Poll Results of Early Voters thread

[Ozymandias]

Now that a significant chunk of the early voting is in, I'd like to devote a thread to poll results of voters who have already voted.

Here are the ones I know of so far:

ARIZONA

Clinton - 52
Trump - 42

Among 40% of early voters in Monmouth poll:

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_AZ_102516/

FLORIDA

Clinton - 54
Trump - 41

Among 26% of early voters in FAU poll:

http://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepipolls/index.aspx#.WBEZ1-ArLct

NEVADA

Clinton - 60
Trump - 35

Among 13% of early voters in NBC/WSJ/Marist poll:

Mark Murray ‏@mmurraypolitics  2m2 minutes ago
In NV, Clinton leads Trump 60%-35% among those who have *already* voted (13% of likely voters) -- per new NBC/WSJ/Marist poll of NV

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/NVpolls/NV161020/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_Nevada%20Tables%20of%20Likely%20Voters_October%202016.pdf#page=3

NORTH CAROLINA

Clinton - 59
Trump - 36

Among 18% of anticipated electorate (800K/4.425M) based on modeling of NYT/Upshot poll:

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  2m2 minutes ago Washington, DC
Clinton leads 59-36 in the North Carolina early vote with more than 800k votes cast. We'll be tracking it daily

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html


Any others that I'm missing?

[Ozymandias]

Early voting tends to skew pretty Dem. North Carolina should be concerning to Trump though.

Early in-person viewing skes Dem, but these numbers include Absentee/Mail-in votes, which skews Rep

[Ozymandias]

What are the Senate race numbers in NV?

I didn't see that info in the poll details.

[Ozymandias]

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  6m6 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
262 of the 1574 Upshot/Siena respondents in NC have now voted early. [16.6%]
Clinton led among them 57-35%.

[Ozymandias]

From latest Quinnipiac poll: https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2397

"Clinton leads by margins of 6 to 34 percentage points among likely voters who already have cast ballots in Georgia, Iowa and North Carolina, which allow early voting...

Clinton leads 48 - 42 percent among Georgia early voters...

Clinton leads 61 - 27 percent among Iowa likely voters who have cast ballots...

North Carolina likely voters who cast early ballots go 62 - 34 percent for Clinton."

[Ozymandias]

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  2h2 hours ago Manhattan, NY
Clinton has an 18 point lead in NC early voting with more than 1 million votes cast, according to our estimates

[Ozymandias]

"Clinton enjoys solid lead in early voting: Reuters/Ipsos poll"

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN12T0J6

"With 11 days to go before the U.S. presidential election, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump by 15 percentage points among early voters surveyed in the past two weeks, according to the Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project."

"Clinton’s lead among early voters is similar to the lead enjoyed by President Barack Obama over Republican Mitt Romney at this point of the 2012 race"

"In Ohio, Clinton led Trump by double digits among early voters. The project’s broader polling suggests the state is deadlocked between the two candidates."

"In Arizona, Clinton also was solidly ahead among early voters. In the past month, Arizona has gradually moved from a solid Trump state to a marginal Clinton state, although it is still too close to call, according to the project results."

"Even in Texas, where Trump enjoys a sizable lead, Clinton has a double-digit edge among early voters, according to project results."

[Ozymandias]

Clinton leads 61 - 27 percent among Iowa likely voters who have cast ballots...

Those are all impressive for Clinton, but the one that really shocks me is Iowa.

Yeah, that greatly surprised me as well, though it's hard to know how meaningful this result is since Quinnipiac didn't report the percentage of early voters they surveyed in each state.

Still, this may explain why the Clinton campaign is still contesting Iowa so vigorously...

[Ozymandias]

FLORIDA

Early voter crosstabs from latest Emerson FL poll, where 257 of 500 LV (51%) have already voted early (direct link to spreadsheet: http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_7c02a7a6c87348b2a4f30b6d468eb94f.xlsx?dn=ECP_FL_10.27.xlsx):

Clinton 57%
Trump 42%
Johnson 0.4%
Stein 0.4%

Murphy 58%
Rubio 37%
Other 4.7%

Party ID
Democrat 42%
Republican 26%
Independent 32%

Wow, did not expect Rubio to be running behind Trump in the Early vote!

[Ozymandias]

NORTH CAROLINA

Early voter crosstabs from latest Emerson NC poll, where 209 of 650 LV (32%) have already voted early (direct link to spreadsheet: http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_85d96154894548168e5f6b011f117e28.xlsx?dn=ECP_NC_10.27.xlsx):

Clinton 59%
Trump 37%
Johnson 0.5%

Ross 56%
Burr 41%
Other 2%

Party ID
Democrat 48%
Republican 22%
Independent 29%

[Ozymandias]

NEVADA

Early voter crosstabs from latest Emerson NV poll, where 237 of 550 LV (43%) have already voted early (direct link to spreadsheet: http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_6087a7fc8d43488e91a0600e8ee04883.xlsx?dn=ECP_NV_10.27.xlsx):

Clinton 49%
Trump 32%
Johnson 2.5%

Cortez-Mastro 49%
Heck 42%
Other 1.3%

Party ID
Democrat 47%
Republican 33%
Independent 20%

[Ozymandias]

OHIO

Early voter crosstabs from latest Emerson OH poll, where 223 of 800 LV (28%) have already voted early (direct link to spreadsheet: http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_ad398c37ba9347109dc33acfd90bbd48.xlsx?dn=ECP_OH_10.27.xlsx):

Clinton 59%
Trump 35%
Johnson 0%
Stein 0%

Strickland 49%
Portman 39%
Other 2.7%

Party ID
Democrat 48%
Republican 25%
Independent 27%

[Ozymandias]

Perhaps the most interesting result from looking at early voters in these four Emerson polls is how hardly any of them have voted for either Johnson or Stein.

[Ozymandias]

NORTH CAROLINA

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/792545190976323584

Here's the latest NY Times Upshot modeling of NC:

ALREADY VOTED (32.4% of vote): Clinton - 54.6%, Trump - 41.6%

STILL TO VOTE (67.6% of vote): Clinton - 46.7%, Trump - 43.7%

FINAL VOTE: Clinton - 49.3%, Trump - 43.0%

[Ozymandias]

FLORIDA and NORTH CAROLINA

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/polls-clinton-leads-trump-north-carolina-dead-heat-florida-n675246

"Clinton Leads Big Among Early Voters in Both States

The polls - conducted Oct. 25-26 - come as voters are already voting in both states...

Among the 36 percent [356/990] of likely voters in Florida who say they've already voted, Clinton is ahead, 54 percent to 37 percent.

Among those who haven't voted in the Sunshine State, Trump is up, 51 percent to 42 percent.

And Clinton leads by a 61 percent-to-33 percent margin among the 29 percent [295/1018] of North Carolinians who say they've already voted."

[Ozymandias]

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/10/30/key-battlegrounds-tight-clinton-maintains-eight-po/

10/26-10/29

ARIZONA

"In Arizona, 40% have already voted. Among those who have, the race is tied 46% to 46%. By election day in 2012, two-thirds of Arizonans had already voted."

NORTH CAROLINA

"There, the Battleground Tracker estimates 29% have already voted, and these voters tilt towards Clinton by 51% to 45%. It also seems likely that will grow: while 53% of Trump supporters in North Carolina plan to vote in-person on November 8th, 65% of Clinton voters either have already cast their ballots or plan to do so before November 8th."

COLORADO

"In Colorado... according to the Battleground Tracker, 28% have already sent their completed ballots back. Of this group, 55% report voting for Clinton, with only 37% for Trump. Here, Johnson receives only 4% support and Stein 1%."

[Ozymandias]

NORTH CAROLINA

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  4m4 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
We now have 492 poll respondents who have voted early in NC. Clinton leads 53 to 38 percent, Johnson at 4.

According to an early tweet, they've polled 1574 NC voters, so this works out to 31.2% that have voted early.

[Ozymandias]

GEORGIA

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=874ea794-a227-44a0-a81b-bdc09dd92fac&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Of the 30% (~178) of 593 LV who said they voted early:

Trump - 51
Clinton - 45
Johnson - 2

Poll conducted 10/28

SENATE:

Isakson (R) - 50
Barksdale (D) - 44
Buckley (L) - 2


Interestingly, for President there's no significant difference between early vote and overall poll results (Trump +7), but that's not the case for the Senate race, which is Isakson +12

[Ozymandias]

FLORIDA

https://www.scribd.com/document/329698329/TargetSmart-William-Mary-Florida-Poll-of-Early-and-Likely-Voters

Among 311 of 718 (43.3%) of voters known to have voted early,

Clinton - 55
Trump - 37
Johnson - 3
Stein - 3
Other - 2

Note this is very close to 54-37 margin NBC/Marist found for early voters last week, and also consistent with 57-42 spread that Emerson found.

SENATE early voters: Rubio - 48, Murphy - 47, Other - 4

[Ozymandias]

USA

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-rated-honest-contest-stays-dead-heat-poll/story?id=43225421

Of 23 percent who say they’ve already voted...

"Clinton leads among those who say they’ve already voted, 54-41 percent. "

KANSAS

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0e1d48a5-2698-448f-8f7a-fa2c92996543

17% of 693 RV = 118 voters say they've already voted.

"Specifically, Clinton leads Trump 50% to 42% among early voters."

Senate: Moran (R) - 48, Wiesner (D) - 44

NORTH CAROLINA

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/03/upshot/early-vote-in-north-carolina-seems-to-confirm-a-clinton-lead.html

"Our sample of verified North Carolina early voters supported Clinton by a 51-39 percent margin in NC." (https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/793823086676103169)

"In our poll of early voters, Mrs. Clinton has a 49-39 lead among unaffiliated voters who have cast ballots. Mr. Trump has only a 10-point lead, 47 percent to 37 percent, among unaffiliated white voters."

[Ozymandias]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/02/politics/polls-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-florida-pennsylvania-nevada-arizona/index.html

"And voters who say they have already cast ballots in Arizona and Nevada are about evenly split, with a narrow advantage for Clinton, while she holds a wide margin among those who say they have already voted in Florida. "

Will update if/when I find a link to more detailed poll data.

[Ozymandias]

I feel a lot better about the CNN results if that's what they found in early voters. Those numbers are wrong wrong wrong.

The Arizona early voting results are actually consistent with what YouGov found (see upthread), but the Nevada results are much different from both Emerson and NBC/Marist, each of which showed Clinton with big early leads in NV.

[Ozymandias]

Quinnipiac poll: https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2399

FLORIDA: Of the 42% (263/626) of Early Voters, Clinton is ahead 48-42 percent (5.6% MOE).

NORTH CAROLINA: Of the 44% (265/602) of Early Voters, Clinton is ahead 58-36 percent (6.0% MOE).

OHIO: Of the 27% (159/589) of Early Voters, Clinton is ahead 58-33 percent (7.5% MOE).

[Ozymandias]

WISCONSIN

http://law.marquette.edu/poll/

Of the 16% (201/1255) of respondents who said they already voted:

Clinton - 64
Trump - 25
Johnson - 1
Stein - 0
Other - 3

SENATE:

Feingold - 58
Johnson - 29
Other - 5

[Ozymandias]

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  10m10 minutes ago Washington, DC
Upshot/Siena polling of North Carolina early voters who *didn't* vote in 2012 (n=133): Clinton 57, Trump 34

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  52s52 seconds ago Washington, DC
NC early voters who didn't vote in 2012:
White: C 43, T 45 (v. 35-55 among e.v. who vtd in 12)
Nonwhite: C 97, T 2 (v. 90-6 among vt in 12)