MD-Gov: Don't be Jealous!

[Zaybay]

I mean, currently, this race is lean R. Jealous was doing as well as Baker was, but Hogan is just below the magic threashold of 50%. Could this race shift in favor of Jealous during the summer and fall? Yes. Could this race become safe R under the same time period? Also Yes.

[Zaybay]

I was originally supporting Baker, as I thought his support from PG county could make a difference. But now, looking at the primary results, its clear to me that Jealous is the better candidate to take Hogan on. It provides a stark contrast with a progressive in one corner and moderate R in the other. Some people keep saying this is R because of approvals, but what you see if you look at elections is that approvals go down as more voters look closer at the candidate or incumbent. I doubt many in NY-14 were angry at Crowley until they started looking closer at him and seeing his opponent. The "invincible moderate northeast governors" are not invincible, it just appears that way due to approvals. None of them f*ucked up the state, so they get approved of. Ask me about these races in September.

[Zaybay]

Hogan is out with his first attack ad, and it looks like an effective one.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8r1y1u10tWY&feature=youtu.be

As I've said, unless Ben Jealous has some plan to pay for it, state single-payer is a no-go. A single payer system in MD would cost a bit over half the state's budget. Despite Maryland's left-leaning ideology, people here do care about the debt. It's why most people think the state is going in the right direction.

I will note however, that the ad doesn't mention that a single-payer system would remove healthcare costs.

surprised Hogan went on the offensive already. Not the best strategy, but I guess hes trying to define him early.

[Zaybay]

Hogan is out with his first attack ad, and it looks like an effective one.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8r1y1u10tWY&feature=youtu.be

As I've said, unless Ben Jealous has some plan to pay for it, state single-payer is a no-go. A single payer system in MD would cost a bit over half the state's budget. Despite Maryland's left-leaning ideology, people here do care about the debt. It's why most people think the state is going in the right direction.

I will note however, that the ad doesn't mention that a single-payer system would remove healthcare costs.

surprised Hogan went on the offensive already. Not the best strategy, but I guess hes trying to define him early.

Because he's actually in trouble.

He’s in much less trouble than he could be. Listen guys, don’t fall into the trap of thinking just because MD is a blue state, that Jealous should be favored. There are a lot of people here who are liberals or progressive who can’t stand the thought of an increase in the sales or income tax. There are plenty who still remember the hysteria over the rain tax. Jealous is going to have to run one hell of a campaign to get the people he needs out to vote. I think Rushern Baker would have been a better choice, honestly. Jealous’s plans are really better implemented at the Federal level.

I think it’s too early to make a prediction right now.

Ummm, most of us think Hogan is fine, I have the race as Lean R. What I was surprised is how he immediately went negative. When you are a candidate who is moderate in bad territory, you try to shore yourself up, and make you look like the better choice to the public.

 The point of negative ads is to keep the enemy base at home and inspire your base. They create an USvsTHEM attitude. This would work in a swing state, or a state that leans one direction or another by less than 5 on the PVI scale. MD is not the state to do this. What this does is anger Democrats who might have supported him, and solidify his hold over Rs, which are not enough to win in this case.

 If he keeps going negative, especially on healthcare, he might slip up, and lose. Baker and Scott are playing smart, talking about achievements and positive messages, Hogan is not.

[Zaybay]

Hogan is out with his first attack ad, and it looks like an effective one.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8r1y1u10tWY&feature=youtu.be

As I've said, unless Ben Jealous has some plan to pay for it, state single-payer is a no-go. A single payer system in MD would cost a bit over half the state's budget. Despite Maryland's left-leaning ideology, people here do care about the debt. It's why most people think the state is going in the right direction.

I will note however, that the ad doesn't mention that a single-payer system would remove healthcare costs.

surprised Hogan went on the offensive already. Not the best strategy, but I guess hes trying to define him early.

Because he's actually in trouble.

He’s in much less trouble than he could be. Listen guys, don’t fall into the trap of thinking just because MD is a blue state, that Jealous should be favored. There are a lot of people here who are liberals or progressive who can’t stand the thought of an increase in the sales or income tax. There are plenty who still remember the hysteria over the rain tax. Jealous is going to have to run one hell of a campaign to get the people he needs out to vote. I think Rushern Baker would have been a better choice, honestly. Jealous’s plans are really better implemented at the Federal level.

I think it’s too early to make a prediction right now.

Ummm, most of us think Hogan is fine, I have the race as Lean R. What I was surprised is how he immediately went negative. When you are a candidate who is moderate in bad territory, you try to shore yourself up, and make you look like the better choice to the public. The point of negative ads is to keep the enemy base at home and inspire your base. Hogan's base is not enough to win. If he keeps going negative, especially on healthcare, he might slip up, and lose. Baker and Scott are playing smart, talking about achievements and positive messages, Hogan is not.

Oh I definitely agree with that. Honestly, when I saw the title, I though it would be Jealous attacking Hogan. However, I saw many people on this forum saying that Hogan would be Erliched.

TBH, I thought the same thing. Thats the problem.

Hogan is the weakest of the 4 moderate Rs(Baker, Sununu, Scott). He has to content with a high AA and minority population, which gives Dems a higher floor, unlike in MA, VT, and NH, where White Democrats are fine with flipping for the right guy. He has to walk a tightrope, and be moderate enough to win over Ds and Is, while also being conservative enough to win Rs.

 Going full attack ad already, and on an energizing issue for Dems, is a risky move at best. 1. This increases his name recognition, and in a way that says he want single payer 2. As I said before, Single Payer really gets out the Dem Base. I dunno the idea for this. This feels more like desperation , rather than from a position of strength. Perhaps this race is rather close, or has Jealous leading? I dunno. All in all, not the best move.

[Zaybay]

Which part of the state is going to be Hogan's biggest headache? I know Jealous did much better in the Baltimore area than the D.C. suburbs, but I feel like Hogan's numbers are more likely to collapse in the latter than the former.

Baltimore unless Jealous turns out to be a stronger than expected candidate. Jealous naturally has a high floor in Baltimore and he's a good fit for the area. Jealous is a worse fit for the DC suburbs, but if he does a really good job of tying Hogan to Trump and the national GOP, he can snap them back into the Dem column. It may be tough, but that alone would win it for him.

I actually think it's the other way around. I think Hogan will do best in the Baltimore suburbs. The DC suburbs are less elastic, and Hogan's from Anne Arundel County. (which is technically in the Baltimore metro)

TBH, Hogan has a lot of things going against him in both areas.
Jealous fits more with the Baltimore suburbs, and the area has a lot of AAs, which should keep his floor high. The DC suburbs, on the other hand, are very inelastic and also have a pretty good chunk of AA voters.
I think Hogan has the better chance in DC, but thats just by a hair.

[Zaybay]

Which part of the state is going to be Hogan's biggest headache? I know Jealous did much better in the Baltimore area than the D.C. suburbs, but I feel like Hogan's numbers are more likely to collapse in the latter than the former.

Baltimore unless Jealous turns out to be a stronger than expected candidate. Jealous naturally has a high floor in Baltimore and he's a good fit for the area. Jealous is a worse fit for the DC suburbs, but if he does a really good job of tying Hogan to Trump and the national GOP, he can snap them back into the Dem column. It may be tough, but that alone would win it for him.

I actually think it's the other way around. I think Hogan will do best in the Baltimore suburbs. The DC suburbs are less elastic, and Hogan's from Anne Arundel County. (which is technically in the Baltimore metro)

TBH, Hogan has a lot of things going against him in both areas.
Jealous fits more with the Baltimore suburbs, and the area has a lot of AAs, which should keep his floor high. The DC suburbs, on the other hand, are very inelastic and also have a pretty good chunk of AA voters.
I think Hogan has the better chance in DC, but thats just by a hair.

In 2014, Hogan carried Baltimore County 59-39. While I don't think he'll do that well this time around, he is still quite popular there. Jealous only really has connections to Baltimore City, which is distinct from the county.

Hogan also carried Anne Arundel County by a whopping 66-32. Again, I don't think Hogan's gonna do as well there, but I think he wins it by a large margin.

I also expect Hogan to improve in the DC suburbs. He's gained more support among nonwhites through heavy courting. While Jealous being nonwhite might offset it some, don't expect nonwhites to just "come home" to Democrats in this race.

Popularity and electability are two different things, and can be crucial.

While Hogan may be popular, will these voters turn out for him? Thats the question that Doug Jones will have in 2020, and Brown had in 2012. Elhrich faced that problem, and he lost, while Bullock faced that problem, and won.

Nonwhites will generally vote D, as AAs are one of the most inelastic groups in the USA. Especially with an AA candidate at the D helm, the D percentage of AA votes should be higher.

I dont know anything about MD politics, so excuse my lack of knowledge for some areas in the state.

But the suburbs of DC have been shown to be rather inelastic, even for popular candidates in the past. Baltimore county also has one of the larger AA percentages in the state, so it will have the highest D floor of all the counties.

I dont know which one will vote more R or more D, but again, there are a lot of factors going against Hogan in 2018. This race will largely be a race between Popularity and literally everything else.

[Zaybay]

Which part of the state is going to be Hogan's biggest headache? I know Jealous did much better in the Baltimore area than the D.C. suburbs, but I feel like Hogan's numbers are more likely to collapse in the latter than the former.

Baltimore unless Jealous turns out to be a stronger than expected candidate. Jealous naturally has a high floor in Baltimore and he's a good fit for the area. Jealous is a worse fit for the DC suburbs, but if he does a really good job of tying Hogan to Trump and the national GOP, he can snap them back into the Dem column. It may be tough, but that alone would win it for him.

I actually think it's the other way around. I think Hogan will do best in the Baltimore suburbs. The DC suburbs are less elastic, and Hogan's from Anne Arundel County. (which is technically in the Baltimore metro)

TBH, Hogan has a lot of things going against him in both areas.
Jealous fits more with the Baltimore suburbs, and the area has a lot of AAs, which should keep his floor high. The DC suburbs, on the other hand, are very inelastic and also have a pretty good chunk of AA voters.
I think Hogan has the better chance in DC, but thats just by a hair.

In 2014, Hogan carried Baltimore County 59-39. While I don't think he'll do that well this time around, he is still quite popular there. Jealous only really has connections to Baltimore City, which is distinct from the county.

Hogan also carried Anne Arundel County by a whopping 66-32. Again, I don't think Hogan's gonna do as well there, but I think he wins it by a large margin.

I also expect Hogan to improve in the DC suburbs. He's gained more support among nonwhites through heavy courting. While Jealous being nonwhite might offset it some, don't expect nonwhites to just "come home" to Democrats in this race.

Popularity and electability are two different things, and can be crucial.

While Hogan may be popular, will these voters turn out for him? Thats the question that Doug Jones will have in 2020, and Brown had in 2012.

Nonwhites will generally vote D, as AAs are one of the most inelastic groups in the USA. Especially with an AA candidate at the D helm, the D percentage of AA votes should be higher.

I dont know anything about MD politics, so excuse my lack of knowledge for some areas in the state.

But the suburbs of DC have been shown to be rather inelastic, even for popular candidates in the past. Baltimore county also has one of the larger AA percentages in the state, so it will have the highest D floor of all the counties.

I dont know which one will vote more R or more D, but again, there are a lot of factors going against Hogan in 2018. This race will largely be a race between Popularity and literally everything else.

The reason why the suburbs around DC are inelastic is that they are largely nonwhite. The two main counties that make up most of what we refer to as the DC suburbs (Montgomery and Prince George's) are majority-minority.  Montgomery is only about 45% white, while Prince George's in only 19% white.

Meanwhile, the Baltimore suburbs (Baltimore Co, Anne Arundel, Howard) are still largely white. Baltimore is 65% white, Anne Arundel is 75% white, and Howard is 62% white.

Thus, Hogan has a significantly higher ceiling in the Baltimore suburbs than the DC suburbs.

ah, didnt know that. So I guess it would be the DC suburbs that would be more against Hogan.

[Zaybay]

Dems running on single payer in states is so dumb it has a terrible track record. Completely failed in VT and when it was up for a vote in CO got blown out. It's just not fiscally feasible for a state to do something like this. The Hogan ad is a good template of what Dems should expect when Rs start to campaign against single payer. 

Not to mention the health insurance industry is a prime economic engine in the state.

This is a big reason why I voted for Rushern Baker in the primary. Single-payer at the federal level is a different story, but at the state level? It's just not feasible. I'm very worried it would turn Maryland into the left-wing equivalent of Kansas or Oklahoma.

I doubt that it will pass, TBH. The state legislature would not let it occur. But many other D initiatives could be passed.

As I said before, I think we are looking too deep into this issue. The average MDer is not going to be like "I like Single Payer and I like Democrats and I like Jealous, but its not workable on the state level, as 1/2 the state budget will go to this. Did you know healthcare is a major industry in this state? I think ill vote for the R." This is Atlas overthinking how politics work at its finest.

Whats more likely to happen is an energized D electorate is given an energizing issue and they will vote D or abstain. Hogan needs to draw people over to him, not try to attack the D. In fact, it would be a smarter idea, IMO, just to ignore Jealous, and try to get as many D and I voters as possible.

But, then again, Im not on Hogan's campaign team, so I have no idea what the actual motivation for launching the ad was.

[Zaybay]

An F-Bomb About the S-Word

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/08/ben-jealous-drops-the-f-bomb-to-reject-the-socialism-label.html

I'm rock solid Hogan.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=95&v=KJquWpcqF0I

Bit overplayed, if you ask me, that he said that. Beto says it all the time, and so do all of us, and his was in response to a stupid question.
Anyway, wont effect the race

[Zaybay]

Jealous is imploding, awful candidate I think he manages to lose by double digits.

he just swore dude, its not that big of a deal. And Hogan would be stupid to run with this, so its likely no one will remember this after a week, or something.

[Zaybay]

I watched the interview where Jealous cussed. My verdict: he shouldn't have even apologized.

Me too. Who even cares. Anyone who thinks pols don't swear, often perfusely, behind closed doors is deluding themselves. To see someone have a human moment at a rally and/or press conference is actually kind of refreshing.

[Zaybay]

if anything, the outrage to this has sealed my vote for jealous

Now that I think about it, I agree. This may actually move voters to Jealous. Its also free press, which is never bad(unless it turns out your a pedo, where its negative)

[Zaybay]

I watched the interview where Jealous cussed. My verdict: he shouldn't have even apologized.

Me too. Who even cares. Anyone who thinks pols don't swear, often perfusely, behind closed doors is deluding themselves. To see someone have a human moment at a rally and/or press conference is actually kind of refreshing.

This literally sounds like when the Republicans make excuses when Trump craps his diaper in speeches.

Last I checked, Beto was a swearing machine, and no one complains about that.

Its a human moment, and its weird that some on Atlas think that swearing will turn off voters, cause it never has.

[Zaybay]

I watched the interview where Jealous cussed. My verdict: he shouldn't have even apologized.

Me too. Who even cares. Anyone who thinks pols don't swear, often perfusely, behind closed doors is deluding themselves. To see someone have a human moment at a rally and/or press conference is actually kind of refreshing.

This literally sounds like when the Republicans make excuses when Trump craps his diaper in speeches.

Last I checked, Beto was a swearing machine, and no one complains about that.

Its a human moment, and its weird that some on Atlas think that swearing will turn off voters, cause it never has.

Well I give Beto a pass since he's talented enough to make an R+8 seat against an midly popular incumbent competitive but Jealous is taking a dumb on a D+12 seat.

Im pretty sure Beto has had millions of $$$ and months to make the race from R+8 to R+5, while Jealous was nominated a month ago and has had to deal with an uber popular governor with Ds deserting him.

My point is that you cant hold a double standard for something as trivial as swearing. IMO, a politician swearing is a human moment, and makes the average voter connect better with them. If Jealous were to say "Im not a Socialist", it would be boring and robotic, something that doesnt increase turnout. This is why Beto uses swearing, its authentic, and makes him more relate-able.

And his response, after the swear, was actually really good, and well put.

[Zaybay]

I watched the interview where Jealous cussed. My verdict: he shouldn't have even apologized.

Me too. Who even cares. Anyone who thinks pols don't swear, often perfusely, behind closed doors is deluding themselves. To see someone have a human moment at a rally and/or press conference is actually kind of refreshing.

This literally sounds like when the Republicans make excuses when Trump craps his diaper in speeches.

Last I checked, Beto was a swearing machine, and no one complains about that.

Its a human moment, and its weird that some on Atlas think that swearing will turn off voters, cause it never has.

Well I give Beto a pass since he's talented enough to make an R+8 seat against an midly popular incumbent competitive but Jealous is taking a dumb on a D+12 seat.

Im pretty sure Beto has had millions of $$$ and months to make the race from R+8 to R+5, while Jealous was nominated a month ago and has had to deal with an uber popular governor with Ds deserting him.

My point is that you cant hold a double standard for something as trivial as swearing. IMO, a politician swearing is a human moment, and makes the average voter connect better with them. If Jealous were to say "Im not a Socialist", it would be boring and robotic, something that doesnt increase turnout. This is why Beto uses swearing, its authentic, and makes him more relate-able.

And his response, after the swear, was actually really good, and well put.

But basically like A LOT of Beto's fundraising is due to his grassroots and his awesome merits and abilities as a candidate, Ben Jealous is just sitting around like a potato. And Beto still easily outraises him even by those handicapped metrics.

Listen, Im not gonna argue which candidate is greater, because I think its Beto. What I am arguing is that swearing doesnt really impact voters at all, and can even draw more to you. The pearl-clutching that some have about this revelation is incredibly stupid.

Jealous is a good candidate facing off against a titan. If he wins, then good on Jealous, if he doesnt, then I applaud him for trying, but if we want to see how this race will go, we need to wait some more. Hogan was losing by double digits for most of the campaign, until October, when it became a 6 digit race, with Hogan down. Just like how I say to wait for September to look at TX, we should do the same for MD, and TN for that matter.

[Zaybay]

I watched the interview where Jealous cussed. My verdict: he shouldn't have even apologized.

Me too. Who even cares. Anyone who thinks pols don't swear, often perfusely, behind closed doors is deluding themselves. To see someone have a human moment at a rally and/or press conference is actually kind of refreshing.

This literally sounds like when the Republicans make excuses when Trump craps his diaper in speeches.

Last I checked, Beto was a swearing machine, and no one complains about that.

Its a human moment, and its weird that some on Atlas think that swearing will turn off voters, cause it never has.

Well I give Beto a pass since he's talented enough to make an R+8 seat against an midly popular incumbent competitive but Jealous is taking a dumb on a D+12 seat.

Im pretty sure Beto has had millions of $$$ and months to make the race from R+8 to R+5, while Jealous was nominated a month ago and has had to deal with an uber popular governor with Ds deserting him.

My point is that you cant hold a double standard for something as trivial as swearing. IMO, a politician swearing is a human moment, and makes the average voter connect better with them. If Jealous were to say "Im not a Socialist", it would be boring and robotic, something that doesnt increase turnout. This is why Beto uses swearing, its authentic, and makes him more relate-able.

And his response, after the swear, was actually really good, and well put.

But basically like A LOT of Beto's fundraising is due to his grassroots and his awesome merits and abilities as a candidate, Ben Jealous is just sitting around like a potato. And Beto still easily outraises him even by those handicapped metrics.

Listen, Im not gonna argue which candidate is greater, because I think its Beto. What I am arguing is that swearing doesnt really impact voters at all, and can even draw more to you. The pearl-clutching that some have about this revelation is incredibly stupid.

Jealous is a good candidate facing off against a titan. If he wins, then good on Jealous, if he doesnt, then I applaud him for trying, but if we want to see how this race will go, we need to wait some more. Hogan was losing by double digits for most of the campaign, until October, when it became a 6 digit race, with Hogan down. Just like how I say to wait for September to look at TX, we should do the same for MD, and TN for that matter.

I could see the gap on this one narrowing, and it is a winnable race, hopefully Jealous can pull through for us.

I should probably say, when I said double digits, I mean he was down by around 20 points. Hogan didnt start gaining traction until mid-October.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maryland_gubernatorial_election,_2014

[Zaybay]

Sabato's Crystal Ball rating change:

From Lean R to Likely R.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-governors-2018-ratings-changes-abound/

Agree with this. Jealous is a bad fit for the state. People forget that Hogan was elected partly as a backlash to over-taxation, and Jealous running as an outright liberal will make it easy for Hogan to remind voters of that.

Of course, things could change between now and November, but Likely R is a legitimate rating for now.

Thats the key phrase

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1031627972036489217

I mean, that was only the first round of endorsements, and it was mostly for house candidates. But yeah, the tweet is correct, Im sure the D party and Jealous will get the endorsement later though. Joe Biden gave his endorsement, and Im pretty sure Obama has nothing to lose by doing this.

[Zaybay]

Do people forget Brown lost in 2014 in part because of the backlash to O'Malley's tax policies? Things like the rain tax were really unpopular and Hogan tied Brown to that as much as possible. Blue state Rs win mostly because they run as fiscal conservatives and vow not to raise taxes. This is why I think Jealous has no path, he's pushing even higher taxes than what O'Malley or Brown were even considering.

Im pretty sure that what happened was that a 2014 wave swayed indies over to Hogan and Democrats had abysmal turnout. Hogan was trailing in every poll but one, so its clear that it was an election day turnout that gave him a victory. MA didnt elected Baker due to taxes, and neither was Elrich, Sununu, or Scott, its just that they ran better campaigns and were able to win over moderate indie voters, and suppress enough of the D vote. Taxes are not the one decision that voters make their decision off of, if it was, Malloy would have lost in 2014, or an R would be likely to win this year.

Does Jealous have a chance? yes, and it requires holding 90% of the AA vote, and getting 35% of the white vote, or making sure that D turnout is high and R turnout low, which is the Blue Wave's job. That is why the Obama endorsement can make a difference, which is why its a bit sad that he hasnt done so yet.

[Zaybay]

Pat Toomey and Ron Johnson won due to they fact they endorsed Obama's own gun background check. And Sestak was deemed unwinnable, and then polls after the nominating contest showed that he was the better candidate.

Hogan, like Toomey, supports gun control

I know you are Olawakandi, and there is no way to reason with you, but how is supporting gun control guaranteeing Hogan reelection?

[Zaybay]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1032727515054465025/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Eembeddedtimeline%7Ctwterm%5E345660015270559744&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fpolitics1.com%2F

Congrats, Hogan!

I know this is Atlas, but I dont think anyone cares about this, like, at all. The swearing event, which has already been forgotten at this point, will have a deeper effect.

[Zaybay]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1032727515054465025/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Eembeddedtimeline%7Ctwterm%5E345660015270559744&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fpolitics1.com%2F

Congrats, Hogan!

I know this is Atlas, but I dont think anyone cares about this, like, at all. The swearing event, which has already been forgotten at this point, will have a deeper effect.

Jealous was a weak candidate to begin with and was gonna lose anyway, but the last thing he needs is for his campaign to have its twitter account like a pro-cop killing comment.  The swearing thing is dumb, but this will look pretty gross to voters.  Jealous can’t be making dumb mistakes like this if he wants to have a prayer against Hogan.

I think you misunderstand me, Bolton. Im not saying this is a positive development, Im saying this means nothing. As in nobody cares. On atlas, its easy to get sucked into the bubble that every development means something, but with actual voters, it doesnt. Im saying that this will have an effect on 1 voter tops, and, like the swearing comment, will probably not even be remembered by the 6 voters who saw this.

[Zaybay]

Looks like Hogan is starting to have some Jealous style mishaps.
https://twitter.com/American_Bridge/status/1033012693203136512

[Zaybay]

Jealous is seen as anti-police. That should help him in Baltimore County. /sarc

Jealous will win the Maryland black vote, but he will lose the white vote badly.

Jealous will be lucky to get more than 30% of the white vote in liberal Maryland.

Hes already winning 33% of the white vote in polling so far, in fact, its the AA vote that is undecided, which is why he is always down, funny enough.