WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin

[Blackacre]

Glass houses, Jenkins

[KingSweden]

Jenkins slams Morrissey's ties to president Hillary Clinton:

Is this even legal?

[Bidenworth2020]

cant wait till big daddy don makes an endorsement!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Jenkins slams Morrissey's ties to president Hillary Clinton:

This is pathetic. That doesn't even look convincing! It seems that Jenkins is hoping that the Republican blind fury against Clinton is blind to a literal level so that they don't notice the obvious photo shop.

[OneJ]

Jenkins slams Morrissey's ties to president Hillary Clinton:

This is pathetic. That doesn't even look convincing! It seems that Jenkins is hoping that the Republican blind fury against Clinton is blind to a literal level so that they don't notice the obvious photo shop.

SAD!

[Alabama_Indy10]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/west-virginias-joe-manchin-is-vulnerable-but-will-the-gop-blow-its-chance/

New 538 article about the race

[Badger]

Holy Hell.....

https://twitter.com/LPDonovan/status/992156444760989697?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.foxnews.com%2Fpolitics%2F2018%2F05%2F03%2Fdon-blankenship-hits-mcconnells-china-family-in-new-ad-as-trump-jr-tells-voters-to-reject-him.html&tfw_creator=foxnews&tfw_site=foxnews

[ON Progressive]

Holy Hell.....

https://twitter.com/LPDonovan/status/992156444760989697?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.foxnews.com%2Fpolitics%2F2018%2F05%2F03%2Fdon-blankenship-hits-mcconnells-china-family-in-new-ad-as-trump-jr-tells-voters-to-reject-him.html&tfw_creator=foxnews&tfw_site=foxnews

How much money did it cost to produce that ad? 10 dollars?

[Doimper]

Holy Hell.....

https://twitter.com/LPDonovan/status/992156444760989697?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.foxnews.com%2Fpolitics%2F2018%2F05%2F03%2Fdon-blankenship-hits-mcconnells-china-family-in-new-ad-as-trump-jr-tells-voters-to-reject-him.html&tfw_creator=foxnews&tfw_site=foxnews

A fat coal billionaire stands by himself, banjos twanging in the background, and solemnly informs the camera that the elites are conspiring against him

This ad is pretty much the distilled essence of West Virginia

[Pericles]

This primary is a joke, what a bunch of clowns.

[7,052,770]

https://twitter.com/sfpathe/status/992202466648383488

[Alabama_Indy10]

Holy Hell.....

https://twitter.com/LPDonovan/status/992156444760989697?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.foxnews.com%2Fpolitics%2F2018%2F05%2F03%2Fdon-blankenship-hits-mcconnells-china-family-in-new-ad-as-trump-jr-tells-voters-to-reject-him.html&tfw_creator=foxnews&tfw_site=foxnews

I literally laughed out loud at this

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/sfpathe/status/992202466648383488

He sounds like someone who isn't even fluent in English. Good grief.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Blakenship is the id of the GOP.

[GMantis]

A bit late, but this as by Jenkins caught my attention:

https://twitter.com/EvanJenkinsWV/status/979400145728139264

Almost classical - running against Hillary and insulting the places which voted for her. I have to say that despite the many faults of the Democrats, I don't remember them openly insulting Republican parts of the US any time recently.

[Blair]

Wait, how the hell has it got buried that he said that Negro was a race?

[junior chįmp]

A bit late, but this as by Jenkins caught my attention:

https://twitter.com/EvanJenkinsWV/status/979400145728139264

Almost classical - running against Hillary and insulting the places which voted for her. I have to say that despite the many faults of the Democrats, I don't remember them openly insulting Republican parts of the US any time recently.

Ahhh....adopting that very successful Saccone/Moore/Gillespie winning strategy. What a bunch of losers

[kyc0705]

Holy Hell.....

https://twitter.com/LPDonovan/status/992156444760989697?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.foxnews.com%2Fpolitics%2F2018%2F05%2F03%2Fdon-blankenship-hits-mcconnells-china-family-in-new-ad-as-trump-jr-tells-voters-to-reject-him.html&tfw_creator=foxnews&tfw_site=foxnews

Not only do the phrases "China people" and "West Virginia people" indicate that his grasp on the English language is tentative at best, he also hasn't thought to hire a filmmaking team that understands shot selection.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Hopefully some bad news for Jenkins here. His congressional district compromises well over 32% of the state's population, and yet just slightly over 26% of the registered GOP ballots are coming from his district in the primary so far. Hopefully this follows the narrative that a lot of the Jenkins base are registered democrats, of whom those democrats, few to none could vote for him in a primary. Let's hope this narrative is true, but the numbers are encouraging so far. Here is a doc I found with results updated on the morning of the 4th of May 2018:

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/8f557e1c6ac0b5aa70dfd4c00/files/7130e4ce-e174-4f99-83d6-0e794c89961e/P18_EV_Abs_050418.pdf

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Hopefully some bad news for Jenkins here. His congressional district compromises well over 32% of the state's population, and yet just slightly over 26% of the registered GOP ballots are coming from his district in the primary so far. Hopefully this follows the narrative that a lot of the Jenkins base are registered democrats, of whom those democrats, few to none could vote for him in a primary. Let's hope this narrative is true, but the numbers are encouraging so far. Here is a doc I found with results updated on the morning of the 4th of May 2018:

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/8f557e1c6ac0b5aa70dfd4c00/files/7130e4ce-e174-4f99-83d6-0e794c89961e/P18_EV_Abs_050418.pdf

Promising so far, but keep in mind there's only 50,000 votes so far. In 2014, there were 219,510 votes total in the primaries. I'd expect around 230,000 people to vote in the 2018 primaries.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Hopefully some bad news for Jenkins here. His congressional district compromises well over 32% of the state's population, and yet just slightly over 26% of the registered GOP ballots are coming from his district in the primary so far. Hopefully this follows the narrative that a lot of the Jenkins base are registered democrats, of whom those democrats, few to none could vote for him in a primary. Let's hope this narrative is true, but the numbers are encouraging so far. Here is a doc I found with results updated on the morning of the 4th of May 2018:

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/8f557e1c6ac0b5aa70dfd4c00/files/7130e4ce-e174-4f99-83d6-0e794c89961e/P18_EV_Abs_050418.pdf

Promising so far, but keep in mind there's only 50,000 votes so far. In 2014, there were 219,510 votes total in the primaries. I'd expect around 230,000 people to vote in the 2018 primaries.

That is why I keep saying hope and hopefully and saying that I wish the narrative is true and that it holds up, I am not calling anything by far lol. I am just saying that this is a shred of good news for us Team Manchiners, and that my guess is that Morrisey narrowly wins the primary, but it is too early to call anything yet.

[Canis]

Good news for dems leading in primary ballots cast as we all know there are plenty of DINOS in WV but Manchin is good about winning that group

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Yeah, if the enthusiasm gap is evident even in WV of all states, it would be one of the worst signs for Republicans yet (they can probably kiss the Senate goodbye in that case). Also becoming more and more convinced that Jenkins will lose the primary.

[Skill and Chance]

Hopefully some bad news for Jenkins here. His congressional district compromises well over 32% of the state's population, and yet just slightly over 26% of the registered GOP ballots are coming from his district in the primary so far. Hopefully this follows the narrative that a lot of the Jenkins base are registered democrats, of whom those democrats, few to none could vote for him in a primary. Let's hope this narrative is true, but the numbers are encouraging so far. Here is a doc I found with results updated on the morning of the 4th of May 2018:

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/8f557e1c6ac0b5aa70dfd4c00/files/7130e4ce-e174-4f99-83d6-0e794c89961e/P18_EV_Abs_050418.pdf

Promising so far, but keep in mind there's only 50,000 votes so far. In 2014, there were 219,510 votes total in the primaries. I'd expect around 230,000 people to vote in the 2018 primaries.

That is why I keep saying hope and hopefully and saying that I wish the narrative is true and that it holds up, I am not calling anything by far lol. I am just saying that this is a shred of good news for us Team Manchiners, and that my guess is that Morrisey narrowly wins the primary, but it is too early to call anything yet.

I don't think this is going to be close enough to come down to Jenkins being a better candidate than Morrisey.  It's likely to either be Manchin winning or losing by 7-15%.  The Trump Dems either come home for him or they don't.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Hopefully some bad news for Jenkins here. His congressional district compromises well over 32% of the state's population, and yet just slightly over 26% of the registered GOP ballots are coming from his district in the primary so far. Hopefully this follows the narrative that a lot of the Jenkins base are registered democrats, of whom those democrats, few to none could vote for him in a primary. Let's hope this narrative is true, but the numbers are encouraging so far. Here is a doc I found with results updated on the morning of the 4th of May 2018:

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/8f557e1c6ac0b5aa70dfd4c00/files/7130e4ce-e174-4f99-83d6-0e794c89961e/P18_EV_Abs_050418.pdf

Promising so far, but keep in mind there's only 50,000 votes so far. In 2014, there were 219,510 votes total in the primaries. I'd expect around 230,000 people to vote in the 2018 primaries.

That is why I keep saying hope and hopefully and saying that I wish the narrative is true and that it holds up, I am not calling anything by far lol. I am just saying that this is a shred of good news for us Team Manchiners, and that my guess is that Morrisey narrowly wins the primary, but it is too early to call anything yet.

I don't think this is going to be close enough to come down to Jenkins being a better candidate than Morrisey.  It's likely to either be Manchin winning or losing by 7-15%.  The Trump Dems either come home for him or they don't.

Even if he lost by 15 points, that would still be bringing a giant amount of Trump voters home, none the less, Jenkins would have a much better chance of holding onto Trump dems in southern WV.