MD-Gov: Don't be Jealous!
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  MD-Gov: Don't be Jealous!
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Author Topic: MD-Gov: Don't be Jealous!  (Read 31613 times)
PragmaticPopulist
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« on: June 21, 2017, 10:53:35 PM »
« edited: September 08, 2018, 08:59:53 AM by PragmaticPopulist »

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/bs-md-baker-governor-20170620-story.html

Could make a play for the same base as Jealous, splitting the base and allowing another Democrat, such as Kevin Kamenetz or John Delaney, to win the primary.
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Pollster
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« Reply #1 on: June 22, 2017, 01:16:12 PM »

Baker or Delaney will probably get the most establishment support. Delaney reps Montgomery County, while Baker reps Prince George's. As both are the highest populated in the state, turnout, as well as appeal in the Baltimore area, would likely decide the primary (this assumes Delaney runs).
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #2 on: June 22, 2017, 01:23:08 PM »

This is rapidly approaching clown-car level.
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PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #3 on: June 22, 2017, 01:38:58 PM »

This is rapidly approaching clown-car level.
Why so? Baker seems like a solid candidate, and Delaney would probably be the most-recognized name in the group. Aside from his unique name, I don't think Jealous has much appeal outside the Bernie base, and Maryland isn't a Sander-esque sort of state.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #4 on: June 22, 2017, 01:39:26 PM »

Baker or Delaney will probably get the most establishment support. Delaney reps Montgomery County, while Baker reps Prince George's. As both are the highest populated in the state, turnout, as well as appeal in the Baltimore area, would likely decide the primary (this assumes Delaney runs).
You don't think Alec Ross has a shot?
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PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #5 on: June 22, 2017, 01:44:14 PM »

Baker or Delaney will probably get the most establishment support. Delaney reps Montgomery County, while Baker reps Prince George's. As both are the highest populated in the state, turnout, as well as appeal in the Baltimore area, would likely decide the primary (this assumes Delaney runs).
You don't think Alec Ross has a shot?
Doubtful at this moment, since he doesn't have much name recognition. Of course, that could change.
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MAINEiac4434
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #6 on: June 22, 2017, 01:45:06 PM »

This is rapidly approaching clown-car level.
Why so? Baker seems like a solid candidate, and Delaney would probably be the most-recognized name in the group. Aside from his unique name, I don't think Jealous has much appeal outside the Bernie base, and Maryland isn't a Sander-esque sort of state.
Just five candidates already for a seat that'll be incredibly difficult to pry off the Republicans.
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PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #7 on: June 22, 2017, 01:52:16 PM »

This is rapidly approaching clown-car level.
Why so? Baker seems like a solid candidate, and Delaney would probably be the most-recognized name in the group. Aside from his unique name, I don't think Jealous has much appeal outside the Bernie base, and Maryland isn't a Sander-esque sort of state.
Just five candidates already for a seat that'll be incredibly difficult to pry off the Republicans.
Hogan is definitely favored for reelection right now, but that doesn't mean he's definitely gonna survive. Maryland doesn't have as long a history of electing moderate Republican governors as Massachusetts or Connecticut (Ehrlich was the first Republican governor since Spiro Agnew), and isn't very elastic on the state level. Ehrlich was also defeated in 2006 when he had a net positive approval rating.
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Cactus Jack
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« Reply #8 on: June 22, 2017, 02:02:49 PM »

This race is a Tossup even if there is a GOP wave and regardless of who the Democrats nominate. This is Maryland we are talking about.

Sadly so for Hogan. Wasn't Ehrlich shot down even though his approval ratings were solid?
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swf541
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« Reply #9 on: June 22, 2017, 02:19:57 PM »

This race is a Tossup even if there is a GOP wave and regardless of who the Democrats nominate. This is Maryland we are talking about.

Sadly so for Hogan. Wasn't Ehrlich shot down even though his approval ratings were solid?

Yep and Delaney is in (endorsed and will vote for, decent congressman, i live in western maryland so he is my rep)

Ehrlich had decent #s but got wiped out by the wave and you know it being MD.  High turnout in Maryland dooms gop even if they have decent numbers Hogan largely won due to low turnout and dissatisfaction with O'Malley
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Maxwell
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« Reply #10 on: June 22, 2017, 05:19:51 PM »

didn't Delaney almost lose in 2014 to a god damn wacko?
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Cactus Jack
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« Reply #11 on: June 22, 2017, 06:16:26 PM »

didn't Delaney almost lose in 2014 to a god damn wacko?

He nearly lost, but from what I can remember, Bongino was a generic Gary Johnson type libertarian without Johnson's baffling cluelessness.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #12 on: June 23, 2017, 01:34:05 AM »

Baker or Delaney will probably get the most establishment support. Delaney reps Montgomery County, while Baker reps Prince George's. As both are the highest populated in the state, turnout, as well as appeal in the Baltimore area, would likely decide the primary (this assumes Delaney runs).
You don't think Alec Ross has a shot?
Doubtful at this moment, since he doesn't have much name recognition. Of course, that could change.
They say he is something of a genius.


Anyway, Bongino is just a semi-bizarro-bertarian, like Gary Johnson, Bill Weld, and Nicholas Sarwark.
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Pollster
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« Reply #13 on: June 23, 2017, 09:54:35 AM »

I don't see Jealous going very far - as previously mentioned he is a Bernie candidate running in a machine state. If Donna Edwards, a significantly better candidate, wasn't able to beat the machine-backed candidate last year then I don't see Jealous doing so either.

Is Delaney announced? Not seeing so anywhere.
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Beet
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« Reply #14 on: June 23, 2017, 12:26:47 PM »

I don't see Jealous going very far - as previously mentioned he is a Bernie candidate running in a machine state. If Donna Edwards, a significantly better candidate, wasn't able to beat the machine-backed candidate last year then I don't see Jealous doing so either.

Is Delaney announced? Not seeing so anywhere.

Exactly - Maryland has a history of preferring establishment Democrats.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #15 on: June 25, 2017, 09:29:11 PM »

didn't Delaney almost lose in 2014 to a god damn wacko?

He nearly lost, but from what I can remember, Bongino was a generic Gary Johnson type libertarian without Johnson's baffling cluelessness.

nah Bongino is a Trumpist loser. Delaney is a weak establishment candidate.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #16 on: July 13, 2017, 08:42:09 PM »

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/341839-sanders-back-former-naacp-head-in-maryland-gov-race

Jealous earns the coveted Bernie Sanders endorsement...If he can consolidate Sanders supporters, he might have the inside track to the nomination as everyone else divides the rest of the vote.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #17 on: July 13, 2017, 08:51:56 PM »

Sanders got annihilated in Maryland though. Clinton beat him by 30 points.
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Shameless Lefty Hack
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« Reply #18 on: July 13, 2017, 08:58:51 PM »

Sanders got annihilated in Maryland though. Clinton beat him by 30 points.

In a head to head race. 35% of the vote wins if your two opponents get 32.5 each.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #19 on: July 13, 2017, 09:05:26 PM »

Sanders got annihilated in Maryland though. Clinton beat him by 30 points.

In a head to head race. 35% of the vote wins if your two opponents get 32.5 each.

Agreed, plus depending on who else runs I could imagine Ben doing better with the African American community than Bernie did.
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Shameless Lefty Hack
Chickenhawk
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« Reply #20 on: July 13, 2017, 09:11:13 PM »

Sanders got annihilated in Maryland though. Clinton beat him by 30 points.

In a head to head race. 35% of the vote wins if your two opponents get 32.5 each.

Agreed, plus depending on who else runs I could imagine Ben doing better with the African American community than Bernie did.

Plus like... He's the former head of the NAACP, which engaged in political campaigns in Maryland under his tenure. I'm pretty sure he's acquainted with the political dynamics of the Maryland Democratic party. I'll assume he didn't get in saying "oh yeah my message is just gonna resonate and I'm going to win."
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KingSweden
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« Reply #21 on: July 13, 2017, 10:03:50 PM »

I think Jealous is a strong candidate in his own right. Doubt a Sanders endorsement will matter much, even in fundraising (the NASCP boss will have plentyyyy of connex for that independently)
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America Needs R'hllor
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« Reply #22 on: July 14, 2017, 02:59:25 AM »

Now we just need a democrat with the last name "Hogan" to run in Massachusetts.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #23 on: July 14, 2017, 10:18:51 PM »

Sanders got annihilated in Maryland though. Clinton beat him by 30 points.

In a head to head race. 35% of the vote wins if your two opponents get 32.5 each.

Agreed, plus depending on who else runs I could imagine Ben doing better with the African American community than Bernie did.

Plus like... He's the former head of the NAACP, which engaged in political campaigns in Maryland under his tenure. I'm pretty sure he's acquainted with the political dynamics of the Maryland Democratic party. I'll assume he didn't get in saying "oh yeah my message is just gonna resonate and I'm going to win."

Being the former head of the NAACP didn't help Kweisi Mfume in his run for Senate, and Mfume was much more qualified than Jealous. Jealous and Baker could easily split the black vote in the primary, but if Raskin comes out swinging for Jealous, he could do well in the 8th.
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Shameless Lefty Hack
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« Reply #24 on: July 14, 2017, 10:23:55 PM »

Sanders got annihilated in Maryland though. Clinton beat him by 30 points.

In a head to head race. 35% of the vote wins if your two opponents get 32.5 each.

Agreed, plus depending on who else runs I could imagine Ben doing better with the African American community than Bernie did.

Plus like... He's the former head of the NAACP, which engaged in political campaigns in Maryland under his tenure. I'm pretty sure he's acquainted with the political dynamics of the Maryland Democratic party. I'll assume he didn't get in saying "oh yeah my message is just gonna resonate and I'm going to win."

Being the former head of the NAACP didn't help Kweisi Mfume in his run for Senate, and Mfume was much more qualified than Jealous. Jealous and Baker could easily split the black vote in the primary, but if Raskin comes out swinging for Jealous, he could do well in the 8th.

Wasn't referring to it as a resume point so much as referring to the fact that he's operated in MD before and in a non Bernie context.
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