AL-SEN 2017 predictions?

[Karpatsky]

I don't get why the majority is already predicting a Jones win. This is Alabama, and all undecided voters are Republicans. I wouldn't even put him close until he gets above 50% in multiple polls.

[ursulahx]

Yes, in spite of everything I still think this race is Moore’s to lose. Luckily he seems to be doing his best to lose it.

[OriginalJeremiah]

AL-SEN

48.1% Doug Jones
47.0% Roy Moore
4.9% Other/Write-in


At this time is looks like a possible Sen-elect Jones. Alot can change, Moore drops out, A strong write-in candidate, after awhile things can cool down and support for Moore can rise again. Who know but for now I have a close Doug Jones victory.

[Tartarus Sauce]

I don't think Moore is savvy enough to salvage this. It just keeps getting worse.

[Del Tachi]

U.S. Senate special election in Alabama, 2017 (^)

(✓) Former U.S. Attorney Doug Jones (D-Birmingham) - 49,3%
Former Justice Roy Moore (R-Gadsden) - 42,4%
Other/Write-Ins - 8.3%

[Maxwell]

Update:

Moore by 0.5%.

[tallguy23]

Jones by 1-2 points due to decreased GOP turnout.

[Kamala]

This is my preliminary GE prediction:

52% Jones (D)
44% Moore (R)
4% Write-in

Indy's always had relatively good predictions. I hope he's right this time as well!

[Cactus Jack]

This is my preliminary GE prediction:

52% Jones (D)
44% Moore (R)
4% Write-in

Indy's always had relatively good predictions. I hope he's right this time as well!

Say what you will about his politics and his New Hampshire obsession, I'm inclined to agree. Treasurer is actually pretty politically-savvy, and I hope he's right on the money here.

[Young Conservative]

This is my preliminary GE prediction:

52% Jones (D)
44% Moore (R)
4% Write-in

Indy's always had relatively good predictions. I hope he's right this time as well!

Say what you will about his politics and his New Hampshire obsession, I'm inclined to agree. Treasurer is actually pretty politically-savvy, and I hope he's right on the money here.

In this climate, he probably is right on the money. But we are still month out...a lot could change. (hopefully Moore will drop out)

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Jones: 47%
Moore: 43%
Write-Ins: 10%

[ElectionsGuy]

Moore: 51%
Jones: 45%

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Jones 49.5
Moore 45.5
Write-In/Other 5

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Jones 49.5
Moore 45.5
Write-In/Other 5

Jones 48.5
Moore 47.5
Write-In/Other 4

[Devout Centrist]

49.0%--Jones
47.7%--Moore

[Esteemed Jimmy]

49.0%--Jones
47.7%--Moore

[mcmikk]

I have it as Pure Tossup. There are just too many variables and I can't really make a good judgement on the race at this point. For now, I'm just going to be optimistic and predict that Jones narrowly ekes it out.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Final prediction.

Moore:53

Doug:45

[Not Me, Us]

Roy Moore: 49%
Doug Jones: 47%
Other/Write-In: 4%

[Beet]

Roy Moore 51%
Doug Jones 46%
Write-in 3%

[IceSpear]

Although the race is safe R, predicting the margin is tricky. I'll guess 53-45. Could be a bit more or a bit less, but I'd be very surprised if he doesn't do better than he did in 2012.

[The Other Castro]

I guess I'll stick with this:

Jones: 296,646: 49.69%
Moore: 281,570: 47.17%
Write-ins: 18,723: 3.14%

I will increase the turnout a little, but keep the percentages the same:

Jones: 316,119: 49.69%
Moore: 300,088: 47.17%
Write-ins: 19,976: 3.14%

[MT Treasurer]

This is my preliminary GE prediction:

52% Jones (D)
44% Moore (R)
4% Write-in

Changing this to 50-47-3 Jones. Still Lean D.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Jones wins 49-46.

[Mr. Smith]

Jones Moore wins 49-46.