latest Betfair odds

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

LOL at the establishment desperately floating the idea of Biden again.

[Mr. Morden]

LOL at the establishment desperately floating the idea of Biden again.

Actually, it looks like it's a hot tip from Trump:

https://politicalwire.com/2016/01/19/trump-suggests-biden-may-be-the-democratic-nominee/

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

PredictIt now has Trump as nearly an outright favorite:

Trump 48 (+5)
Rubio 24
Cruz 19
Jeb 9
Kasich 6
Christie 3

IOWA
Trump 52 (+7)
Cruz 48 (-4)

New Hampshire
Trump 77 (+8)
Kasich 11 (-3)
Cruz 7
Bush 4

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I don't mean to update two days in a row, but we've had major movement. It's all but over, folks.

Nomination: Last Transaction Price
Trump 59
Rubio 23
Cruz 13
Bush 9
Kasich 6
Christie 3

IOWA: Ask Price
Trump 60
Cruz: 46 (The Bid is 41 though and has been dropping steadily, last transaction at 41)

[Mr. Morden]

Carson share price spikes, while Cruz is really cratering.  Trump now (narrowly) edging Cruz as most likely candidate to win Iowa.

Up: Sanders, Trump, Carson
Down: Rubio, Cruz

Democrats
Clinton 80.6
Sanders 18.0
Biden 3.8

Republicans
Trump 42.6
Rubio 28.8
Cruz 14.9
Bush 11.1
Christie 3.4
Carson 3.1
Kasich 2.6
Romney 0.8
Ryan 0.8
Paul 0.2

Iowa

Dems
Clinton 60.0
Sanders 41.7

GOP
Trump 51.3
Cruz 47.2
Rubio 4.8

New Hampshire

Dems
Sanders 78.7
Clinton 27.4

GOP
Trump 74.6
Cruz 12.2
Rubio 12.2
Kasich 9.1

[Zanas]

Bush has virtually not moved an inch since his fall in late October. I know it has to do with the fact that people holding shares of him winning aren't willing to sell them and there are no transactions on him, but it's impressive.

[Mr. Morden]

Up: Clinton, Trump, Rubio
Down: Cruz, Carson

Democrats
Clinton 82.6
Sanders 18.6
Biden 3.4

Republicans
Trump 44.8
Rubio 30.5
Cruz 12.2
Bush 11.4
Christie 3.3
Kasich 2.3
Romney 0.9
Ryan 0.7
Carson 0.6
Paul 0.2

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3166875#msg3166875

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Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1407590#msg1407590

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[The Mikado]

If you still think Cruz will win Iowa, now would be an excellent time to buy Cruz winning the nomination shares, because his price would massively increase the day after Iowa and you could sell then and make a tidy profit.

Of course, if Cruz loses Iowa, he's headed for Rand Paul territory.

[Alcon]

Just curious how you do the Betfair estimates, Morden.  When I use Back, I get excessively high values for Biden and other candidates who clearly have rogue bettors.  When I use Lay, everyone's odds have fallen over the last two days.  I have no idea what these things are!

[Mr. Morden]

Trump over 45 now, while Cruz just keeps on dropping.  At current trajectory, Bush will be in third place in no time.  Clinton has slipped back to 80 on the Dem. side.

Democrats
Clinton 80.0
Sanders 19.3
Biden 2.5

Republicans
Trump 45.5
Rubio 31.4
Cruz 11.4
Bush 11.1
Christie 2.4
Kasich 1.5
Ryan 0.9
Romney 0.7
Carson 0.5
Paul 0.4

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3169150#msg3169150

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Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1412800#msg1412800

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[Mr. Morden]

Just curious how you do the Betfair estimates, Morden.  When I use Back, I get excessively high values for Biden and other candidates who clearly have rogue bettors.  When I use Lay, everyone's odds have fallen over the last two days.  I have no idea what these things are!

I use the #s listed on Oddschecker:

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/republican-candidate

They have the numbers listed for all the bookies, but the #s listed on the right hand side show the prices from the "peer-to-peer" betting sites, Betfair Exchange and Matchbook (Betfair Exchange is apparently higher volume, so that's why I'm reporting on their numbers).  By peer-to-peer, I just mean people betting against other bettors, rather than having bookies set the price.  Listing the #s in decimal format, it currently shows, for example, Trump at "2.2", which means 1/2.2 = 45.5% in probability terms.

[yankeesfan]

Trump crashing hard on the Iowa caucus PredictIt

Trump 51
Cruz 51

[Eraserhead]

What are the IA and NH numbers looking like now?

[Mr. Morden]

What are the IA and NH numbers looking like now?

Iowa

Dems
Clinton 66.7
Sanders 38.2

GOP
Trump 60.2
Cruz 42.7

New Hampshire

Dems
Sanders 78.7
Clinton 26.7

GOP
Trump 73.5
Rubio 10.9
Kasich 9.1
Cruz 8.3
Bush 4.0

[Mr. Morden]

Up: Trump
Down: Rubio

Democrats
Clinton 80.0
Sanders 19.3
Biden 2.5

Republicans
Trump 47.6
Rubio 30.0
Cruz 11.9
Bush 10.7
Christie 1.8
Kasich 1.5
Romney 1.0
Ryan 1.0
Carson 0.7
Paul 0.4

Winning Individual
Clinton 53.2
Trump 19.6
Rubio 11.4
Sanders 9.1
Bush 4.0
Cruz 3.8

[Mr. Morden]

We’ve reached a milestone today in that we finally have Trump breaking 50 on the GOP side.  But Rubio’s gained a bit as well, and their gains have largely come at the expense of Cruz, who’s now down to a tie with Bush for 3rd place.

Up: Trump, Rubio
Down: Cruz

Democrats
Clinton 80.0
Sanders 20.0
Biden 4.3

Republicans
Trump 50.3
Rubio 31.8
Bush 10.0
Cruz 10.0
Christie 1.8
Kasich 1.5
Carson 1.1
Romney 0.8
Ryan 0.8
Paul 0.4

Iowa Dems
Clinton 69.0
Sanders 33.3

Iowa GOP
Trump 66.7
Cruz 39.1
Rubio 6.7

[The Other Castro]

It's funny how Clinton/Sanders almost perfectly match up with Trump/Cruz in terms of Iowa odds, while Clinton and Cruz would do best with lower turnout while Trump and Sanders would do best with higher turnout.

[Eraserhead]

Look for a big Sanders surge on Monday even if he loses due to a lot early "OMG Turnout is #YUGE" reports.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump and Rubio gain at the expense of Bush and Cruz (with the latter two still tied for third, but at a lower number).  Kasich passes Christie for 5th place.

Democrats
Clinton 80.6
Sanders 18.3
Biden 3.7

Republicans
Trump 51.3
Rubio 32.9
Bush 9.1
Cruz 9.1
Kasich 1.9
Christie 1.6
Carson 0.9
Romney 0.9
Ryan 0.8
Paul 0.2

Iowa Dems
Clinton 76.9
Sanders 28.2

Iowa GOP
Trump 68.5
Cruz 36.0
Rubio 6.7

[IceSpear]

How is Clinton only 4 higher on the nomination than in Iowa?

[PresidentTRUMP]

Man, with Sanders being listed as such an underdog in Iowa I would bet a ton on him if i was a betting man.

I think Iowa will be very tight.

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton gains as Sanders drops a bit.  On the GOP side, Rubio surges back up to 35.  Christie retakes 5th place from Kasich.

Democrats
Clinton 82.6
Sanders 17.4
Biden 3.3

Republicans
Trump 50.8
Rubio 35.6
Cruz 9.5
Bush 8.4
Christie 1.9
Kasich 1.8
Romney 0.9
Carson 0.7
Ryan 0.5
Paul 0.2

Iowa Dems
Clinton 79.4
Sanders 30.0

Iowa GOP
Trump 66.2
Cruz 30.8
Rubio 7.7

[mencken]

Kind of in a state of flux at the moment, but it looks something like Rubio ~50, Trump ~25, Cruz ~15, Jeb! ~5

[IceSpear]

As expected, Trump is tanking and Rubio is surging. Despite exceeding expectations and WINNING, Cruz only gets a small bump. lol

[Holmes]

Overreacting over one state.