast is running for State Senate and she & Jared were apart of the House Majority leadership. Expect them to campaign together here.

Washington County:

Cain- 40.8%
Clinton- 37.1%
Obama 12- 49.5%
Obama 08- 49.5%

Golden Benchmark: 45%

The redheaded stepchild county of Maine and the district. It's one of the poorest areas of Maine and doesn't have as many people living there. A populist message should work well here.

Kennebec County:

This is the one split county in the district. The lines were drawn carefully to exclude Augusta and Waterville from the second district. I don't have previous presidential numbers from the Kennebec County towns in CD2, but Emily Cain received 43.6% of the vote here. Expect Golden to do a few points better. 46/47% would be a good benchmark.

Do you really think this district has moved that much right since the obama years

[Zaybay]

I was interested to see county by county numbers for Emily Cain in 2016 so I did some number crunching using town results to see where Golden needs to improve. These are rough numbers given the fact that ME02 has a lot of tiny towns and unincorporated territories and townships. I also compared Cain's numbers to Clinton's and both of Obama's elections.

Androscoggin County:

Cain- 48.1%
Clinton- 41.4%
Obama 12- 55%
Obama 08- 57%

Golden Benchmark: 54%

Golden grew up in this county (Leeds) and he represents Lewiston in the state house so his name rec. is high. He also destroyed St. Clair in the primary here. His blue collar/union focus should play well in this mill town/rural county.

Aroostook County:

Cain- 41.4%
Clinton- 38.1%
Obama 12- 52.7%
Obama 08- 53.8%

Golden Benchmark: 45%

Cain and Clinton really plummeted given Obama's numbers here. This wasn't one of Golden's strongest areas in the primary but I expect him to do better than Cain. Some of the larger towns like Fort Kent and Madawaska swing D. Hopefully Golden gets Troy Jackson to campaign with him- that'd be a dream team!

Franklin County:

Cain- 46.8%
Clinton- 42.6%
Obama 12- 57.7%
Obama 08- 58.9%

Golden Benchmark: 50%

Golden has a few things working in his favor here. He briefly went to UMaine Farmington (in this county) before enlisting in the military. He should play that up and juice college turnout. State Rep. Tom Saviello, a Republican, has endorsed Golden and he's well respected here and a part-time professor at UMaine Farmington. Even though this is a rural county, it isn't as conservative as other rural counties in the district. I think Golden can do better than 50% here but at least running even is what he needs.

Hancock County:

Cain- 51.3%
Clinton- 50.2%
Obama 12- 57%
Obama 08- 58.7%

Golden Benchmark: 55%

This county includes Mount Desert Island/Bar Harbor, and the more liberal islands mixed in with some rural mainland. Democrats should be energized here and this is one area Golden needs to really run ahead of Poliquin.

Oxford County:

Cain- 47.7%
Clinton- 39%
Obama 12- 55.9%
Obama 08- 56.7%

Golden Benchmark: 52%

Golden spent a lot of time campaigning in towns like Rumford in the primary and I expect that strategy to continue in the general. It's rural but very working class and I expect his pro-union/blue collar/healthcare focus to play very well here.

Penobscot County:

Cain- 44%
Clinton- 40.8%
Obama 12- 50.3%
Obama 08- 51.7%

Golden Benchmark: 47.5%

The rural areas here are more conservative than rural areas in counties to the west (Oxford, Franklin counties). He needs to cut into those margins while juicing turnout in vote-rich Bangor and the college town of Orono (home of University of Maine).

Piscataquis County:

Cain- 37.6%
Clinton- 33.7%
Obama 12- 46.4%
Obama 08- 47%

Golden Benchmark: 40%

This is the most conservative county (it's the only Maine county to vote for McCain in 2008). However, it doesn't have many people. 40% would be a respectable showing and would likely make for less than a 2,000 vote deficit.

Somerset County:

Cain- 39.4%
Clinton- 34.9%
Obama 12- 49.4%
Obama 08- 51.8%

Golden Benchmark: 44%

This county is rural and blue collar like Oxford & Franklin counties but it's a bit more conservative. Golden should have more appeal here than a traditional Democrat given his military background and union focus.

Waldo County:

Cain- 49.4%
Clinton- 46%
Obama 12- 53.8%
Obama 08- 54.8%

Golden Benchmark: 52%

Along with Hancock, this is one of the more liberal areas in the district. It's coastal and contains the city of Belfast. Rep Erin Herbig from Belfast is running for State Senate and she & Jared were apart of the House Majority leadership. Expect them to campaign together here.

Washington County:

Cain- 40.8%
Clinton- 37.1%
Obama 12- 49.5%
Obama 08- 49.5%

Golden Benchmark: 45%

The redheaded stepchild county of Maine and the district. It's one of the poorest areas of Maine and doesn't have as many people living there. A populist message should work well here.

Kennebec County:

This is the one split county in the district. The lines were drawn carefully to exclude Augusta and Waterville from the second district. I don't have previous presidential numbers from the Kennebec County towns in CD2, but Emily Cain received 43.6% of the vote here. Expect Golden to do a few points better. 46/47% would be a good benchmark.

Do you really think this district has moved that much right since the obama years

I, personally, dont think so. It just seems to be a part of the overall trend we saw in 2016, rural, WWC voters abandoning the D party. Upstate NY, the Rust Belt, rural CT, rural ME, rural NH, all of these places had similar drops. Its quite likely, however, that this was a fluke, as polling indicates a huge drop of approval for Trump, but the Dems will need to win these voters back.

[GoldenMainer]

Do you really think this district has moved that much right since the obama years

I think we can gain some of it back but I don't think we'll be getting Obama numbers there in the near future. Cain & Clinton weren't good fits for this district so seeing Golden's numbers will give us a better idea of where this area stands. Unfortunately, I think Maine Dems have gotten into the habit of relying on Portland/coastal areas too much and have let the rural inland areas get away from them. And their habit of being disconnected from district 2 really shows. Golden hasn't signed on to all of the national gun control measures floating around, but if he does, he completely blows his chance of winning this seat for Dems. District 2 is huge on hunting and guns yet Golden's gotten flack for being in line with his district on this. Too often we have Maine Dems, often from the first district, treating the second district like it's uber-liberal Portland. And it's not going to work. I'm hopeful we can turn it around though.  

[Bidenworth2020]

Do you really think this district has moved that much right since the obama years

I think we can gain some of it back but I don't think we'll be getting Obama numbers there in the near future. Cain & Clinton weren't good fits for this district so seeing Golden's numbers will give us a better idea of where this area stands. Unfortunately, I think Maine Dems have gotten into the habit of relying on Portland/coastal areas too much and have let the rural inland areas get away from them. And their habit of being disconnected from district 2 really shows. Golden hasn't signed on to all of the national gun control measures floating around, but if he does, he completely blows his chance of winning this seat for Dems. District 2 is huge on hunting and guns yet Golden's gotten flack for being in line with his district on this. Too often we have Maine Dems, often from the first district, treating the second district like it's uber-liberal Portland. And it's not going to work. I'm hopeful we can turn it around though.  

I love golden, maybe my favorite dem this year, but if he loses, hopefully, Michaud or Baldacci snatch it back in 2020 and give coattails upballot.

[GoldenMainer]

I love golden, maybe my favorite dem this year, but if he loses, hopefully, Michaud or Baldacci snatch it back in 2020 and give coattails upballot.

Have you heard of Troy Jackson? He was a Bernie superdelegate, represents part of Aroostook County in the Maine Senate and is the Senate Minority Leader. He's a logger and very pro-worker pro-union. He was who I was hoping would run before Golden got in, but I love Golden too.

[Zaybay]

I love golden, maybe my favorite dem this year, but if he loses, hopefully, Michaud or Baldacci snatch it back in 2020 and give coattails upballot.

Have you heard of Troy Jackson? He was a Bernie superdelegate, represents part of Aroostook County in the Maine Senate and is the Senate Minority Leader. He's a logger and very pro-worker pro-union. He was who I was hoping would run before Golden got in, but I love Golden too.

We got to save Troy for senate 2020! Golden is great as well, a progressive,pro-union, just a pure FF.

[GoldenMainer]

I love golden, maybe my favorite dem this year, but if he loses, hopefully, Michaud or Baldacci snatch it back in 2020 and give coattails upballot.

Have you heard of Troy Jackson? He was a Bernie superdelegate, represents part of Aroostook County in the Maine Senate and is the Senate Minority Leader. He's a logger and very pro-worker pro-union. He was who I was hoping would run before Golden got in, but I love Golden too.

We got to save Troy for senate 2020! Golden is great as well, a progressive,pro-union, just a pure FF.

Yeeeeesssss! We haven't had a progressive Dem. senator in so long. My body is ready.

[MAINEiac4434]

Do you really think this district has moved that much right since the obama years

I think we can gain some of it back but I don't think we'll be getting Obama numbers there in the near future. Cain & Clinton weren't good fits for this district so seeing Golden's numbers will give us a better idea of where this area stands. Unfortunately, I think Maine Dems have gotten into the habit of relying on Portland/coastal areas too much and have let the rural inland areas get away from them. And their habit of being disconnected from district 2 really shows. Golden hasn't signed on to all of the national gun control measures floating around, but if he does, he completely blows his chance of winning this seat for Dems. District 2 is huge on hunting and guns yet Golden's gotten flack for being in line with his district on this. Too often we have Maine Dems, often from the first district, treating the second district like it's uber-liberal Portland. And it's not going to work. I'm hopeful we can turn it around though.  

I love golden, maybe my favorite dem this year, but if he loses, hopefully, Michaud or Baldacci snatch it back in 2020 and give coattails upballot.

Maine politics have passed Michaud and Baldacci behind. There just isn’t room for a bland, uninspiring centrist Dem anymore. It doesn’t get voters out. Baldacci lives in Portland now too.

[MAINEiac4434]

Lmao they're scared shitless

Trump-supporting super PAC plans to drop $1 million to help Rep. Poliquin

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[KingSweden]

These are not people who have shown that they can spend money effectively

[Zaybay]

I was in ME to visit the past two days(the reason for my absence) and I actually got to see a Golden ad, and a Polquin ad, with both Democratic and Republican voters.

The Golden ad- Overall, my family saw it as a pretty good ad. Even my Republican relatives were drawn in by his work for Collins and his military work. My Democratic family loved the ad, and saw him as a great man.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o6n_9Hb07tI

The Poliquin ad- a more mixed opinion. The ad, instead of being about the candidate like Golden's, was about the opponent, Golden. The ad was very off-putting, except for the most R of my family. The D side was incredibly mad at the ad, and one member asked me if Golden was a Blue Dog, based on its contents. To me, it seemed like a mindless ad that has been playing in literally every single race.

The frowning woman did get a laugh though.

(Unfortunately, due to the fact that the ad is brand new, I cant find it on youtube. Will uipdate when its posted)

[MAINEiac4434]

Holy fucking shit Bruce Poliquin is an absolute fucking idiot.

He's attacking Golden for his tattoos.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Holy fucking sh**t Bruce Poliquin is an absolute fucking idiot.

He's attacking Golden for his tattoos.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The GOP continues being an excellent party for the white working class.

[MAINEiac4434]

Also on my way to the parlor to get that tattooed on my back right now

[MAINEiac4434]

Chamber of Commerce on the air for Poliquin, highlighting his opposition to tariffs. Not sure how it might play in the second district, where lots of jobs have been lost to offshoring.

https://twitter.com/stevecollinssj/status/1034486449461256194?s=21

[GoldenMainer]

I'm DYING at the tattoo ad. They're so scared of Golden and have nothing substantive to hit him on.

[MAINEiac4434]

I'm DYING at the tattoo ad. They're so scared of Golden and have nothing substantive to hit him on.

It’s such a blunder. It’s honestly offensive.

I can already imagine the rebuttal ad.

[somber music plays, picture of Golden and other Marines in Afghanistan].

[Golden reads names of fallen comrades in voice over]

[Cut to golden, standing in the woods]
That’s why I got this tattoo [points to tattoo], to commemorate my friends who died in Afghanistan.

But while they were dying, Bruce Poliquin was making his millions on Wall Street.

He and his Wall Street buddies can make fun of me all they want. But I will not stand for them insulting those who died defending our freedom.

As your congressman, I’ll always make sure to think of those who put everything on the line to protect America before every vote I cast. It’s the least I can do for those who made the ultimate sacrifice.

I’m Jared Golden, and I’ll always approve this message.

[VPH]

Chamber of Commerce on the air for Poliquin, highlighting his opposition to tariffs. Not sure how it might play in the second district, where lots of jobs have been lost to offshoring.

https://twitter.com/stevecollinssj/status/1034486449461256194?s=21

I'm just thinking of the old mill towns that most certainly don't pine for free trade. I don't know what the heck the Chamber is thinking.

[MAINEiac4434]

Jared Golden's new ad literally has him feeding people while wearing a shirt saying "MARINES".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HFIgJOcWyto

He is running a near-perfect campaign, hitting all the right notes. But it's still August, people really don't start paying attention until after Labor Day. His ads are everywhere and at this point I'm afraid of oversaturation.

[SATW]

Jared Golden's new ad literally has him feeding people while wearing a shirt saying "MARINES".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HFIgJOcWyto

He is running a near-perfect campaign, hitting all the right notes. But it's still August, people really don't start paying attention until after Labor Day. His ads are everywhere and at this point I'm afraid of oversaturation.

pretty solid ad

[MAINEiac4434]

Jared Golden's new ad literally has him feeding people while wearing a shirt saying "MARINES".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HFIgJOcWyto

He is running a near-perfect campaign, hitting all the right notes. But it's still August, people really don't start paying attention until after Labor Day. His ads are everywhere and at this point I'm afraid of oversaturation.

pretty solid ad

All of Golden's have been spectacular, and all of Poliquin's (including those by Poliquin-aligned special interests) have been pretty sub-par, as mentioned in this thread.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Jared Golden's new ad literally has him feeding people while wearing a shirt saying "MARINES".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HFIgJOcWyto

He is running a near-perfect campaign, hitting all the right notes. But it's still August, people really don't start paying attention until after Labor Day. His ads are everywhere and at this point I'm afraid of oversaturation.

pretty solid ad

All of Golden's have been spectacular, and all of Poliquin's (including those by Poliquin-aligned special interests) have been pretty sub-par, as mentioned in this thread.

Freedom ad indeed.

[IceSpear]

Ugh, I really hope Poliquin goes down in flames. Mocking Flawless Beautiful Jared's badass tattoos is one of the most morally reprehensible things I've seen a Republican candidate do so far.