Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[Tender Branson]

Kern to Kurz: "You have no real plan, you only have headlines in your campaign platform. And the voters need to be aware of that. The only plan you have is to slash social services big time like in the previous ÖVP-FPÖ government."

[Tender Branson]

Kern is in full "I've got nothing to lose anymore." debate mode tonight.

IMO a very good debate performance today.

[Tender Branson]

OGM poll results for the two PULS 4 TV debates yesterday:

Kurz vs. Kern: Kurz beats Kern by a 47-38 margin.

Kurz vs. Strache: Strache beats Kurz by a 43-36 margin.

[Tender Branson]

Vorarlberg is also reporting record postal ballot requests:

http://www.vol.at/nationalratswahl-beantragung-von-wahlkarten-noch-moeglich/5498331

I think 1 million requests are possible for this election (out of 5 million votes that are likely to be cast).

[Tender Branson]

VdB says he wants to block a blue Foreign Minister.

The FPÖ has said that Norbert Hofer would become their candidate for this post if they are in the next government.

That's especially interesting because the FM is usually the most popular cabinet member and Hofer said he wants to challenge VdB again in 2022 ...

https://m.kurier.at/politik/inland/bundespraesident-wuenscht-keinen-blauen-aussenminister/291.043.551

[Tender Branson]

Probably the last poll before the election, from anti-Kern tabloid Ö24 and Research Affairs:



http://m.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/wahl2017/oevp/Letzte-Umfrage-vor-der-Wahl/303247208

[Boomer sooner]

Vienna is certainly living up to its Cold War spy hub reputation

[mvd10]

VdB says he wants to block a blue Foreign Minister.

The FPÖ has said that Norbert Hofer would become their candidate for this post if they are in the next government.

That's especially interesting because the FM is usually the most popular cabinet member and Hofer said he wants to challenge VdB again in 2022 ...

https://m.kurier.at/politik/inland/bundespraesident-wuenscht-keinen-blauen-aussenminister/291.043.551

Will VdB even run for reelection in 2022? He will be 78 in 2022.

[Tender Branson]

VdB says he wants to block a blue Foreign Minister.

The FPÖ has said that Norbert Hofer would become their candidate for this post if they are in the next government.

That's especially interesting because the FM is usually the most popular cabinet member and Hofer said he wants to challenge VdB again in 2022 ...

https://m.kurier.at/politik/inland/bundespraesident-wuenscht-keinen-blauen-aussenminister/291.043.551

Will VdB even run for reelection in 2022? He will be 78 in 2022.

If he remains healthy and somewhat popular, probably yes.

[Tender Branson]

Very powerful debate performance from Chancellor Kern in the public ORF debate right now against Kurz ...

[Tender Branson]

Tomorrow: the final ORF debate with all major party frontrunners.

Will be watched by every 3rd Austrian.

[Tender Branson]

I feel a lot more comfortable with my vote for Kern after his good debate performance today.

Maye he can close the gap in the next days, but I remain very sceptical.

[TheSaint250]

I feel a lot more comfortable with my vote for Kern after his good debate performance today.

Maye he can close the gap in the next days, but I remain very sceptical.

Who won, and how did Kurz and Strache do?

[Oryxslayer]

I feel a lot more comfortable with my vote for Kern after his good debate performance today.

Maye he can close the gap in the next days, but I remain very sceptical.

Who won, and how did Kurz and Strache do?

OGM poll results for the two PULS 4 TV debates yesterday:

Kurz vs. Kern: Kurz beats Kern by a 47-38 margin.

Kurz vs. Strache: Strache beats Kurz by a 43-36 margin.

I also figured it was time to get in here, since I have been following the election since the spring, and so it isn't weird when I inevitably join the discussion on election night.

[Tender Branson]

I feel a lot more comfortable with my vote for Kern after his good debate performance today.

Maye he can close the gap in the next days, but I remain very sceptical.

Who won, and how did Kurz and Strache do?

Impossible to say because the ORF duels have no polls of debate watchers like Puls 4 debates.

I think all 3 main candidates are really good debaters and made their positions clear to voters.

It will be really hard to predict this election, everything seems possible on Sunday ...

[TheSaint250]

I feel a lot more comfortable with my vote for Kern after his good debate performance today.

Maye he can close the gap in the next days, but I remain very sceptical.

Who won, and how did Kurz and Strache do?

Impossible to say because the ORF duels have no polls of debate watchers like Puls 4 debates.

I think all 3 main candidates are really good debaters and made their positions clear to voters.

It will be really hard to predict this election, everything seems possible on Sunday ...

Ah ok.

From what past elections have shown, whoever has the momentum usually does a little better than the polls show, and those who are going down usually do worse (Germany and the Netherlands). If this holds, ÖVP might just do a tiny bit worse, FPÖ will move into 25% or above, and SPÖ will continue to collapse.

[Tender Branson]

Tonight at 8:15 pm, the final ORF debate between all major candidates will take place - the most watched TV event of the campaign.

Candidates will be seated (I guess) and a representative audience will be present, but the questions will be asked by moderators only (I guess).

On the other hand, some 90% of voters have made up their minds by now - so the debate won't have all too big of an impact.

Live stream:

http://tvthek.orf.at/live/Wahl-17-Runde-der-Spitzenkandidaten/13934073

Refresh at 8:15 pm

[Tender Branson]

Some pictures of the main Kurz/Kern debate yesterday:

[Tender Branson]

Tonight at 8:15 pm, the final ORF debate between all major candidates will take place - the most watched TV event of the campaign.

Candidates will be seated (I guess) and a representative audience will be present, but the questions will be asked by moderators only (I guess).

On the other hand, some 90% of voters have made up their minds by now - so the debate won't have all too big of an impact.

Live stream:

http://tvthek.orf.at/live/Wahl-17-Runde-der-Spitzenkandidaten/13934073

Refresh at 8:15 pm

Very high quality debate so far, very civil and non-confrontational.

The first big bloc was about economy, weeding out bureaucracy for employers and achieving full employment. Now the new bloc is about making the social system more efficient.

[Tender Branson]

Strache and Kurz both agree that Austria needs to implement a reformed welfare system for newly arrived (economic) migrants in the next term along the lines ÖVP-FPÖ passed in Upper Austria recently. Kurz wants a cap at 360€ per month for foreigners, Strache wants no monetary payments at all, only a roof over the head, food and basic medical treatment. This system would scare off economic migrants.

[mileslunn]

It's looking like unless the polls are wrong or something dramatic happens the OVP will come in first.  Which seems more likely, an OVP-FPO government or a continuation of the Grand Coalition with OVP and SPO switching roles between junior and senior?

[Tender Branson]

It's looking like unless the polls are wrong or something dramatic happens the OVP will come in first.  Which seems more likely, an OVP-FPO government or a continuation of the Grand Coalition with OVP and SPO switching roles between junior and senior?

ÖVP-FPÖ is like 90% certain IMO.

[Tender Branson]

There's actually another final SHOCK poll out today, which I'll post later.

[Tender Branson]

There's actually another final SHOCK poll out today, which I'll post later.

Meinungsraum.at poll for GMX:

FPÖ pulls ahead !

Turnout projected at 80% (+5).



https://www.gmx.at/magazine/politik/wahlen/nationalratswahl/exklusive-umfrage-nationalratswahl-christian-kern-kompetentesten-sebastian-kurz-liebster-direktkandidat-32574458

I have a few problems with this poll: meinungsraum.at is an online panel only pollster and their support for small parties is between 5 and 9%, which is extremely unlikely.

[mvd10]

There's actually another final SHOCK poll out today, which I'll post later.

Meinungsraum.at poll for GMX:

FPÖ pulls ahead !

Turnout projected at 80% (+5).



https://www.gmx.at/magazine/politik/wahlen/nationalratswahl/exklusive-umfrage-nationalratswahl-christian-kern-kompetentesten-sebastian-kurz-liebster-direktkandidat-32574458

I have a few problems with this poll: meinungsraum.at is an online panel only pollster and their support for small parties is between 5 and 9%, which is extremely unlikely.

Is it an established pollster? I remember those random Belgian polls which predicted a Mélenchon landslide in the first round of the French elections lol.