Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[Tender Branson]

The old thread got too big, so it's time for the third edition of the popular series "Austrian Elections and Politics" ...

Next events:

Jan. 26, 2017: Swearing in of President-elect Alexander Van der Bellen (Greens, or Indy)

Feb. 5, 2017: Graz city council election

(...)

Oct. 1, 2017: Burgenland municipal elections

Oct. 15, 2017: early Parliamentary Election

[Tender Branson]

Currently, the top federal ÖVP-leadership (Mitterlehner/Amon) is against a coalition with the FPÖ:

http://derstandard.at/2000049135331/OeVP-Fuehrung-gegen-Koalition-mit-EU-kritischer-FPOe

They say that if the FPÖ does not abandon their anti-EU talk and policies, there's no chance that the ÖVP will enter a coalition with them after the next federal elections ...

Of course, the ÖVP can change over the next months or 1.5 years and elect Sebastian Kurz as their new leader and together with Pühringer, Lopatka etc. the voices for a ÖVP/FPÖ or FPÖVP coalition could grow again within the party ...

[FrancoAgo]

Back to the presidential elections, the challenge of may results had a bad public opinion impact? and so a swing to votes from Hofer to VdB?

[Tender Branson]

What's next for the Austrian Greens - after "their" candidate VdB won the Presidency ?

Green leader Eva Glawischnig said today in Austria's version of "Meet the Press" that the Greens will not move to the "populist left", but rather follow VdB's campaign example and broaden their base by appearing more centrist and trying to reach more rural women and younger/middle-class people while staying true to their policies on the EU, environment, labour, migration etc.

http://derstandard.at/2000049137120/Glawischnig-fuer-linkspopulistischen-Kurs-der-Gruenen-nicht-zu-haben

[Tender Branson]

Back to the presidential elections, the challenge of may results had a bad public opinion impact? and so a swing to votes from Hofer to VdB?

No, the overturning itself was popular with the voters (because people knew that the election system could need an "update").

But at the same time, voters like to punish the party/candidate that calls for new elections.

The defeat of Hofer had 100s of reasons though (look at the comments on election day on the other thread).

[ApatheticAustrian]

i think kurz/kern could prevent....MAAAAYBE the fpö one last time, but i don't think this is worth it....

easier to reject strache like haider in 2000 and install another FPÖ-chancellor....maybe some fiscal-conservative woman.

[Tender Branson]

The ORF's "Citizen Forum" will start in 10 minutes.

This is a townhall debate of all 6 party leaders (Kern, Mitterlehner, Strache, Glawischnig, Strolz and Lugar), who are taking questions from an audience of around 300 citizens about policies that matter to them and the party leaders explaining what they will do to tackle these issues next year ...

You can watch it here:

http://tvthek.orf.at/live/Buergerforum-Oesterreich-auf-dem-Pruefstand-Wie-geht-es-weiter/13894448

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Lugar?

[ApatheticAustrian]

Lugar?

chief of team stronach, frank stronach's zombie-like fringe-right-party.

[rob in cal]

   So with the Graz city council election coming up, what trends should we be looking for?  If the FPO is Austria's strongest party now, what type of performance should they be looking for in Graz?   Whats the current administration like now, and would a big FPO win change the city government?

[Tender Branson]

   So with the Graz city council election coming up, what trends should we be looking for?  If the FPO is Austria's strongest party now, what type of performance should they be looking for in Graz?   Whats the current administration like now, and would a big FPO win change the city government?

Municipal elections always have their own dynamics and the FPÖ always does much worse when compared with federal elections. I doubt they will get more than 25% in Graz, also because the Nagl-ÖVP is quite strong. The SPÖ is extremely weak and the KPÖ really strong. The Greens have a new leader there so they might not improve much.

I guess the results will not have much of an impact on federal politics.

[Tender Branson]

BTW:

The Presidential result was certified and made official yesterday.

Certificate

Results:

http://wahl16.bmi.gv.at

The result can now be challenged at the Constitutional Court until next Thursday (midnight).

[Tender Branson]

Lugar?

chief of team stronach, frank stronach's zombie-like fringe-right-party.

This "Robert Lugar" was interviewed on the ORF today for an hour and said that the "Team Stronach" will definitely run again in the next federal election, but under a different name. That's because Frank Stronach will pull out of politics soon and abandon his party and take the name rights with him.

Obviously, the newly-named team has no chances to enter parliament again. They don't even know the future name yet. Lugar mentioned something like "Team for Austria", because they cannot use the name "Team Austria" - which is already used for a group of volunteers after natural disasters ...

[ApatheticAustrian]

i think this announcement means his endless shilling for hofer and general FPÖ positions wasn't good enough to get an invitation to join the FPÖ team.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Does Griss have any political plans for the future btw?

[Tender Branson]

Does Griss have any political plans for the future btw?

Only she knows.

Griss wasn't really in the news lately, other than endorsing VdB together with ex-President Fischer in a press conference and calling for unity and a return to pragmatic centrist policies after his victory.

I see it as likely though that she could agree to be the frontrunner for NEOS in the coming federal elections. NEOS fits her worldview well and she'd win over quite a lot of ÖVP-voters and some disappointed SPÖ, Green and FPÖ-voters too. That would expand NEOS' share to about 10-12% in the federal election.

If she runs for NEOS and the ÖVP installs Kurz as their leader before the election, it is likely that Kurz will run a sharp campaign himself, trying to win over centrist voters and some FPÖ-voters.

My prediction for such a scenario (changes compared with current polling):

27% FPÖ (-7)
25% SPÖ (-1)
23% ÖVP (+5)
12% Greens (-1)
11% NEOS (+4)
  2% Others

In a Kern-Kurz-Griss scenario, these rather popular politicians from the "outside" would shape the campaign and overshadow the polarizing, tough-speaking Strache. They could actually appeal to many centrist protest voters who would otherwise vote FPÖ. I generally think the FPÖ is overpolling lately and would perform much worse than what current polling shows right now ...

I for one would seriously consider voting for the Griss-led NEOS, depending on what her campaign looks like.

[windjammer]

Is a SPÖ-NEOS-Green possible in the future?

[ApatheticAustrian]

Is a SPÖ-NEOS-Green possible in the future?

maaaaaybe it is enough, but HIIIIIIIIGHLY unlikely...would be risky for all parties but especially the smaller ones.

liberal parties are always kind of weird in austria to begin with.

[Tender Branson]

Is a SPÖ-NEOS-Green possible in the future?

Maybe, but if you look at my prediction they could have no majority.

A Griss-entry either with her own party or as NEOS frontrunner would definitely shake things up and enable more coalition options.

[Tender Branson]

Kern, Kurz and Griss running would be a real blessing for Austria to contain the FPÖ, in my opinion:

* I think the FPÖ is a bloated beast right now and tends to overpoll lately, as we have seen in Vienna last year and the two presidential runoffs. Of course, the presidential runoffs were very candidate-based and Hofer ran an outstanding personal, centrist campaign for a far-right winger - getting close to 50% twice. A record for the FPÖ so far. But with attack dog Strache back as their main candidate for the federal elections and fierce competition from popular Kurz and Griss, their success could be over again. Strache with his rants (and contrary to Hofer's modest talk) is good at bringing out the FPÖ's base (20-25%), but nothing beyond that. Considering this, Hofer's results were amazing from the FPÖ's point-of-view. Especially with every other party campaigning against them. Griss would do very well in the wealthier Vienna districts, suburbs and Vorarlberg - while Kurz would win over the rural, more conservative and nationalist minded folk who voted for Hofer in the two runoffs. The Greens would also do very well in the urban and suburban areas, while Kern would keep many teachers, social workers and even many blue-collar workers in his fold. This would not leave a lot of air left for the FPÖ and instead of the 34% now, they might end up with just about 25% or slightly higher in the end ... *hopefully*

[ApatheticAustrian]

in general i agree with Tender but i think the "over-polling" has to do with poll researchers trying to out-balance the "shy fpö" vote .....and the published "real" numbers then could lead  to a counter-push by less likely voters and strategical voters to decrease the FPÖ margin. Makes it look like the FPÖ is weaker than thought when, in fact, maybe the numbers have been correct a few weeks earlier.

btw....live from moscow:




FPÖ-EU leader and self-tazing idiot Vilimsky, FPÖ chief Strache, presidential candidate Hofer and Strache's successor (in Vienna and maybe also on a national level) Gudenus.

[Tender Branson]

Yeah, the FPÖ's addiction to Russia and Putin is pissing off a lot of Austrians (also FPÖ-voters) ...

[Tender Branson]

btw....live from moscow:

Hilarious picture.

"Education trip to Moscow: How to properly rig future elections (so we can win again)."

Thank Goodness we don't have electronic voting machines ...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Why is the Left so badly organised in Austria outside of Styria? It must be the only Western European country (aside from us FirstPastTheFailure losers) without a significant party to the left of the Social Democrat/Green Liberal mainstream.

(My thought is the KPO should, err, probably change their name)

[ApatheticAustrian]

anti-communist austria and the communist party got that base for decades, then the greens came...at that time they have been a far-left-party.....

...nowaday there just aren't enough votes left for the left, if conservatives and right-wing together get a majority of at least 50% in the last few elections.