Poll Results of Early Voters thread
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 21, 2024, 03:02:56 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  Poll Results of Early Voters thread
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5
Author Topic: Poll Results of Early Voters thread  (Read 8095 times)
Ozymandias
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 470


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 26, 2016, 04:16:26 PM »
« edited: November 08, 2016, 04:31:28 AM by Ozymandias »

Now that a significant chunk of the early voting is in, I'd like to devote a thread to poll results of voters who have already voted.

Here are the ones I know of so far:

ARIZONA

Clinton - 52
Trump - 42

Among 40% of early voters in Monmouth poll:

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_AZ_102516/

FLORIDA

Clinton - 54
Trump - 41

Among 26% of early voters in FAU poll:

http://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepipolls/index.aspx#.WBEZ1-ArLct

NEVADA

Clinton - 60
Trump - 35

Among 13% of early voters in NBC/WSJ/Marist poll:

Mark Murray ‏@mmurraypolitics  2m2 minutes ago
In NV, Clinton leads Trump 60%-35% among those who have *already* voted (13% of likely voters) -- per new NBC/WSJ/Marist poll of NV

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/NVpolls/NV161020/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_Nevada%20Tables%20of%20Likely%20Voters_October%202016.pdf#page=3

NORTH CAROLINA

Clinton - 59
Trump - 36

Among 18% of anticipated electorate (800K/4.425M) based on modeling of NYT/Upshot poll:

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  2m2 minutes ago Washington, DC
Clinton leads 59-36 in the North Carolina early vote with more than 800k votes cast. We'll be tracking it daily

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html


Any others that I'm missing?
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2016, 04:18:00 PM »

Early voting tends to skew pretty Dem. North Carolina should be concerning to Trump though.
Logged
Ozymandias
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 470


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2016, 04:20:12 PM »

Early voting tends to skew pretty Dem. North Carolina should be concerning to Trump though.

Early in-person viewing skes Dem, but these numbers include Absentee/Mail-in votes, which skews Rep
Logged
Ozymandias
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 470


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2016, 04:20:53 PM »

What are the Senate race numbers in NV?

I didn't see that info in the poll details.
Logged
windjammer
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,512
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2016, 04:21:42 PM »

What matters is how it evolved since the last election.
Logged
Ozymandias
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 470


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 26, 2016, 09:11:45 PM »

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  6m6 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
262 of the 1574 Upshot/Siena respondents in NC have now voted early. [16.6%]
Clinton led among them 57-35%.
Logged
ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,603
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 26, 2016, 09:19:12 PM »

in some states, early voting is so popular and important now that you would need to increase your election day game big time to "counter" it.
Logged
Ozymandias
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 470


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 27, 2016, 02:07:49 PM »

From latest Quinnipiac poll: https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2397

"Clinton leads by margins of 6 to 34 percentage points among likely voters who already have cast ballots in Georgia, Iowa and North Carolina, which allow early voting...

Clinton leads 48 - 42 percent among Georgia early voters...

Clinton leads 61 - 27 percent among Iowa likely voters who have cast ballots...

North Carolina likely voters who cast early ballots go 62 - 34 percent for Clinton."



Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,650


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 27, 2016, 02:25:27 PM »

From latest Quinnipiac poll: https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2397

"Clinton leads by margins of 6 to 34 percentage points among likely voters who already have cast ballots in Georgia, Iowa and North Carolina, which allow early voting...

Clinton leads 48 - 42 percent among Georgia early voters...

Clinton leads 61 - 27 percent among Iowa likely voters who have cast ballots...

North Carolina likely voters who cast early ballots go 62 - 34 percent for Clinton."





Those are all impressive for Clinton, but the one that really shocks me is Iowa.
Logged
dspNY
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,846
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 27, 2016, 03:37:41 PM »

From latest Quinnipiac poll: https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2397

"Clinton leads by margins of 6 to 34 percentage points among likely voters who already have cast ballots in Georgia, Iowa and North Carolina, which allow early voting...

Clinton leads 48 - 42 percent among Georgia early voters...

Clinton leads 61 - 27 percent among Iowa likely voters who have cast ballots...

North Carolina likely voters who cast early ballots go 62 - 34 percent for Clinton."





That's the third NC estimate that is HEAVILY Clinton, more heavily than anything Obama pulled in the early vote in his two campaigns
Logged
dspNY
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,846
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 27, 2016, 03:39:55 PM »

Additionally, to get these types of splits, independents must be breaking very hard for Clinton because these are far ahead of the D/R splits in all three states
Logged
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,687
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 27, 2016, 03:59:37 PM »

10% Third Party in GA among early vote (100-48-42), and 12% Third party in IA among early vote (100-61-27) has to be encouraging for Johnson hitting 5% nationally.
Logged
Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 27, 2016, 04:03:41 PM »

In the past day on the betting markets:

NC: Clinton +3.1%
FL: Clinton -2.1%
NV: Clinton -4.6%
AZ: Clinton +2.2%, now favorite
IA: Trump -0.7%
GA: Trump -1.3%

Of course, there's lots of information feeding this market, but I wonder if there is a reaction to this baked in.
Logged
Ozymandias
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 470


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 28, 2016, 11:41:33 AM »

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  2h2 hours ago Manhattan, NY
Clinton has an 18 point lead in NC early voting with more than 1 million votes cast, according to our estimates
Logged
Ozymandias
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 470


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2016, 12:14:30 PM »

"Clinton enjoys solid lead in early voting: Reuters/Ipsos poll"

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN12T0J6

"With 11 days to go before the U.S. presidential election, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump by 15 percentage points among early voters surveyed in the past two weeks, according to the Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project."

"Clintonís lead among early voters is similar to the lead enjoyed by President Barack Obama over Republican Mitt Romney at this point of the 2012 race"

"In Ohio, Clinton led Trump by double digits among early voters. The projectís broader polling suggests the state is deadlocked between the two candidates."

"In Arizona, Clinton also was solidly ahead among early voters. In the past month, Arizona has gradually moved from a solid Trump state to a marginal Clinton state, although it is still too close to call, according to the project results."

"Even in Texas, where Trump enjoys a sizable lead, Clinton has a double-digit edge among early voters, according to project results."
Logged
Hammy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,708
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 29, 2016, 12:19:27 PM »

Is there anywhere we can compare early voting this year and 2012 between the states? That's probably the best way to make a guess based on early voting.
Logged
dspNY
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,846
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 29, 2016, 12:25:18 PM »

"Clinton enjoys solid lead in early voting: Reuters/Ipsos poll"

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN12T0J6

"With 11 days to go before the U.S. presidential election, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump by 15 percentage points among early voters surveyed in the past two weeks, according to the Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project."

"Clintonís lead among early voters is similar to the lead enjoyed by President Barack Obama over Republican Mitt Romney at this point of the 2012 race"

"In Ohio, Clinton led Trump by double digits among early voters. The projectís broader polling suggests the state is deadlocked between the two candidates."

"In Arizona, Clinton also was solidly ahead among early voters. In the past month, Arizona has gradually moved from a solid Trump state to a marginal Clinton state, although it is still too close to call, according to the project results."

"Even in Texas, where Trump enjoys a sizable lead, Clinton has a double-digit edge among early voters, according to project results."

The national early vote margin according to party ID is 7.5% yet Clinton leads by 15. This is yet another piece of evidence that the current trends still exist:

1. Independents are breaking to Clinton
2. More Republicans are defecting to Clinton than Democrats defecting to Trump
Logged
Rand
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,133
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 29, 2016, 12:26:29 PM »

Great numbers!
Logged
Ozymandias
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 470


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 29, 2016, 12:45:32 PM »
« Edited: October 29, 2016, 01:05:30 PM by Ozymandias »

Clinton leads 61 - 27 percent among Iowa likely voters who have cast ballots...

Those are all impressive for Clinton, but the one that really shocks me is Iowa.

Yeah, that greatly surprised me as well, though it's hard to know how meaningful this result is since Quinnipiac didn't report the percentage of early voters they surveyed in each state.

Still, this may explain why the Clinton campaign is still contesting Iowa so vigorously...
Logged
Devout Centrist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,121
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 29, 2016, 12:56:36 PM »

Clinton leads 61 - 27 percent among Iowa likely voters who have cast ballots...

Those are all impressive for Clinton, but the one that really shocks me is Iowa.

Yeah, that greatly surprised me as well, though it's hard to know how meaningful this result since Quinnipiac didn't report the percentage of early voters in each state.

Still, this may explain why the Clinton campaign is still contesting Iowa so vigorously...

Iowa will go Democratic, mark my words. Trump keeps getting overestimated there.
Logged
Ozymandias
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 470


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 29, 2016, 03:39:46 PM »
« Edited: October 29, 2016, 04:16:49 PM by Ozymandias »

FLORIDA

Early voter crosstabs from latest Emerson FL poll, where 257 of 500 LV (51%) have already voted early (direct link to spreadsheet: http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_7c02a7a6c87348b2a4f30b6d468eb94f.xlsx?dn=ECP_FL_10.27.xlsx):

Clinton 57%
Trump 42%
Johnson 0.4%
Stein 0.4%

Murphy 58%
Rubio 37%
Other 4.7%

Party ID
Democrat 42%
Republican 26%
Independent 32%

Wow, did not expect Rubio to be running behind Trump in the Early vote!
Logged
swf541
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,916


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 29, 2016, 03:42:04 PM »

FLORIDA

Early voter crosstabs from latest Emerson FL poll,  where 257 of 500 LV (51.5%) have already voted early (direct link to spreadsheet: http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_7c02a7a6c87348b2a4f30b6d468eb94f.xlsx?dn=ECP_FL_10.27.xlsx):

Clinton 57%
Trump 42%
Johnson 0.4%
Stein 0.4%

Murphy 58%
Rubio 37%
Other 4.7%

Party ID
Democrat 42%
Republican 26%
Independent 32%

Wow, did not expect Rubio to be running behind Trump in the Early vote!

I know its Emerson, but those results are surprising....
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,650


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 29, 2016, 03:44:50 PM »

FLORIDA

Early voter crosstabs from latest Emerson FL poll,  where 257 of 500 LV (51.5%) have already voted early (direct link to spreadsheet: http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_7c02a7a6c87348b2a4f30b6d468eb94f.xlsx?dn=ECP_FL_10.27.xlsx):

Clinton 57%
Trump 42%
Johnson 0.4%
Stein 0.4%

Murphy 58%
Rubio 37%
Other 4.7%

Party ID
Democrat 42%
Republican 26%
Independent 32%

Wow, did not expect Rubio to be running behind Trump in the Early vote!

Interesting, but with a subsample of 257 the MoE is over 6%, so take it with a grain of salt.
Logged
Ozymandias
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 470


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 29, 2016, 03:48:34 PM »
« Edited: October 29, 2016, 04:10:06 PM by Ozymandias »

NORTH CAROLINA

Early voter crosstabs from latest Emerson NC poll, where 209 of 650 LV (32%) have already voted early (direct link to spreadsheet: http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_85d96154894548168e5f6b011f117e28.xlsx?dn=ECP_NC_10.27.xlsx):

Clinton 59%
Trump 37%
Johnson 0.5%

Ross 56%
Burr 41%
Other 2%

Party ID
Democrat 48%
Republican 22%
Independent 29%
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 29, 2016, 03:51:03 PM »

gonna go ahead and say that if Emerson is really showing Clinton running behind Murphy, that Emerson is trash.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.047 seconds with 12 queries.