AL-SEN 2017 predictions?

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

My faith in the world will not be shaken until they actually declare Roy Moore the winner.

[Maxwell]

My (at this point optimistic) prediction:

51% Moore
46% Jones
3% Scattered Others

because we live in hellworld

[Keep cool-idge]

Okay my final prediction is

50.3% Roy Moore
45.9% Doug Jones
Rest is others.

[Pericles]

2017 Alabama Senate special election
Doug Jones(D)-47.62%
Roy Moore(R)-47.17%
Lee Busby(R-write in)-3.43%
Others-1.78%
Doug Jones(D) elected Senator

[King Lear]

2017 Alabama special election
Roy Moore(R) 54%
Doug jones(D) 44%
Other 2%

[Anti-Bothsidesism]

My faith in the world will not be shaken until they actually declare Roy Moore the winner.

[Tender Branson]

My FINAL prediction:

49.7% Jones (D)
48.3% Moore (R)
  2.0% Write-Ins

[GeorgiaModerate]

I truly don't know; I'm more uncertain about this race than any other in a long time.  But I voted for Jones in the hope that my faith in human decency will win out over my cynicism that tribalism will triumph.

[The Other Castro]

I'd rather be one of the few that gets an upset correct than just another correct guesser among the many.

[hunter gatherer]

Doug jones 46.7%
Roy more 44.3%
                 write in's 10%

[Hoosier_Nick]

Roy Moore: 49.8%
Doug Jones 47.6%
Others: 2.6%

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

This Race is now Lean D because of Roy Moores slavery gaffe.

And because of this, Democrats are now favorites to control the Senate after 2018.

[Hydera]

52.1% Moore (R)

47.2% Jones (D)

0.7% Write-Ins

[Doimper]

This Race is now Lean D because of Roy Moores slavery gaffe.

And because of this, Democrats are now favorites to control the Senate after 2018.

Is that gaffe really getting that much coverage? I thought it was drowned out by the signature nothingburger.

[mcmikk]

This Race is now Lean D because of Roy Moores slavery gaffe.

And because of this, Democrats are now favorites to control the Senate after 2018.

Is that gaffe really getting that much coverage? I thought it was drowned out by the signature nothingburger.

If being a literal pedophile didn't hurt Moore that much, why would one think that praising the times of slavery would hurt him at all?

[Alabama_Indy10]

This Race is now Lean D because of Roy Moores slavery gaffe.

And because of this, Democrats are now favorites to control the Senate after 2018.

Is that gaffe really getting that much coverage? I thought it was drowned out by the signature nothingburger.

Nope. I don’t think it’s even been mentioned on the local news.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This Race is now Lean D because of Roy Moores slavery gaffe.

And because of this, Democrats are now favorites to control the Senate after 2018.

Is that gaffe really getting that much coverage? I thought it was drowned out by the signature nothingburger.

It's been on the home page of al.com for the last day.

[Xing]

Moore - 53%
Jones - 45%

I'm mostly sticking with this, but I'll modify the margin to Moore 52-44. Safe R. Pretty much nothing can trump partisan loyalty these days. Moore could probably do even more unspeakable things that I don't feel comfortable mentioning on this forum and still win.

[OneJ]

52% Moore
45% Jones

Hopefully I'm wrong.

[BlueDogDemocrat]

Moore - 50%
Jones - 47%

I find it very hard to imagine a scenario were Jones wins, even if it is turns out to be really close.

[Brittain33]

Moore - 50%
Jones - 47%

I find it very hard to imagine a scenario were Jones wins, even if it is turns out to be really close.

This is what I'll go with, too. The SurveyMonkey poll gives me real pause, as does Gravis's raw data, but I've made fun of Gravis so much in the past that I can't fairly believe them now.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

I really have no idea what's going on here b/c the polls are whack and specials are inherently unpredictable but especially so when one of the candidates is a kid diddler, so gonna throw a dart at the wall

Jones - 47.1%
Moore - 46.9%
Write-ins - 6.0%

Cue completely accusations of massive voter fraud in areas that just so happen to have large amounts of Those People

But regardless I don't think there's anything more Dems could have done. If Jones falls short its because Alabama was just too red. But even coming close in a state Trump won by 28% would still be very good, not that Republicans will acknowledge that (they'll prob gloat and act like everything is great, which I have no problem with since they'll be easier to beat in 2018 if they think nothing is wrong )

[thumb21]

Moore by 7/8 points

[The Govanah Jake]

Sticking to something around this. Though i wouldn't be surprised if Moore won by more then i showed

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Predicit  has it at 78 Moore, 25 Jones at the moment. That Jones has a 1 in 4 chance of a win seems about right.