Poll Results of Early Voters thread

[Ozymandias]

Now that a significant chunk of the early voting is in, I'd like to devote a thread to poll results of voters who have already voted.

Here are the ones I know of so far:

ARIZONA

Clinton - 52
Trump - 42

Among 40% of early voters in Monmouth poll:

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_AZ_102516/

FLORIDA

Clinton - 54
Trump - 41

Among 26% of early voters in FAU poll:

http://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepipolls/index.aspx#.WBEZ1-ArLct

NEVADA

Clinton - 60
Trump - 35

Among 13% of early voters in NBC/WSJ/Marist poll:

Mark Murray ‏@mmurraypolitics  2m2 minutes ago
In NV, Clinton leads Trump 60%-35% among those who have *already* voted (13% of likely voters) -- per new NBC/WSJ/Marist poll of NV

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/NVpolls/NV161020/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_Nevada%20Tables%20of%20Likely%20Voters_October%202016.pdf#page=3

NORTH CAROLINA

Clinton - 59
Trump - 36

Among 18% of anticipated electorate (800K/4.425M) based on modeling of NYT/Upshot poll:

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  2m2 minutes ago Washington, DC
Clinton leads 59-36 in the North Carolina early vote with more than 800k votes cast. We'll be tracking it daily

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html


Any others that I'm missing?

[ElectionsGuy]

Early voting tends to skew pretty Dem. North Carolina should be concerning to Trump though.

[Ozymandias]

Early voting tends to skew pretty Dem. North Carolina should be concerning to Trump though.

Early in-person viewing skes Dem, but these numbers include Absentee/Mail-in votes, which skews Rep

[Ozymandias]

What are the Senate race numbers in NV?

I didn't see that info in the poll details.

[windjammer]

What matters is how it evolved since the last election.

[Ozymandias]

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  6m6 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
262 of the 1574 Upshot/Siena respondents in NC have now voted early. [16.6%]
Clinton led among them 57-35%.

[ApatheticAustrian]

in some states, early voting is so popular and important now that you would need to increase your election day game big time to "counter" it.

[Ozymandias]

From latest Quinnipiac poll: https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2397

"Clinton leads by margins of 6 to 34 percentage points among likely voters who already have cast ballots in Georgia, Iowa and North Carolina, which allow early voting...

Clinton leads 48 - 42 percent among Georgia early voters...

Clinton leads 61 - 27 percent among Iowa likely voters who have cast ballots...

North Carolina likely voters who cast early ballots go 62 - 34 percent for Clinton."

[GeorgiaModerate]

From latest Quinnipiac poll: https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2397

"Clinton leads by margins of 6 to 34 percentage points among likely voters who already have cast ballots in Georgia, Iowa and North Carolina, which allow early voting...

Clinton leads 48 - 42 percent among Georgia early voters...

Clinton leads 61 - 27 percent among Iowa likely voters who have cast ballots...

North Carolina likely voters who cast early ballots go 62 - 34 percent for Clinton."

Those are all impressive for Clinton, but the one that really shocks me is Iowa.

[dspNY]

From latest Quinnipiac poll: https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2397

"Clinton leads by margins of 6 to 34 percentage points among likely voters who already have cast ballots in Georgia, Iowa and North Carolina, which allow early voting...

Clinton leads 48 - 42 percent among Georgia early voters...

Clinton leads 61 - 27 percent among Iowa likely voters who have cast ballots...

North Carolina likely voters who cast early ballots go 62 - 34 percent for Clinton."

That's the third NC estimate that is HEAVILY Clinton, more heavily than anything Obama pulled in the early vote in his two campaigns

[dspNY]

Additionally, to get these types of splits, independents must be breaking very hard for Clinton because these are far ahead of the D/R splits in all three states

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

10% Third Party in GA among early vote (100-48-42), and 12% Third party in IA among early vote (100-61-27) has to be encouraging for Johnson hitting 5% nationally.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

In the past day on the betting markets:

NC: Clinton +3.1%
FL: Clinton -2.1%
NV: Clinton -4.6%
AZ: Clinton +2.2%, now favorite
IA: Trump -0.7%
GA: Trump -1.3%

Of course, there's lots of information feeding this market, but I wonder if there is a reaction to this baked in.

[Ozymandias]

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  2h2 hours ago Manhattan, NY
Clinton has an 18 point lead in NC early voting with more than 1 million votes cast, according to our estimates

[Ozymandias]

"Clinton enjoys solid lead in early voting: Reuters/Ipsos poll"

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN12T0J6

"With 11 days to go before the U.S. presidential election, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump by 15 percentage points among early voters surveyed in the past two weeks, according to the Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project."

"Clinton’s lead among early voters is similar to the lead enjoyed by President Barack Obama over Republican Mitt Romney at this point of the 2012 race"

"In Ohio, Clinton led Trump by double digits among early voters. The project’s broader polling suggests the state is deadlocked between the two candidates."

"In Arizona, Clinton also was solidly ahead among early voters. In the past month, Arizona has gradually moved from a solid Trump state to a marginal Clinton state, although it is still too close to call, according to the project results."

"Even in Texas, where Trump enjoys a sizable lead, Clinton has a double-digit edge among early voters, according to project results."

[Hammy]

Is there anywhere we can compare early voting this year and 2012 between the states? That's probably the best way to make a guess based on early voting.

[dspNY]

"Clinton enjoys solid lead in early voting: Reuters/Ipsos poll"

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN12T0J6

"With 11 days to go before the U.S. presidential election, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump by 15 percentage points among early voters surveyed in the past two weeks, according to the Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project."

"Clinton’s lead among early voters is similar to the lead enjoyed by President Barack Obama over Republican Mitt Romney at this point of the 2012 race"

"In Ohio, Clinton led Trump by double digits among early voters. The project’s broader polling suggests the state is deadlocked between the two candidates."

"In Arizona, Clinton also was solidly ahead among early voters. In the past month, Arizona has gradually moved from a solid Trump state to a marginal Clinton state, although it is still too close to call, according to the project results."

"Even in Texas, where Trump enjoys a sizable lead, Clinton has a double-digit edge among early voters, according to project results."

The national early vote margin according to party ID is 7.5% yet Clinton leads by 15. This is yet another piece of evidence that the current trends still exist:

1. Independents are breaking to Clinton
2. More Republicans are defecting to Clinton than Democrats defecting to Trump

[Rand]

Great numbers!

[Ozymandias]

Clinton leads 61 - 27 percent among Iowa likely voters who have cast ballots...

Those are all impressive for Clinton, but the one that really shocks me is Iowa.

Yeah, that greatly surprised me as well, though it's hard to know how meaningful this result is since Quinnipiac didn't report the percentage of early voters they surveyed in each state.

Still, this may explain why the Clinton campaign is still contesting Iowa so vigorously...

[Devout Centrist]

Clinton leads 61 - 27 percent among Iowa likely voters who have cast ballots...

Those are all impressive for Clinton, but the one that really shocks me is Iowa.

Yeah, that greatly surprised me as well, though it's hard to know how meaningful this result since Quinnipiac didn't report the percentage of early voters in each state.

Still, this may explain why the Clinton campaign is still contesting Iowa so vigorously...

Iowa will go Democratic, mark my words. Trump keeps getting overestimated there.

[Ozymandias]

FLORIDA

Early voter crosstabs from latest Emerson FL poll, where 257 of 500 LV (51%) have already voted early (direct link to spreadsheet: http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_7c02a7a6c87348b2a4f30b6d468eb94f.xlsx?dn=ECP_FL_10.27.xlsx):

Clinton 57%
Trump 42%
Johnson 0.4%
Stein 0.4%

Murphy 58%
Rubio 37%
Other 4.7%

Party ID
Democrat 42%
Republican 26%
Independent 32%

Wow, did not expect Rubio to be running behind Trump in the Early vote!

[swf541]

FLORIDA

Early voter crosstabs from latest Emerson FL poll,  where 257 of 500 LV (51.5%) have already voted early (direct link to spreadsheet: http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_7c02a7a6c87348b2a4f30b6d468eb94f.xlsx?dn=ECP_FL_10.27.xlsx):

Clinton 57%
Trump 42%
Johnson 0.4%
Stein 0.4%

Murphy 58%
Rubio 37%
Other 4.7%

Party ID
Democrat 42%
Republican 26%
Independent 32%

Wow, did not expect Rubio to be running behind Trump in the Early vote!

I know its Emerson, but those results are surprising....

[GeorgiaModerate]

FLORIDA

Early voter crosstabs from latest Emerson FL poll,  where 257 of 500 LV (51.5%) have already voted early (direct link to spreadsheet: http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_7c02a7a6c87348b2a4f30b6d468eb94f.xlsx?dn=ECP_FL_10.27.xlsx):

Clinton 57%
Trump 42%
Johnson 0.4%
Stein 0.4%

Murphy 58%
Rubio 37%
Other 4.7%

Party ID
Democrat 42%
Republican 26%
Independent 32%

Wow, did not expect Rubio to be running behind Trump in the Early vote!

Interesting, but with a subsample of 257 the MoE is over 6%, so take it with a grain of salt.

[Ozymandias]

NORTH CAROLINA

Early voter crosstabs from latest Emerson NC poll, where 209 of 650 LV (32%) have already voted early (direct link to spreadsheet: http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_85d96154894548168e5f6b011f117e28.xlsx?dn=ECP_NC_10.27.xlsx):

Clinton 59%
Trump 37%
Johnson 0.5%

Ross 56%
Burr 41%
Other 2%

Party ID
Democrat 48%
Republican 22%
Independent 29%

[Maxwell]

gonna go ahead and say that if Emerson is really showing Clinton running behind Murphy, that Emerson is trash.