latest Betfair odds

[Mr. Morden]

Big surge for Bloomberg, who passes Buttigieg for 4th place…

Up: Bloomberg, Biden
Down: Sanders, Clinton

Biden 36.8
Sanders 24.7
Warren 13.1
Bloomberg 11.1
Buttigieg 10.0
Clinton 2.7
Yang 2.3
Klobuchar 1.9
Gabbard 0.5
M. Obama 0.4

[Mr. Morden]

Steyer’s strong showing in the Fox polls has put him back into the top 10…

Up: Sanders, Steyer
Down: Biden

Democrats
Biden 34.5
Sanders 26.0
Warren 13.4
Bloomberg 11.6
Buttigieg 10.0
Clinton 2.7
Yang 2.0
Klobuchar 1.9
Steyer 0.8
Gabbard 0.5

Republicans
Trump 90.9
Pence 4.3
Haley 2.7
Kasich 1.4

Four years ago today:

Democrats
Clinton 89.3
Sanders 12.2

Republicans
Rubio 34.7
Cruz 26.6
Trump 26.6
Bush 12.2
Christie 5.8
Romney 0.7
Ryan 0.4
Kasich 0.4
Carson 0.3
Huckabee 0.2

[Mr. Morden]

Not sure if this will last or just a temporary heat of the moment reaction, but the Selzer poll has pushed Sanders into the lead:

Up: Sanders, Warren
Down: Biden, Buttigieg

Sanders 31.4
Biden 28.4
Warren 14.9
Bloomberg 10.9
Buttigieg 7.8
Clinton 3.2
Yang 2.7
Klobuchar 2.0
Steyer 1.1
Gabbard 0.5

[Mr. Morden]

Well, that didn’t last long.  Biden rebounds to 1st place, though it’s now very close between him and Sanders, such that they could probably swap places a few more times.

Up: Biden
Down: Sanders, Warren

Biden 31.0
Sanders 30.5
Warren 12.4
Bloomberg 10.9
Buttigieg 7.2
Clinton 2.9
Yang 2.6
Klobuchar 1.4
Steyer 0.7
Gabbard 0.5

Four years ago today:

Rubio 33.4
Trump 28.0
Cruz 24.8
Bush 12.2
Christie 5.0
Huckabee 0.8
Romney 0.8
Carson 0.5
Ryan 0.4
Kasich 0.4

[Mr. Morden]

Sanders retakes the lead, and Bloomberg has now edged out Warren for 3rd place.

Up: Sanders, Bloomberg
Down: Biden

Sanders 32.4
Biden 29.6
Bloomberg 11.9
Warren 11.6
Buttigieg 7.2
Clinton 3.2
Yang 2.4
Klobuchar 1.4
Steyer 0.8

[Mr. Morden]

Unless something dramatic happens in the next few hours, this’ll be the last pre-debate update:

Biden back in 1st place, and Warren back in 3rd.  We’ll see how things shake out after the debate.

Up: Biden, Klobuchar
Down: Sanders

Biden 32.9
Sanders 30.0
Warren 12.4
Bloomberg 11.1
Buttigieg 7.2
Clinton 3.0
Yang 2.6
Klobuchar 2.3
Steyer 1.0
M. Obama 0.6

[Mr. Morden]

Post-debate update: So far, Warren has gained the most ground vs. pre-debate #s, but Biden has had an uptick as well.

Up: Warren, Biden
Down: Sanders, Klobuchar

Democrats
Biden 33.9
Sanders 28.4
Warren 14.5
Bloomberg 11.4
Buttigieg 7.0
Clinton 2.4
Yang 2.0
Klobuchar 1.1
Steyer 1.1
M. Obama 0.5

Republicans
Trump 92.3
Pence 2.4
Haley 2.2
Kasich 1.1
Romney 1.0
Weld 0.6

Four years ago today:

Democrats
Clinton 82.0
Sanders 19.0

Republicans
Trump 33.4
Rubio 32.9
Cruz 21.7
Bush 11.1
Christie 4.5
Romney 0.8
Ryan 0.7
Kasich 0.4
Carson 0.3
Paul 0.2

Eight years ago at about this time:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3150582#msg3150582

Romney 82.8
Gingrich 5.0
Paul 4.7
Huntsman 1.2
Santorum 1.0
Perry 0.8

Twelve years ago at about this time:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1396325#msg1396325

DEMOCRATS
Clinton 59.3
Obama 38.0
Edwards 2.0
Gore 1.2
Richardson 0.1

REPUBLICANS
McCain 40.0
Giuliani 20.2
Romney 17.7
Huckabee 12.7
Thompson 3.1
Paul 2.4
Gingrich 0.4
Rice 0.4
Bloomberg 0.2

[Ljube]

No wonder. Warren won the debate.

[Mr. Morden]

Warren is back down to where she was before the debate.

Up: Biden, Bloomberg, Clinton
Down: Warren

Democrats
Biden 35.0
Sanders 28.4
Warren 13.4
Bloomberg 12.4
Buttigieg 6.8
Clinton 3.4
Yang 2.6
Klobuchar 1.0
Gabbard 0.9
M. Obama 0.7

Republicans
Trump 91.7
Pence 3.2
Haley 2.6
Kasich 1.1
Romney 1.0

Winning Party
Republican 55.5
Democrat 47.2

[Mr. Morden]

Sanders narrowing the gap with Biden again.  And Bloomberg retakes 3rd place, as Warren drops to what I think might be her lowest price since June (when she was in 5th place, behind Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg, and Harris).

Up: Sanders, Clinton
Down: Biden, Warren, Buttigieg

Democrats
Biden 32.9
Sanders 30.5
Bloomberg 11.9
Warren 10.5
Buttigieg 6.0
Clinton 4.0
Yang 2.6
Klobuchar 1.0
M. Obama 0.9
Gabbard 0.6

Republicans
Trump 91.7
Haley 3.6
Pence 3.4
Kasich 1.1

Four years ago today:

Democrats
Clinton 82.6
Sanders 17.4

Republicans
Trump 38.0
Rubio 32.9
Cruz 20.4
Bush 10.5
Christie 4.5
Kasich 0.5
Romney 0.5
Ryan 0.4
Carson 0.3
Paul 0.2

Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3159553#msg3159553

Romney 88.7
Gingrich 5.2
Paul 3.2
Santorum 0.6
Perry 0.4

Twelve years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1398893#msg1398893

DEMOCRATS
Clinton 58.6
Obama 39.6
Edwards 1.7
Gore 1.0
Richardson 0.1

REPUBLICANS
McCain 39.4
Giuliani 19.7
Romney 19.0
Huckabee 13.0
Thompson 2.9
Paul 2.4
Gingrich 0.4
Rice 0.4
Bloomberg 0.2

Oh, and 16 years ago today was Iowa caucus eve, and the Iowa Electronic Markets still had Dean as a 51% probability favorite to win the nomination:

https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/pricehistory/pricehistory_SelectContract.cfm?market_ID=67

Dean 51.0
Clark 19.5
Kerry 15.4

[Eraserhead]

Bye Liz!

[Senator-elect Spark]

Sanders narrowing the gap with Biden again.  And Bloomberg retakes 3rd place, as Warren drops to what I think might be her lowest price since June (when she was in 5th place, behind Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg, and Harris).

Up: Sanders, Clinton
Down: Biden, Warren, Buttigieg

Democrats
Biden 32.9
Sanders 30.5
Bloomberg 11.9
Warren 10.5
Buttigieg 6.0
Clinton 4.0
Yang 2.6
Klobuchar 1.0
M. Obama 0.9
Gabbard 0.6

Republicans
Trump 91.7
Haley 3.6
Pence 3.4
Kasich 1.1

Four years ago today:

Democrats
Clinton 82.6
Sanders 17.4

Republicans
Trump 38.0
Rubio 32.9
Cruz 20.4
Bush 10.5
Christie 4.5
Kasich 0.5
Romney 0.5
Ryan 0.4
Carson 0.3
Paul 0.2

Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3159553#msg3159553

Romney 88.7
Gingrich 5.2
Paul 3.2
Santorum 0.6
Perry 0.4

Twelve years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1398893#msg1398893

DEMOCRATS
Clinton 58.6
Obama 39.6
Edwards 1.7
Gore 1.0
Richardson 0.1

REPUBLICANS
McCain 39.4
Giuliani 19.7
Romney 19.0
Huckabee 13.0
Thompson 2.9
Paul 2.4
Gingrich 0.4
Rice 0.4
Bloomberg 0.2

Oh, and 16 years ago today was Iowa caucus eve, and the Iowa Electronic Markets still had Dean as a 51% probability favorite to win the nomination:

https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/pricehistory/pricehistory_SelectContract.cfm?market_ID=67

Dean 51.0
Clark 19.5
Kerry 15.4

Sanders has a very strong chance.

[Eraserhead]

I do think Biden is underrated here at this point. PredictIt has him at 40 which looks better to me.

[The Mikado]

I do think Biden is underrated here at this point. PredictIt has him at 40 which looks better to me.

It's skewed because PredictIt's shares add up to 114 (I'm ignoring all of the 1 cent candidates and just adding up all the ones greater than 1 cent) while this site's actually add to 100.

[Ljube]

I do think Biden is underrated here at this point. PredictIt has him at 40 which looks better to me.

Biden is not underrated.
Based on his debate performance, I'd say he is overrated.

[The Mikado]

I do think Biden is underrated here at this point. PredictIt has him at 40 which looks better to me.

Biden is not underrated.
Based on his debate performance, I'd say he is overrated.

Our current president bragged about the size of his penis in a primary debate and convincingly won his nomination. I think Joe Biden's going to be fine.

[weixiaobao]

Does anyone know how to extract the betting odds data from Real Clear politics.  I could do it manually (which gonna take forever) but even then through the graph, there some numbers that obstruct from views.

[SunSt0rm]

I still don't get how Bloomberg is 3rd favourite to get the nomination.  I can't see how he can win the primary now or in the future. Yes, he spending a lot of money but has no support at all in the country and I can't see Biden support coalesce to Bloomberg against Sanders in the event Biden somehow implode

[weixiaobao]

I still don't get how Bloomberg is 3rd favorite to get the nomination.

It more like Buttigieg and Warren's chances are decreasing down as Iowa approaches.  And if those 2 withdraw, how would that impact the race.  How I look at the odd, it clearly shows that it is a Biden and Sanders race.  And Bloomberg is the biggest dark horse getting past the early stages.  Where if Buttigieg and Warren can't win Iowa and New Hampshire, they would be irrelevant pretty soon.  With 2 weeks to go, and no debate.  Unless there is a huge scandal, the trajectory already set.  And that trajectory is Buttigieg and Warren is fading in Iowa.  With a loss in Iowa, their chance of New Hampshire will fall as well.

[Mr. Morden]

And now, since my last post on Saturday, Biden’s substantially widened his lead over Sanders.  Warren rebounds somewhat as well, possibly off of the NYT endorsement (which also bumps Klobuchar from 1.0 to 1.6).

Up: Biden, Warren
Down: Sanders

Democrats
Biden 36.8
Sanders 25.4
Warren 12.8
Bloomberg 12.4
Buttigieg 6.8
Clinton 3.6
Yang 2.3
Klobuchar 1.6
M. Obama 0.8
Gabbard 0.7

Republicans
Trump 92.3
Haley 2.6
Pence 2.6
Kasich 1.1
Romney 1.0

Iowa and NH markets are still low volume, and add up to more than 100 (in NH’s case, *way* more than 100), but I’ll post them nonetheless:

Iowa
Biden 37.8
Sanders 36.8
Buttigieg 18.9
Warren 16.3

New Hampshire
Sanders 52.4
Biden 30.0
Buttigieg 20.0
Warren 12.8

Four years ago today:

Democrats
Clinton 81.3
Sanders 16.8
Biden 3.3
Warren 1.1
O’Malley 1.0

Republicans
Trump 40.7
Rubio 30.0
Cruz 19.0
Bush 10.9
Christie 3.8
Kasich 1.8
Ryan 0.4
Romney 0.4
Carson 0.3
Paul 0.2

Iowa

Dems
Clinton 60.6
Sanders 38.2

GOP
Cruz 57.8
Trump 43.1

New Hampshire

Dems
Sanders 74.1
Clinton 32.3

GOP
Trump 70.9
Kasich 18.5
Rubio 13.5
Cruz 11.9

[Eraserhead]

That junk Iowa poll from David Binder appears to have done a number on Bernie.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

So Bernie + Biden are 75 in IA and 82 in NH, but somehow are  only 62 overall even though IA and NH are 2 of the whitest states and other candidates do much worse with non white voters?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I still don't get how Bloomberg is 3rd favourite to get the nomination.  I can't see how he can win the primary now or in the future. Yes, he spending a lot of money but has no support at all in the country and I can't see Biden support coalesce to Bloomberg against Sanders in the event Biden somehow implode

I'm not sure about Betfair, but he could probably game Predictit for pocket change, if his campaign decided that looking good in online betting markets is worth any expenditure at all.

[Mr. Morden]

Sanders back above 30, and Bloomberg back in 3rd place (albeit still virtually tied with Warren for 3rd place).

Up: Sanders
Down: Warren, Bloomberg

Democrats
Biden 36.1
Sanders 30.5
Bloomberg 10.9
Warren 10.7
Buttigieg 6.4
Clinton 3.8
Yang 1.9
Klobuchar 1.1
M. Obama 0.6
Gabbard 0.3

Four years ago today:

Democrats
Clinton 80.6
Sanders 18.0
Biden 3.8

Republicans
Trump 42.6
Rubio 28.8
Cruz 14.9
Bush 11.1
Christie 3.4
Carson 3.1
Kasich 2.6
Romney 0.8
Ryan 0.8
Paul 0.2

[W]

lol to bloomberg in 3rd