Poll Results of Early Voters thread

[win win]

FLORIDA polling of early voting summary

Presented from most-to-least percent of Early Voters (EV), with absolute number of EV (which can be used as a proxy for MOE) in parentheses:

Opinion Savvy: 71% (607 EV)-- Clinton +8

Quinnipiac: 65% (575 EV)-- Clinton +6 (48-42)

YouGov: 63% (748 EV)-- Clinton +10 (51-41)

Opinion Savvy: 55% (333 EV)-- Clinton +9 (53-44)

Emerson: 51% (257 EV)-- Clinton +15 (57-42)

TargetSmart: 43% (311 EV)-- Clinton +18 (55-37)

Quinnipiac: 42% (263 EV)-- Clinton +6 (48-42)

NBC: 36% (356 EV)-- Clinton +17 (54-37)

FAU: 26% (226 EV)-- Clinton +12 (54-41)

Based on the most recent polling, and how well the Dems did in early voting this past weekend, I think it's safe to say that Clinton is heading into election day with almost a 10-point lead among the ~76% of the population that has now voted.

where did you get theses numbers? source?

[Ozymandias]

NORTH CAROLINA polling of early voting summary

Presented from most-to-least percent of Early Voters (EV), with absolute number of EV (which can be used as a proxy for MOE) in parentheses:

Quinnipiac: 67% (583 EV)-- Clinton +12 (52-40)

Siena/NYT: 63% (504 EV)-- Clinton +9 (49-40)

Quinnipiac: 44% (265 EV)-- Clinton +22 (58-36)

Emerson: 32% (209 EV)-- Clinton +22 (59-37)

Siena/NYT: 31% (492 EV)-- Clinton +15 (53-38)

YouGov: 29% (288 EV)-- Clinton +6 (51-45)

Marist/NBC: 29% (295 EV)-- Clinton +28 (61-33)

PPP: 19% (166 EV)-- Clinton +26 (63-37)

Quinnipiac: 15% (105 EV)-- Clinton +28 (62-34)


So much like Florida, Clinton seems to have built a huge lead in the very early voting that seems to have dropped down to high single digits among the ~66% of voters that voted by the end of in-person EV (turnout estimate of 4.7 M taken from Upshot).

[Ozymandias]

where did you get theses numbers? source?

I have separate posts with links for all of these polls earlier in this thread.

[Ozymandias]

COLORADO polling of early voting summary

Presented from most-to-least percent of Early Voters (EV), with absolute number of EV (which can be used as a proxy for MOE) in parentheses:

PPP: 73% (514 EV)-- Clinton +11 (52-41)

Keating: 68% (414 EV)-- Clinton +4 (44-40)

Magellan: 64% (322 EV)-- Clinton +6 (46-40)

Denver Post: 54% (300 EV)-- Clinton +17 (53-36)

YouGov: 28% (279 EV)-- Clinton +18 (55-37)


There's a lot more variance in Clinton's polled EV leads in Colorado (though note that Trump's share is always between 36-41), but I think it's reasonable to assume that Clinton has at least a 6-pt lead among the 77% of the voters who have already voted (based on total 2012 vote).

[Ozymandias]

IOWA polling of early voting summary

Presented from most-to-least percent of Early Voters (EV), with absolute number of EV (which can be used as a proxy for MOE) in parentheses:

Emerson: 37% (262 EV)-- Clinton +23 (57-34)

Selzer: 34% (272 EV)-- Clinton +22 (53-31)

Loras: 26% (131 EV)-- Clinton +28 (57-29)

Quinnipiac: 21% (166 EV)-- Clinton +34 (61-27)


So even though Democratic early vote share is down vs. 2012, and Clinton is behind in most Iowa polls, she actually appears to have at least a 20% lead among the 40% of voters who have already voted  (based on total 2012 vote).