latest Betfair odds

[Holmes]

Cannot believe Rubio is still that high.

muh establishment

[Mr. Morden]

Trump now alone in second place.

Democrats
Clinton 88.5
Sanders 12.2

Republicans
Rubio 34.7
Trump 27.3
Cruz 26.0
Bush 12.2
Christie 4.8
Romney 1.0
Huckabee 0.8
Carson 0.5
Ryan 0.4
Kasich 0.4

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3150582#msg3150582

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Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1389597#msg1389597

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[Eraserhead]

Damn, Edwards was doing as poorly as O'Malley?

Ah, I guess that was after he lost in Iowa...

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio and Cruz are both slipping...

Rubio 33.4
Trump 28.0
Cruz 24.8
Bush 12.2
Christie 5.0
Huckabee 0.8
Romney 0.8
Carson 0.5
Ryan 0.4
Kasich 0.4

[Lurker]

Ok, this is just getting silly. 12,2% chance of Jeb winning the primary?! We are in the middle of January and he's averaging less than 4% in the national polls.

Why are they giving him such a high chance?

 

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Trump takes a commanding lead on PredictIt

Trump 40
Rubio 31
Cruz 26
Bush 12
Christie 5
Kasich 3

[The Other Castro]

Trump rising I understand, but I don't get why Rubio is going back up and Cruz is falling.

[Torie]

Trump rising I understand, but I don't get why Rubio is going back up and Cruz is falling.

Probably the birther thing. It's gotten him off message, and created uncertainty.

[Eraserhead]

Ok, this is just getting silly. 12,2% chance of Jeb winning the primary?! We are in the middle of January and he's averaging less than 4% in the national polls.

Why are they giving him such a high chance?

 

They must think that the party bosses will give it to him at a brokered convention. There can be no other explanation at this point.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump has been surging like mad the past couple of days, and just now made it up to 35, now ahead of Rubio, and in the lead.  Rubio hasn’t actually dropped that much in the past 48 hours though.  Instead, the biggest loser from Trump’s gains is actually Cruz.

On the Democratic side, big gains for Sanders and big drop for Clinton.  Of course, Clinton is still way ahead.

Up: Sanders, Trump
Down: Clinton, Cruz, Bush

Democrats
Clinton 80.6
Sanders 18.6
O’Malley 1.2

Republicans
Trump 35.0
Rubio 32.9
Cruz 23.1
Bush 11.1
Christie 4.5
Paul 0.8
Romney 0.7
Kasich 0.5
Carson 0.4
Ryan 0.4

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3153122#msg3153122

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Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1393769#msg1393769

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[Lord of the Dome]

Wait what? Maybe I haven't been paying close enough attention lately but this feels like a massive surge that Trumps having right now. Does the birther stuff really justify Trump gaining exclusively at Cruz's expense.

[Mr. Morden]

Wait what? Maybe I haven't been paying close enough attention lately but this feels like a massive surge that Trumps having right now. Does the birther stuff really justify Trump gaining exclusively at Cruz's expense.

I think it's not just the birther stuff, but Cruz losing ground in the Iowa polls.  Anyway, things are rather volatile at the moment, and I happened to post my update at the apex of Trump's spike.  More recent update:

Trump 33.9
Rubio 32.9
Cruz 23.6

[Ljube]

Wait what? Maybe I haven't been paying close enough attention lately but this feels like a massive surge that Trumps having right now. Does the birther stuff really justify Trump gaining exclusively at Cruz's expense.

I think it's not just the birther stuff, but Cruz losing ground in the Iowa polls.  Anyway, things are rather volatile at the moment, and I happened to post my update at the apex of Trump's spike.  More recent update:

Trump 33.9
Rubio 32.9
Cruz 23.6

It's the birther stuff. And Cruz is going one way - down.

[Phony Moderate]

Perhaps there has been a turn-of-the-year effect over the past 12 days? Punters paying more attention to the race and the polls and seeing that TRUMP does in fact probably have the best chance of any single candidate.

[jimrtex]

Perhaps there has been a turn-of-the-year effect over the past 12 days? Punters paying more attention to the race and the polls and seeing that TRUMP does in fact probably have the best chance of any single candidate.

Who participates on Betfair?

Is it ordinary bettors, who will bet on anything. Or are there a large share of participants who see this as participating in  the electoral process? Where are the bettors from?

[The Other Castro]

On PredictIt, Sanders has surged while Clinton has fallen over the past few days.
01/09/16: Clinton 78%, Sanders 21%
01/13/16: Clinton 65-67%, Sanders 33-37%

[Mr. Morden]

Final pre-debate update: Cruz continues to crash, and Trump is now in second place on winning individual.

Democrats
Clinton 82.0
Sanders 19.0

Republicans
Trump 33.4
Rubio 32.9
Cruz 21.7
Bush 11.1
Christie 4.5
Romney 0.8
Ryan 0.7
Kasich 0.4
Carson 0.3
Paul 0.2

Winning Individual
Clinton 52.9
Trump 14.9
Rubio 14.1
Sanders 10.0
Cruz 6.2

[Mr. Morden]

Post-debate update: The GOP prices are jumping around like mad right now.  At the moment, Trump, Rubio and Cruz have all gained since their pre-debate prices (Trump gaining the most), which should be impossible, since there’s no one else dropping to offset the price.  I mean, Bush has dropped a little, but not much.  Right now, the top four on the GOP alone add up to more than 100.  The Iowa and New Hampshire markets add up to more than 100 for both parties.

Democrats
Clinton 82.0
Sanders 19.3

Republicans
Trump 36.1
Rubio 33.9
Cruz 22.6
Bush 10.7
Christie 4.5
Romney 0.8
Ryan 0.6
Kasich 0.5
Paul 0.4
Carson 0.3

Iowa
Dems
Clinton 63.7
Sanders 41.7

GOP
Cruz 62.1
Trump 33.6
Rubio 8.0

New Hampshire
Dems
Sanders 69.0
Clinton 40.0

GOP
Trump 61.3
Rubio 20.8
Cruz 11.9
Kasich 10.9
Christie 10.0

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Post-debate update: The GOP prices are jumping around like mad right now.  At the moment, Trump, Rubio and Cruz have all gained since their pre-debate prices (Trump gaining the most), which should be impossible, since there’s no one else dropping to offset the price.

Could the cheaper contracts be inflated by speculators hoping to win big?

[Mr. Morden]

Last update before the Democratic debate: Trump keeps surging, while Rubio and Cruz drop below pre-debate levels.

Up: Trump
Down: Sanders, Rubio, Cruz

Democrats
Clinton 82.6
Sanders 16.8

Republicans
Trump 37.5
Rubio 31.0
Cruz 20.0
Bush 10.7
Christie 3.7
Romney 0.6
Kasich 0.5
Ryan 0.4
Carson 0.3
Paul 0.3

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Rubio crashes down to 3rd on PredictIt!

TRUMP 44 (+4!)
Canadian 24
Homosexual 23 (-5!)
Low-Energy 8
Christie 4
Paul 3
Kasich 2 (-1)
Carson 1

Sandernistas are still not buying that NBC poll though LOL
Clinton 70
Bernie 33
Biden 5 (LOL!)

GE: TRUMP now in 2nd!
Hillary 44
TRUMP 25
Bernie 24
Rubio 12
Cruz 11

[Mr. Morden]

Post-debate update: Sanders gains a little, but not really much movement on the Dem. side.  On the GOP side, Rubio has a bit of a rebound.

Democrats
Clinton 82.6
Sanders 17.4

Republicans
Trump 38.0
Rubio 32.9
Cruz 20.4
Bush 10.5
Christie 4.5
Kasich 0.5
Romney 0.5
Ryan 0.4
Carson 0.3
Paul 0.2

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3159553#msg3159553

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1398893#msg1398893

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[mencken]

Bush and Rubio both surging.  Trump gets big announcement bump...

Democrats
Clinton 80.6
Sanders 10.0
O'Malley 7.4
Biden 6.4
Warren 6.0

Up: Bush, Rubio, Trump, Kasich, Graham, Jindal
Down: Walker, Paul

Republicans
Bush 36.1
Rubio 30.5
Walker 19.6
Paul 8.1
Trump 6.5
Kasich 5.3
Huckabee 4.8
Graham 4.2
Jindal 3.4
Cruz 3.3
Carson 2.9
Perry 2.6

Four years ago today on Intrade:

Romney 33.7
Perry 14.0
Pawlenty 13.5
Huntsman 12.1
Bachmann 8.2
Palin 4.5
Cain 3.4
Paul 2.2
Giuliani 1.9
Gingrich 1.5
Ryan 1.5
Christie 1.4
Santorum 0.7
Pataki 0.5

My how things have changed.

[Zanas]

Canadian 24
Homosexual 23 (-5!)

That's very offensive to Canadians and homosexuals.

[Mr. Morden]

Lots of movement in the last two days.  Trump surges some more, and breaks 40.  Both Rubio and Cruz drop, with Rubio now at 30, and Cruz below 20.  Kasich’s share price more than triples, presumably because of ARG(!).  On the Dem. side, O’Malley’s now in fifth place, trailing both Biden and Warren.

Up: Biden, Trump, Kasich
Down: Clinton, Rubio, Cruz

Democrats
Clinton 81.3
Sanders 16.8
Biden 3.3
Warren 1.1
O’Malley 1.0

Republicans
Trump 40.7
Rubio 30.0
Cruz 19.0
Bush 10.9
Christie 3.8
Kasich 1.8
Ryan 0.4
Romney 0.4
Carson 0.3
Paul 0.2

Iowa

Dems
Clinton 60.6
Sanders 38.2

GOP
Cruz 57.8
Trump 43.1

New Hampshire

Dems
Sanders 74.1
Clinton 32.3

GOP
Trump 70.9
Kasich 18.5
Rubio 13.5
Cruz 11.9