ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are

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Impressive, but we've learned that money isn't everything, and ND could very well just be too Republican for her to win, at this point.

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If Cramer says more stupid things like this, Heitkamp may have a chance, but assuming that her personality/ideology alone is going to be enough to carry her to victory in a Trump +35 state is foolish.

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If Cramer says more stupid things like this, Heitkamp may have a chance, but assuming that her personality/ideology alone is going to be enough to carry her to victory in a Trump +35 state is foolish.

ND reelected Dorgan and Conrad in landslides every 6 years, and Cramer is no John Hoeven. Don't underestimate the power of retail politics.

Heitkamp isn't entrenched like they were (at least not yet.) Of course Heitkamp isn't going to lose by 35, but North Dakota has gotten a lot more Republican since her first election, and I don't think we can ignore that.

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Somehow, I don't think Cramer siding with Trump will hurt him in a state Trump won by 36...

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30-40%. Cramer's not the best candidate, and Republicans are already blowing this race big time. They're honestly having much more trouble in this race than they should.

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People underestimated Heitkamp in 2012 when polling showed her losing the race (sometimes even by a lot), but I’m sure they won’t be making that same mistake this year again.

North Dakota polling doesn't have the same consistent Republican bias like Nevada polling, so I wouldn't be so quick to assume that polls will underestimate Heitkamp again, at least not by the same margin.

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CNN has moved the Race from Toss Up to Lean R.

Of course ND isn't a Toss-Up but NV is.

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Who else misses January, when it was Heitkamp vs. Tom Campbell, she was incredibly popular, and the race was Lean D?

Who else misses 2017, where McCaskill was getting blanched by Ann Wagner, Sherrod Brown was losing to Josh Mandel, Bob Casey was highly vulnerable, and Tennessee and Texas were completely safe for the Republicans (moreso than Utah)?

Not to mention Donnelly had a 0% chance of winning, Baldwin was extremely vulnerable to god-tier candidate Sean Duffy while Walker was "cruising", Senator-elect Rock was going to pull off an upset against Stabenow, and Maine/Virginia were "sleeper races"

Anyway, Heitkamp being in danger should be no surprise to anyone, though obviously she can't be counted out, since a 4% lead isn't insurmountable, especially since her party is having a good year.

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Apparently it’s the new trend to declare Heitkamp DOA. Of course she’s extremely unlikely to survive if Republicans are having a better than expected night, but there’s no way she’s a heavy underdog in a Democratic wave year. I’d still rate this Toss-up just to be cautious, especially after what happened in 2012 and some of the special elections this year.

It's funny how some people don't get the concept of a race being a "Toss-Up" or that the outcome of a race can be uncertain, even in September/October. Either a candidate is DOA or they're a lock, I guess.

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Looks like Cramer is taking a course on "How to blow a lead and kill your momentum 101"

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Safest prediction ever: If the next poll shows a closer race, Cramer fans will cling to the Fox poll, while Heitkamp fans will say that they knew the Fox poll was wrong and that Heitkamp is still going to win. I swear, the dramatic reactions to single polls around here make me question why I spend so much time here. I guess it's going to be pretty bad, now that we're in the home stretch.

Anyway, I always thought Heitkamp would have a hard time for reasons I've explained before, and while she's struggling even more than I thought, it's not like losing a seat in ND means that the "Democrats are in disarray." The Fox polls themselves suggest that both McCaskill and Donnelly could survive even as Heitkamp gets crushed, if you take the polls at face value.

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Safest prediction ever: If the next poll shows a closer race, Cramer fans will cling to the Fox poll, while Heitkamp fans will say that they knew the Fox poll was wrong and that Heitkamp is still going to win. I swear, the dramatic reactions to single polls around here make me question why I spend so much time here. I guess it's going to be pretty bad, now that we're in the home stretch.

Anyway, I always thought Heitkamp would have a hard time for reasons I've explained before, and while she's struggling even more than I thought, it's not like losing a seat in ND means that the "Democrats are in disarray." The Fox polls themselves suggest that both McCaskill and Donnelly could survive even as Heitkamp gets crushed, if you take the polls at face value.

DKE is less reactive than this place

How many incumbents trailing by double digits in multiple polls a month before the election ended up winning in the end? I can't imagine there are very many. So no, it's not "overreaction" at all to think Heitkamp is screwed.

And again, there have been two polls showing her down double digits, not just one. So if anything, if a poll came out showing Cramer +3 or something that would be the outlier.

Saying Heitkamp is screwed might not be, but the idea that this means that the Democrats are tanking overall definitely is, since the same pollster found a tie in MO and Donnelly up 2 in Indiana, suggesting that what's going on in North Dakota probably can't just be extrapolated to other races.

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Well, at least Heitkamp has some integrity. That's more than can be said for a lot of politicians. I really don't think switching to a yes would've helped her, though. Republicans would've painted her as duplicitous, and still attacked her, and the Democrats might have cut her off entirely. She might be reasoning that it comes off better for her to stand her ground. We'll see if she's right or not. I know the pro-Kavanaugh folks want her to be wrong, but that's not how reality works.

Either way, it's dumb of the NRSC to pull out, since it really doesn't cost that much, and ND is small enough that if she and the Democrats have the advertising to themselves, this race could tighten back up.

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The only way I see Heitkamp winning is if the polls are somehow more GOP leaning than 2012, and I find a state like ND having a dozen point polling error in favour of a Democrat very implausible.

I think the other possibility is that polls are currently exaggerating the reaction to the Kavanaugh situation, and that Cramer's numbers will come back down to earth. Not saying it's likely, but we'll see.

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https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1049266865598619648

Unfortunately for Heitkamp, she lives in a state where most voters are going to side with C(R)amer on this one.

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Republicans cheat to win, example number 562.

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Those around in 2017 know that I've always been bearish on Heitkamp's chances, but I always thought this would at least be close. Now, it's looking like she could actually get Kirk'd.

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No, it's because North Dakota is one of the most Republican states in the country.

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What about Donna Shalala?