ME-02: Poliquin in denial

[Technocracy Timmy]

Back to Lean R with the Siena poll. That was brutal.

I always trust polls where the republicans lead by 20 points among nonwhite voters and with only 11 people beneath the age of 30 polled

In fairness the district is 95% white and the median aged person is 45 per census data.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Back to Lean R with the Siena poll. That was brutal.

I always trust polls where the republicans lead by 20 points among nonwhite voters and with only 11 people beneath the age of 30 polled

In fairness the district is 95% white and the median aged person is 45 per census data.

...and reality strikes again. Face it, Red/Maroon avatars, the National Dems have pissed away places like ME-02 with their elitist nonsense.

[Xing]

Still a Toss-Up. We should wait until the poll is at least finished, and even then, it's one data point.

[IceSpear]

I presume Golden must have been trailing by more than the 4 points he's currently trailing by when the "discussion" above took place? Or does hofoid really think that an incumbent being up 4 points in September when their party controls the White House makes them safe?

[ON Progressive]

I presume Golden must have been trailing by more than the 4 points he's currently trailing by when the "discussion" above took place? Or does hofoid really think that an incumbent being up 4 points in September when their party controls the White House makes them safe?

He was literally only down 5 LMAO.

[Xing]

I presume Golden must have been trailing by more than the 4 points he's currently trailing by when the "discussion" above took place? Or does hofoid really think that an incumbent being up 4 points in September when their party controls the White House makes them safe?

Well, he'd probably say that if it's a Republican incumbent (especially in Wisconsin), then being down by only 4 means that they're safe. You know, elitist smug Democrats pissing on the rurals and all that.

[MAINEiac4434]

Native Americans and refugees will be a (slightly) larger bloc than 4% of the vote, and they will not go to Poliquin by double digits.

Young people (especially around Bates College, in Golden's State House district) will also come out. They came out for a random-ass mayoral election in Lewiston last year.

[MAINEiac4434]

Native Americans and refugees will be a (slightly) larger bloc than 4% of the vote, and they will not go to Poliquin by double digits.

Young people (especially around Bates College, in Golden's State House district) will also come out. They came out for a random-ass mayoral election in Lewiston last year.

LMAO just noticed Golden is winning independents. He's going to cruise.

[ON Progressive]

Part of me doubts that there are 12% more Republicans than Democrats in ME-02, but that might just be me.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Native Americans and refugees will be a (slightly) larger bloc than 4% of the vote, and they will not go to Poliquin by double digits.

Young people (especially around Bates College, in Golden's State House district) will also come out. They came out for a random-ass mayoral election in Lewiston last year.

Native Americans turn out for midterms?

Also didn’t ME-2 barely vote for Medicaid expansion by 6% despite being poor/rural af in the 2017 November elections when Dems crushed across the country?

[Strong Candidate]

Part of me doubts that there are 12% more Republicans than Democrats in ME-02, but that might just be me.

The party registration in the poll is R+2, which is a bit more Republican than the district as a whole (which is about tied); the R+11 figure is party ID, which is so fluid and erratic i'd either ignore it entirely or only take it with a massive grain of salt. The sample seems to be a tad too Republican, but not overwhelmingly so.

[BBD]

Native Americans and refugees will be a (slightly) larger bloc than 4% of the vote, and they will not go to Poliquin by double digits.

Young people (especially around Bates College, in Golden's State House district) will also come out. They came out for a random-ass mayoral election in Lewiston last year.

Native Americans turn out for midterms?

Also didn’t ME-2 barely vote for Medicaid expansion by 6% despite being poor/rural af in the 2017 November elections when Dems crushed across the country?

I don't think Janet Mills has made friends with some of the tribes up there. I don't see how Natives+refugess could amount to more than 4% of the vote. Heck, 4% might be a stretch. What is there to excite them, unless Jared Golden is actively trying to make inroads with them?

As for Medicaid expansion, 6% isn't too shabby...turnout wasn't too great, I assume. Obama walloped Romney by 8% in ME-02 back in 2012.

[Xing]

Native Americans and refugees will be a (slightly) larger bloc than 4% of the vote, and they will not go to Poliquin by double digits.

Young people (especially around Bates College, in Golden's State House district) will also come out. They came out for a random-ass mayoral election in Lewiston last year.

LMAO just noticed Golden is winning independents. He's going to cruise.

I'm curious why you're so confident that Golden is going to win. I definitely think he's a good candidate, and he'll give Poliquin his toughest challenge yet, but even if the Siena poll is problematic, the only other poll we have shows a very tight race.

[MAINEiac4434]

Native Americans and refugees will be a (slightly) larger bloc than 4% of the vote, and they will not go to Poliquin by double digits.

Young people (especially around Bates College, in Golden's State House district) will also come out. They came out for a random-ass mayoral election in Lewiston last year.

LMAO just noticed Golden is winning independents. He's going to cruise.

I'm curious why you're so confident that Golden is going to win. I definitely think he's a good candidate, and he'll give Poliquin his toughest challenge yet, but even if the Siena poll is problematic, the only other poll we have shows a very tight race.

Bruce Poliquin is extremely shitty at politics, and Jared Golden is extremely good at politics.

Poliquin hid in a women’s restroom to avoid constituents and the press. He is woefully out of touch on bread-and-butter issues. He has no legislative accomplishments, and therefore nothing to run on.

Independents in Maine almost always break for the winner. If Poliquin is actually losing independents, and isn’t getting crossover support from Democrats (and why would he?), he is in massive trouble.

[GoldenMainer]

This is a pure toss-up right now. I don't think Golden has this in the bag but I also don't read much into the New York Times poll. Golden has a far better profile than Poliquin and his clothing/optics is on point (seriously, he wears jeans and boots everywhere, not a stuffy suit and tie and he's always talking about unions and the military). He's more pro-gun than some Democrats want but that's smart as hell in this district.

He's not an avid tweeter/Facebook poster like some candidates- to some people's disappointment. The things he does post on social media are fairly generic (military, healthcare, unions) and he doesn't post anything bold or get into policy much. I'm not sure if I like that or not but it's definitely prevented the GOP from getting any "gotcha" material.

I haven't gotten a good sense of his ground game either. I just hope he has a team registering college students and getting them excited.

Outside groups really need to be spending more here attacking Poliquin. There's like 4 or 5 ads up attacking Golden. They're scared as heck of him and are trying to define him early.

[Fmr. Speaker anna0kear]

This is a pure toss-up right now.

Seconded.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is a pure toss-up right now.

Seconded.

Yup.

[MAINEiac4434]

Golden going negative:

https://twitter.com/golden4congress/status/1042138883792793600?s=21

[MAINEiac4434]

Also: lol

https://twitter.com/coleleiter/status/1042146566906277888?s=21

[MAINEiac4434]

Maine AFL-CIO coming through for Jared:


https://twitter.com/MEAFLCIO/status/1042478192756490245

[MAINEiac4434]

So is National Nurses United:

https://twitter.com/nationalnurses/status/1042896897701117952?s=21

[MAINEiac4434]

More Jaredposting:

https://twitter.com/golden4congress/status/1042933408312250368?s=21

This is relevant because Golden needs to do well in Hancock if he wants to win.

[MAINEiac4434]

ME-02 caught the eye of Bloomberg (the news outlet, not the guy):

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-25/maine-house-race-tests-democrats-rural-appeal-trump-tariffs

[MAINEiac4434]

lol

https://twitter.com/ASFried/status/1045115036207927296

[GoldenMainer]

Great ad from Jared!

https://twitter.com/golden4congress/status/1047126611001323520