latest Betfair odds

[Eraserhead]

It's long overdue but is there any particular reason why the Trump surge is happening now?

[Phony Moderate]

It's long overdue but is there any particular reason why the Trump surge is happening now?

Lots of punters are making the following new year's resolution: No longer be a delusional c**t.

[Torie]

It's long overdue but is there any particular reason why the Trump surge is happening now?

Maybe his announced ad blitz?

[The Mikado]

Rubio at 35%? I'm still unsure exactly how this Rubio route works, especially since even if he pulls off the surprise NH win (doubtful) he gets demolished on Super Tuesday, killing any momentum he might get.

[yankeesfan]

I think it's because a lot of people go home for the holidays and see their delusional Trump-supporting relatives and are unable to sway their views because Trump "tells it like it is".  They go back home disheartened and place wagers on BetFair.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump’s stay in second place proves to be short lived, as he eases back to third.

Republican nomination
Rubio 34.7
Cruz 26.6
Trump 25.4
Bush 11.6
Christie 6.5
Romney 0.9
Carson 0.6
Kasich 0.4
Ryan 0.4
Paul 0.2

Winning Individual
Clinton 57.8
Rubio 14.9
Trump 11.1
Cruz 9.1
Bush 4.2

[Suburbia]

Romney is 0.9. Wow. Happy 2016!!!

[Mr. Morden]

Trump’s surge from last week now going in reverse, as he drops below 25.

Rubio 35.2
Cruz 26.6
Trump 24.2
Bush 11.1
Christie 6.5
Carson 0.5
Romney 0.4
Kasich 0.4
Ryan 0.3
Huckabee 0.3

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3142333#msg3142333

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Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1383990#msg1383990

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[Zanas]

So from now on, both last races had their eventual winner on top at this point. Of course this year's a bit more impredictable.

[Mr. Morden]

So from now on, both last races had their eventual winner on top at this point. Of course this year's a bit more impredictable.

Of course, both four years ago and eight years ago, Iowa had already happened.  I guess if you want an equivalent point in time from those cycles, go back to one of the "four years ago" quotes I made about four weeks ago.

[Seneca]

So from now on, both last races had their eventual winner on top at this point. Of course this year's a bit more impredictable.

Of course, both four years ago and eight years ago, Iowa had already happened.  I guess if you want an equivalent point in time from those cycles, go back to one of the "four years ago" quotes I made about four weeks ago.

In that case, wouldn't it make sense to quote numbers from 4 years and a month ago?

[Mr. Morden]

So from now on, both last races had their eventual winner on top at this point. Of course this year's a bit more impredictable.

Of course, both four years ago and eight years ago, Iowa had already happened.  I guess if you want an equivalent point in time from those cycles, go back to one of the "four years ago" quotes I made about four weeks ago.

In that case, wouldn't it make sense to quote numbers from 4 years and a month ago?

Well, not every primary has moved a month since then.  For example, Super Tuesday was also in the first week of March last time.  I guess you can always go back to the posts I made in the thread from a month ago to get the comparison relative to Iowa.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump is narrowing the gap with Cruz again...

Democrats
Clinton 90.9
Sanders 11.4

Republicans
Rubio 34.5
Cruz 26.6
Trump 26.0
Bush 11.4
Christie 6.8
Romney 0.8
Carson 0.5
Kasich 0.4
Ryan 0.3
Huckabee 0.3

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3144421#msg3144421

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Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1385932#msg1385932

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[Mr. Morden]

Rubio slipping…

Rubio 33.4
Cruz 26.3
Trump 26.0
Bush 11.1
Christie 6.4
Romney 1.2
Carson 0.5
Ryan 0.3
Kasich 0.3
Huckabee 0.2

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3148597#msg3148597

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Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1386750#msg1386750

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[Mr. Morden]

Also...

Iowa
Cruz 79.4
Trump 20.8

New Hampshire
Trump 48.1
Rubio 20.4
Christie 19.2

[Eraserhead]

Sanders is back in double digits?

[Mr. Morden]

Sanders is back in double digits?

Yeah.  For the last few days at least, he's been trading just above 10 on all the markets.

[Maybe people are worried that Trump's attacks on Bill's fidelity will sink Hillary, lol.]

[Torie]

Stu Rothenberg has it about right I think. Trump has a 20% chance, Rubio and Cruz between them have a 75% chance, and everybody else collectively has a 5% chance. And I don't blame Rothenberg for dodging the issue of dividing the 75% between Cruz and Rubio. I certainly would not be so foolish as to do that in public. That one is really about just throwing a dart at the wall at the moment.

[yankeesfan]

Trump surge on PredictIt

Trump 35%
Rubio 31%
Cruz 27%

[Holmes]

Stu Rothenberg has it about right I think. Trump has a 20% chance, Rubio and Cruz between them have a 75% chance, and everybody else collectively has a 5% chance. And I don't blame Rothenberg for dodging the issue of dividing the 75% between Cruz and Rubio. I certainly would not be so foolish as to do that in public. That one is really about just throwing a dart at the wall at the moment.

Stu Rothenberg doesn't have it right. You just hope he does.

[Torie]

Stu Rothenberg has it about right I think. Trump has a 20% chance, Rubio and Cruz between them have a 75% chance, and everybody else collectively has a 5% chance. And I don't blame Rothenberg for dodging the issue of dividing the 75% between Cruz and Rubio. I certainly would not be so foolish as to do that in public. That one is really about just throwing a dart at the wall at the moment.

Stu Rothenberg doesn't have it right. You just hope he does.

I hardly consider such a high percentage chance for Cruz, to be a cause of celebration for the coming Jubilee. It's more like a dangerous voyage between the Scylla and Charybdis in stormy waters, with a shark nearby with a comb over hairdo who claims he always gets his prey because he's a winner, and fantastic at everything he does, ever ready, if the boat capsizes, to consume those on board. In fact, he's now trying to give commands to Zeus to strike lightening at the boat to boot, so as to set it afire, to be doused only when it slips below the waves, the better to increase the odds that he will be able to satiate his hunger. Nobody but a fool would consider the shark dumb, because he's not. He's dangerous, but not dumb.

[Eraserhead]

Trump's odds of getting the nomination are a lot higher than 20%. Come on. The guy is still leading almost everywhere and it's January!

[Holmes]

Trump's odds of getting the nomination are a lot higher than 20%. Come on. The guy is still leading almost everywhere and it's January!

No because Rubio is the establishment candidate and stuff

[Mr. Morden]

Trump tied with Cruz for second place…

Democrats
Clinton 89.3
Sanders 12.2

Republicans
Rubio 34.7
Cruz 26.6
Trump 26.6
Bush 12.2
Christie 5.8
Romney 0.7
Ryan 0.4
Kasich 0.4
Carson 0.3
Huckabee 0.2

Winning Individual
Clinton 55.9
Rubio 14.9
Trump 11.9
Cruz 9.1
Bush 5.0
Sanders 5.0

[TarHeelDem]

Cannot believe Rubio is still that high.