2018 Senate Rankings

[Blackacre]

I'm doing a quick update just to test out a new way of doing my visual aid. But I have to move something, so I'm changing Michigan to Safely Democratic because it does not look at all like the GOP is trying there.

Quick word about Indiana, though: it stays at Leans D until May 8th, but Braun doesn't make it a tossup anymore, not after the story that came out today. He, like Messer, keeps the race at Leans D.

Titanium Democratic: This state doesn't even have a credible alternative to the Democrat at the ballot box. (1)
VT

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (16)
CA, NY, NM, MA, RI, ME, CT, WA, HI, DE, MD, MN, VA, MN-Special, PA, MI

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will send a Democrat to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (6)
NJ, OH, WI, NV, AZ, MT

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (3)
WV, ND, IN

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (2)
FL, TN

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (2)
MO

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (0)
Nothing here

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (1)
TX

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will send a Republican to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (2)
NE, MS-S

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (3)
MS, WY, UT

Titanium Republican: This state doesn't even have a credible alternative to the Republican at the ballot box. (0)
Nothing here

And here's a visual aid! For states with both Special elections and Regular ones, the standard election is marked with an R, and the Special is marked with an S.

Democrats: 51 seats
Republicans: 48 seats
Pure tossup: 1 seats
Uncorrelated Expected Result: ~D+0.8 (rounded to the nearest 0.1)
Leans-only Expected Result: ~D+1.2
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+1.7
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+4
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+3

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Updated:

[BlueDogs2020]

Safe D: CA, CT, DE, HI, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NM, NY, RI, VT, VA, WA, NJ
Likely D: MN (open), PA
Lean D: OH, MT, AZ
Tilt D: WV, IN, NV, FL, TN
Tilt R:  ND, MO
Lean R: TX
Likely R: MS (open)
Safe R: UT, MS, WY, NE

[LimoLiberal]

LimoLiberal Official 2018 Senate Rankings
5/6/18 (I plan to do this monthly)
Including commentary. Rating change shown in parentheses using >>

Safe R:
NE
WY
MS
UT
MS-Special (Likely R >> Safe R) - polls show Hyde-Smith with a comfortable lead and Trump is popular in MS

Likely R:
TX

Lean R:
ND
MO
TN
IN (Tilt R >> Lean R) Braun looks likely to win the primary and Donnelly faces almost insurmountable odds as Trump grows more popular in IN.

Tilt R:
FL
MT (Tilt D >> Tilt R) Tester's handling of the Jackson nomination has made him Trump's top target and it seems his popularity is waning quick.

Tossup:
AZ
NV (Tilt D >> Tossup) Two recent polls have Heller performing rather well for his supposed hyper-vulnerability, plus Trump seems barely unpopular in the state
WV (Tilt D >> Tossup) Manchin suffering heavily in recent approval rating polls and Blankenship is seemingly fading

Tilt D:  
WI

Lean D:
MN-Special
OH
NJ (Likely D >> Lean D) The Ethics Committee report was very damaging and Hugin has plenty of dough to spend

Likely D:
MI
VA
PA

Safe D:
MA
CT
RI
MN
WA
DE
MD
CA
NY

Likely I:
Nothing here.

Safe I:
VT
ME (Likely I >> Safe I) King's challengers are weak sauce.

Without allocating tossups, my current projections are 54 Republicans, 41 Democrats, 2 Independents,  and 3 Tossups.

Democrats pick up nothing, while Republicans pick up North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, Montana and Florida.

[KingSweden]

Lol Limo

Anyways I’m not making any predictions on WV and IN until after the primary. Especially in the former, where it could be anywhere from Likely D to Tossup depending on who Manchin draws

[Politician]

Absolute best-case scenario for the GOP:

This seems accurate, except they'd win Montana, and lose Wisconsin.

[Burke Bro]

Here's my prediction for now. I'm still uncertain about the status of many of these races.

Safe D/I: WA, CA, NM, MN, HI, CT, RI, VA, MD, DE, NY, MA, VT, ME

Likely D: PA, NJ

Lean D: MT, MN-Special, MI, OH

Tilt D: NV, AZ, FL, WI, IN

Tossup: WV, ND

Tilt R: MO, TN

Lean R: TX

Likely R: MS-Special

Safe R: MS, NE, WY, UT

[KingSweden]

Here's my prediction for now. I'm still uncertain about the status of many of these races.

Safe D/I: WA, CA, NM, MN, HI, CT, RI, VA, MD, DE, NY, MA, VT, ME

Likely D: PA, NJ

Lean D: MT, MN-Special, MI, OH

Tilt D: NV, AZ, FL, WI, IN

Tossup: WV, ND

Tilt R: MO, TN

Lean R: TX

Likely R: MS-Special

Safe R: MS, NE, WY, UT

I disagree about IN being safer than MO, otherwise I’m right around here too

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Wisconsin is Likely D, bordering on Solid.

[mcmikk]

My prediction for the time being.

Safe R:
-Utah
-Wyoming
-Mississippi

Likely R:
-Mississippi(Special), represented by Alabama in the map

Lean R:
-Tennessee
-Texas

Tilt R:
-none

Tossup:
-Missouri
-Indiana(subject to change depending on GOP primary results)
-West Virginia(subject to change depending on GOP primary results)

Tilt D:
-Arizona(subject to change depending on GOP primary results)
-North Dakota

Lean D:
-Montana
-Ohio
-Florida
-Nevada

Likely D:
-Wisconsin
-Pennsylvania

Safe D:
-Calfornia
-Connecticut
-Rhode Island
-Maryland
-Massachusetts
-Vermont
-Maine
-New Mexico
-Michigan
-Minnesota
-Minnesota(Special), represented by Iowa on the map
-Virginia
-Delaware
-New Jersey
-Washington
-New York

[mcmikk]

My prediction for the time being.

Safe R:
-Utah
-Wyoming
-Mississippi

Likely R:
-Mississippi(Special), represented by Alabama in the map

Lean R:
-Tennessee
-Texas

Tilt R:
-none

Tossup:
-Missouri
-Indiana(subject to change depending on GOP primary results)
-West Virginia(subject to change depending on GOP primary results)

Tilt D:
-Arizona(subject to change depending on GOP primary results)
-North Dakota

Lean D:
-Montana
-Ohio
-Florida
-Nevada

Likely D:
-Wisconsin
-Pennsylvania

Safe D:
-Calfornia
-Connecticut
-Rhode Island
-Maryland
-Massachusetts
-Vermont
-Maine
-New Mexico
-Michigan
-Minnesota
-Minnesota(Special), represented by Iowa on the map
-Virginia
-Delaware
-New Jersey
-Washington
-New York

What happened to Nebraska

It gets nuked by North Korea in this scenario.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

What does North Korea have against Nebraska?

[mcmikk]

What does North Korea have against Nebraska?

There's just nothing there. They don't like how it's just sitting there, taking up space. So they decide to nuke it.

[Heisenberg]

Absolute best-case scenario for the GOP:

This seems accurate, except they'd win Montana, and lose Wisconsin.

This. Baldwin is not as vulnerable as she looks on paper, and both Nicholson and Vukmir are lackluster candidates who do not impress me at all.

[Sestak]

Absolute best-case scenario for the GOP:

This seems accurate, except they'd win Montana, and lose Wisconsin.

This. Baldwin is not as vulnerable as she looks on paper, and both Nicholson and Vukmir are lackluster candidates who do not impress me at all.

Lmao, he's completely memeing you guys. It's a joke about how pundits essentially consider Tester state but seem a hair's breadth away from declaring Wisconsin a Tossup.

[Blackacre]

I do have a couple changes, but I'm going to wait until after the primaries to make them. Though I'm also dragging my feet because it's not great news for Democrats

[Blackacre]

Quick word about Indiana, though: it stays at Leans D until May 8th, but Braun doesn't make it a tossup anymore, not after the story that came out today. He, like Messer, keeps the race at Leans D.

Okay, so that was a boring primary as far as my senate map is concerned. Indiana and West Virginia are out of their superpositions, but they both remain exactly where they started: Leans D.

They will be joined, however, by Montana and Nevada, who are moving down from Likely. I see the national environment improving for Republicans, but thats not everything. Montana was always at the cusp of being a Lean race, and in Nevada, polling shows a tight contest and Rosen seems like a weak challenger. Leans D though because polling in the state remains crap.

Titanium Democratic: This state doesn't even have a credible alternative to the Democrat at the ballot box. (1)
VT

Safely Democratic: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Republican this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (16)
CA, NY, NM, MA, RI, ME, CT, WA, HI, DE, MD, MN, VA, MN-Special, PA, MI

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will send a Democrat to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead. (4)
NJ, OH, WI, AZ,

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins. (5)
MT, NV, WV, ND, IN

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (2)
FL, TN

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go. (2)
MO

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close. (0)
Nothing here

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins. (1)
TX

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will send a Republican to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead. (2)
NE, MS-S

Safely Republican: You would need an active imagination to envision this state voting Democratic this year. (Italicized states might become competitive in the future) (3)
MS, WY, UT

Titanium Republican: This state doesn't even have a credible alternative to the Republican at the ballot box. (0)
Nothing here

And here's a visual aid! For states with both Special elections and Regular ones, the standard election is marked with an R, and the Special is marked with an S.

Democrats: 51 seats
Republicans: 48 seats
Pure tossup: 1 seats
Uncorrelated Expected Result: ~D+0.5 (R+0.3)
Leans-only Expected Result: ~D+0.7 (R+0.5)
Tilts-only Expected Result: D+1.7 (+-0)
Reasonable Democratic Ceiling: D+4
Reasonable Republican Ceiling: R+5

There are nine competitive races this cycle: MT, IN, WV, MO, TX, TN, FL, NV, and ND. Democrats must win seven of them to gain the majority; Republicans must win three of them to keep it.

[LimoLiberal]

-->

https://twitter.com/tankcat/status/994032039971221504https://twitter.com/tankcat...

[TheSaint250]

MN-Special: Safe D
MS-Special: Safe R


Updates

Texas: Safe R --> Likely R (6/7/18)

[KingSweden]

With primaries done, I’m keeping WV at Lean D and IN at Tossup. Bold, I know.

[KingSweden]

My new 5/9 ratings.

Everything not named is Safe.

Likely R: NE, MS-S, TX

Lean R: None

Tossup: TN, ND, NV, AZ, MO, IN

Lean D: WV, FL, MT

Likely D: OH, PA, WI, VA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tossup AZ, TN, IN, MO
Tilt D NV, ND, FL , WVA
Tilt R MS, TX


Dems should break a tie with NV or have a +3 majority

[KingSweden]

Another one:

Changes:
Nebraska: Likely R->Safe R
West Virginia: Lean D->Likely D (looks like Blankensh**t might win the primary)

Update:

Changes:
West Virginia: Likely D->Lean D (with Blankensh**t gone, Manchin will now have a tougher fight)

Changes:
Montana: Lean D->Likely D
North Dakota: Lean D->Likely D

This seems way too bullish on Dems in states that red.

[KingSweden]

Changes:
Montana: Lean D->Likely D
North Dakota: Lean D->Likely D

This seems way too bullish on Dems in states that red.

MT and the Dakotas are way more D-friendly at the statewide/senatorial level, though. You could definitely make the case for Likely D: Dem wave year, strong incumbents, weak GOP field of candidates, the importance of retail politics, etc.

I think they’re (slightly) D favored, but it’s way too early to take them out of Lean

[mcmikk]

My most recent updated ratings.

Only differences are that WV has moved from Tossup to Lean D(I had it at Tossup because I didn't know how the primary would go), I remembered Nebraska this time, and I used 270towin instead of Atlas because (unpopular opinion alert)it looks much better, lol.