ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are

[morgieb]

I doubt this will move many votes in ND

Senators Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock sure agree with your comment.

[IceSpear]

Kind of off topic, but I had a dream last night that a poll was released that had Heitkamp leading 24-14 with 62% undecided, and everyone on Atlas took it seriously and acted like she was heavily favored because she now had a double digit lead.

Weird, I had that same dream, except it was a Beto lead.

Lol. I'm not even joking though, I really did have that dream.

Yes, I know I need to get out more, but that can wait until after the election.

[IceSpear]

I doubt this will move many votes in ND

Senators Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock sure agree with your comment.

So does President Trump, unironically though.

[SCNCmod]

Does Heitkamp have much silent vote out there lurking (ppl who don't want to admit they are voting for a Dem? 

Also- is ND a state where a more sophisticated ground game can make a decent impact (and if so- does Heitkamp have the better campaign in this regard)?

[Zaybay]

Does Heitkamp have much silent vote out there lurking (ppl who don't want to admit they are voting for a Dem? 

Also- is ND a state where a more sophisticated ground game can make a decent impact (and if so- does Heitkamp have the better campaign in this regard)?

1. No, in fact that isnt even a real occurrence. Its really just a way to justify outpreforming polls, which can easily be done by enthusiasm, unenthusiasm of the other side, partisan tactics, etc.

2. ND, being a rather small state population wise, can be decided by a couple of voters. In small states like this, ground games are what win the day. Heitkamp does have the ground game advantage, but Im unsure whether it will translate into anything, really.

[TarHeelDem]

Heitkamp does have the ground game advantage, but Im unsure whether it will translate into anything, really.

What does this even mean?

[Zaybay]

Heitkamp does have the ground game advantage, but Im unsure whether it will translate into anything, really.

What does this even mean?

It means that even a good ground game wont mean victory. Its possible that even with the best ground game out there, the state partisan lean will just erase these gains. We can only see on election day if this is the case.

[TarHeelDem]

Did the partisan lean erase those gains in 2012?

[ON Progressive]

Did the partisan lean erase those gains in 2012?

ND has shifted hard towards the GOP since then.

[Brittain33]

Did the partisan lean erase those gains in 2012?

ND has shifted hard towards the GOP since then.

So has Iowa, and yet...

[MT Treasurer]

Apparently it’s the new trend to declare Heitkamp DOA. Of course she’s extremely unlikely to survive if Republicans are having a better than expected night, but there’s no way she’s a heavy underdog in a Democratic wave year. I’d still rate this Toss-up just to be cautious, especially after what happened in 2012 and some of the special elections this year.

[Xing]

Apparently it’s the new trend to declare Heitkamp DOA. Of course she’s extremely unlikely to survive if Republicans are having a better than expected night, but there’s no way she’s a heavy underdog in a Democratic wave year. I’d still rate this Toss-up just to be cautious, especially after what happened in 2012 and some of the special elections this year.

It's funny how some people don't get the concept of a race being a "Toss-Up" or that the outcome of a race can be uncertain, even in September/October. Either a candidate is DOA or they're a lock, I guess.

[ON Progressive]

Did the partisan lean erase those gains in 2012?

ND has shifted hard towards the GOP since then.

So has Iowa, and yet...

Iowa went to Trump by 10, ND went to Trump by 36. Two completely uncomparable states. Also, IA has swung back hard while Trump is over 55% approval in ND.

[Old Man Willow]

Did the partisan lean erase those gains in 2012?

ND has shifted hard towards the GOP since then.

Oil is turning ND into WY.

[pppolitics]

Cramer questions whether Kavanaugh assault allegation is disqualifying — even if true

Rep. Kevin Cramer, the Republican nominee for Senate in North Dakota, questioned whether the allegation of sexual assault against Judge Brett Kavanaugh would be disqualifying for his Supreme Court nomination even if it were true.

In an interview with a local TV station, Cramer said if Christine Blasey Ford's allegation that Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her three decades ago were true, it would be "unfortunate" and "terrible," but should be weighed against his life and judicial record since that time.

"Even if it's all true, does it disqualify him? It certainly means that he did something really bad 36 years ago, but does it disqualify him from the Supreme Court?" Cramer asked.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/25/cramer-questions-kavanaugh-assault-allegation-839970

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Did the partisan lean erase those gains in 2012?

ND has shifted hard towards the GOP since then.

Oil is turning ND into WY.

Cramer questions whether Kavanaugh assault allegation is disqualifying — even if true

Rep. Kevin Cramer, the Republican nominee for Senate in North Dakota, questioned whether the allegation of sexual assault against Judge Brett Kavanaugh would be disqualifying for his Supreme Court nomination even if it were true.

In an interview with a local TV station, Cramer said if Christine Blasey Ford's allegation that Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her three decades ago were true, it would be "unfortunate" and "terrible," but should be weighed against his life and judicial record since that time.

"Even if it's all true, does it disqualify him? It certainly means that he did something really bad 36 years ago, but does it disqualify him from the Supreme Court?" Cramer asked.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/25/cramer-questions-kavanaugh-assault-allegation-839970

So, he’s doubling down? We’ll see if that pays off.

[Former Kentuckian]

This is the second time Cramer has dismissed the allegations against Kavanaugh, and this time he added that it wouldn't be disqualifying "even if" they were true.

[pppolitics]

This is the second time Cramer has dismissed the allegations against Kavanaugh, and this time he added that it wouldn't be disqualifying "even if" they were true.

At this point, I wouldn't even consider this a gaffe anymore.

[libertpaulian]

This is the second time Cramer has dismissed the allegations against Kavanaugh, and this time he added that it wouldn't be disqualifying "even if" they were true.

Braun and Hawley are notably silent on the issue.  Wise choice for them.

[Brittain33]

This is the second time Cramer has dismissed the allegations against Kavanaugh, and this time he added that it wouldn't be disqualifying "even if" they were true.

Braun and Hawley are notably silent on the issue.  Wise choice for them.

Hawley in particular knows the danger of speaking on this in his race.

[libertpaulian]

This is the second time Cramer has dismissed the allegations against Kavanaugh, and this time he added that it wouldn't be disqualifying "even if" they were true.

Braun and Hawley are notably silent on the issue.  Wise choice for them.

Hawley in particular knows the danger of speaking on this in his race.

Braun too.

[Brittain33]

This is the second time Cramer has dismissed the allegations against Kavanaugh, and this time he added that it wouldn't be disqualifying "even if" they were true.

Braun and Hawley are notably silent on the issue.  Wise choice for them.

Hawley in particular knows the danger of speaking on this in his race.

Braun too.

Oh, duh.

[MT Treasurer]

Like FL, this race could easily still trend away from Republicans. Counting Heitkamp out is foolish.

[windjammer]

Like FL, this race could easily still trend away from Republicans. Counting Heitkamp out is foolish.

^^^^^
It's a toss up, not lean rep

[TML]

Remember that 538 also factors what it calls "fundamentals" into its election forecasts, and in this case, the fundamentals favor the Democrats. Thus, by combining the polls and fundamentals, it currently considers this race as Tilt D as opposed to Tilt/Lean R (if only polls were considered).