Mexico 2006

[ag]

Interestingly, the talking heads on the one channel I have that had them (I don't have cable, so my only option was the broadcast Channel 11, which belongs to the National Politechnical Institute) concluded that the debate was a draw between Calderon and Lopez, w/ Madrazo left on the third spot. If anything, they gave a tiny advantage to Calderon. Frankly, I just don't see how they came to such a conclusion.

[ag]

I must be not understanding smthg. Ok, that Reforma and other calderonista papers declare Calderon the victor I can understand (even though they claim this is the outcome of their polling, this is not the sort of the polling I'd trust). But why don't obradorista papers claim the same for their guy is beyond me. The most they claim - undeniably true - is that Obrador didn't lose and that they failed to land a nockout blow against him. Muy ?straño.

[ag]

First post-debate poll by El Universal shows little movement - at least, it shows my impressions of the debate were wrong. In brackets change from their last poll right before the debate (all technical specs are the same):

If today there was the election for President, whom would you be voting for?

Likely voters:

Calderon 37% (+1)
Lopez Obrador 34% (-2)
Madrazo 22% (-2)
Mercado 6% (+2) !!
Campa 1% (+1)

All registered voters:

Calderon 30% (nil)
Lopez Obrador 28% (nil)
Madrazo 19% (-2)
Other+don't know/no answer 13% (+2)

Independent of your voting intention, which party do you normally cosider yourself an adherent of?

Independent 51% (+3)
PAN 19% (-1)
PRI 16% (-2)
PRD 13% (nil)
Other 1% (nil)

Voting intention of independents

Lopez Obrador 27% (nil)
Calderon 25% (-1)
Madrazo 10% (-1)

Your opinion of the candidates (sum of very good/good)

Calderon 42% (nil)
Lopez Obrador 34% (-3)
Madrazo 27% (-1)
Mercado 25% (-1)
Campa 17% (nil)

Who do you think will win in the presidential election?

Calderon 31% (+1)
Lopez Obrador 29% (+1)
Madrazo 15% (-1)


If today there were elections for the federal House of Deputies, which party would you vote for? All registered voters

PAN 29% (+1)
PRD-PT-Convergencia 21% (-1)
PRI-PVEM 20% (-1)
Others/Don't know/Don't answer 30% (+1)

[jaichind]

If I were ALMO I would want to be slightly behind Calderón in the polls right before the election.  This way on the day of the election, PRI and Patricia Mercado supporters would be forced to vote ALMO to stop PAN, which most of them are more hostile to than PRD. 

[ag]

If I were ALMO I would want to be slightly behind Calderón in the polls right before the election.  This way on the day of the election, PRI and Patricia Mercado supporters would be forced to vote ALMO to stop PAN, which most of them are more hostile to than PRD. 

Actually, the Mercado people are, probably, split fifty-fifty on their second preference: a lot of them don't like Calderon's "rightism" but are outright afraid of Lopez. There is a non-negligible movement among the center-left intellectuals that is supporting Calderon as the least unpleasant of the major candidates. As for the PRI people, while in the absence of PRI most of them would join PRD, those likeliest to defect would probably vote Calderon (PRI still has a substantial "technocratic" wing that desperately hates Lopez and generally likes Calderon, and these people are the least attached to their party), so the PRI defections are as likely to help one as another. Lopez's personal negatives are also higher than those of Calderon, though he is trying to change this right now.

There are two current developments in the campaign, that could come out in strange ways. The first are the Lopez accusations against Calderon's brother-in-law, which he started during the debate. The substance of the allegations is that Zavala (Calderon's in-law) owns a company that didn't pay taxes on 2.5 bln pesos it earned and that it got illegal contracts from Calderon himself when he was in the government.  On closer examination, allegations are pure bull (2.5 bln pesos is the upper estimate of the company's revenues - not profits - over 9 years, and it did pay some taxes, except in certain years when it also didn't pay any dividends, and Zavala doesn't "own the company", but only 18% of its stock, having sold the rest years ago to a foreign company, and 90% of the company's revenue comes from the private sector clients, while another 7% comes from the areas of the government that Calderon never had anything to do with, many of them local governments actually controlled by the PRD, leaving just over 3% for the energy-sector contracts,  most of them assigned before or after Calderon's brief term as the Energy Secretary, and none of them assigned directly by the Energy Secretariat, but rather assigned by entirely autonomous government-owned companies, such as the national oil monopoly Pemex and the regional utility LFyC, only indirectly regulated by the Secretariat, most valuable of these actually assigned through open competitions), but this is, probably irrelevant: the real substance of the allegations is that the Calderon's are rich (though Calderon and his wife are not nearly as rich as her brother and their personal worth - including bank account numbers and ammounts - has been public for nearly a year), and this might be fairly potent. As the allegations gain exposure (PRD is running TVcommercials about them day and night), expect Calderon's negatives to go up.

The second development, though, might work in the opposite direction. It seems there is one area where Calderon is, undisputably, more of a "man of the people" than Lopez Obrador. It turns out, that Tabasco-born and bred Lopez is not a soccer man, but a baseball man, which, at the times like this is a liability: baseball is the dominant game only in a few Mexican states (mainly around the Carribean and in the Northwest, but the latter area is solidly anti-Lopez anyway), and for a vast majority of Mexicans not being a soccer fan is treasonous. While Lopez clearly tries, he is visibly uncomfortable - or, at least, uninterested - watching the game, and he clearly doesn't know that much about it (in contrast, they say, talking baseball is a sure way of making him excited). The other Tabasceño in the race, Madrazo, seems to be a lot more into soccer (or, at least, pretends better), and for the Michoacaner Calderon fútbol comes as naturally as Catholicism. He also managed to get endorsements from many of the national team's top players, who also taped commercials for him. While I don't watch the game on the TV, a friend has told me that during today's US-Czech Republic game Calderon's spots were coming up regularly. Add to this, that the traditional spot of PANista celebrations in Mexico City (the Independence Angel on the Reforma) is also the usual gathering place of celebrating soccer crowds, and the identification becomes fairly clear. So, if Mexicans do reasonably well in the Cup, it might get a crucial percentage point or two into Calderon's column (or the opposite if they bomb).

Still, on ballance, I would reiterate that I would rate Lopez's chances as higher than those of Calderon.

[ag]

Another poll, Milenio this time, claims a three-way split (change from pre-debate):

Lopez Obrador 34.2% (+0.6)
Calderon 31.0% (-2.1%)
Madrazo 29.6% (-0.4%)
Mercado 4.1% (+1.5%)
Campa 1.1% (+0.4%)

As I've said, I am a bit suspicious of their polling - mainly, because of the very unprofessional way it is usually presented (they don't present some important statistics, give the fractions of %, which are clearly meaningless given MOE, and present the same stats in multiple ways, as if the different presentations meant something). They also consistently show Madrazo a lot closer than the other pollsters. Still, in the end there is not that much difference between them and the rest: too close to call.

[jaichind]

Mitofsky poll

Prez

ALMO        35
Calderon   32
Madrazo    28

Congress        House           Senate
 
PRI-PVEM      165-189          43-53
PAN               149-176          36-46
PRD-PT          140-164          32-42
Rest                  5-  12            1-  3


Reforma poll

Prez
ALMO            37
Calderon      35
Madrazo       23


Conclusion: Prez race neck to neck with slight ALMO advantage.  PRI will most likely have the most seats in Congress but has zero chance of winning the Prez seat.  Result, another six years of nothing happening.
Mexico Blosa down from 22000 to below 17000 since May reflects this reality in addition to recent inflation jitters.

[jaichind]

Cárdenas, the son of President Lázaro Cárdenas, who nationalised
oil in 1938 and who was, probably, deprived of the presidency in 1988 by a
computer failure during the vote counting, has yet to endorse any candidate for this election. Ten days ago, Cárdenas met Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who is a prominent member of the Partido de la Revolución Democrática, which Cárdenas founded, but did not endorse him. His meeting with Mercado "to exchange points of view" is a warning to López Obrador that he should not count on Cárdenas's support in the final weeks of the election.  Cárdenas added, mischievously, that he had met most of the candidates in the past few days. As the election reaches its climax, both Mercado and López Obrador are likely to appeal again to Cárdenas for his endorsement, or, at least, the maintenance of his current position of election bystander.

[ag]

Cárdenas, the son of President Lázaro Cárdenas, who nationalised
oil in 1938 and who was, probably, deprived of the presidency in 1988 by a
computer failure during the vote counting, has yet to endorse any candidate for this election. Ten days ago, Cárdenas met Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who is a prominent member of the Partido de la Revolución Democrática, which Cárdenas founded, but did not endorse him. His meeting with Mercado "to exchange points of view" is a warning to López Obrador that he should not count on Cárdenas's support in the final weeks of the election.  Cárdenas added, mischievously, that he had met most of the candidates in the past few days. As the election reaches its climax, both Mercado and López Obrador are likely to appeal again to Cárdenas for his endorsement, or, at least, the maintenance of his current position of election bystander.

Given that the people who switched off the computers in 1988 are all in Lopez Obrador's camp right now, you can figure out why Cardenas doesn't want to  endorse the guy. It is a realignment: PRD has attracted enough of PRI to repell a big chunk of its original self.

[jaichind]

Yeah.  And if ALMO wins he will then try take over the rest of PRI.  If that works he could then kick out Cardenas and then even try to change the constitution to allow for multiple terms and turn PRD into ALMO party.

[ag]

Yeah.  And if ALMO wins he will then try take over the rest of PRI.  If that works he could then kick out Cardenas and then even try to change the constitution to allow for multiple terms and turn PRD into ALMO party.

While PRD is indeed very likely to become the new PRI, multiple terms is another matter.  I do not believe that trying to allow self-reelection is compatible with staying alive in Mexico.  Remeber, this is the holy of holies, they put it on all official letters: "Effective right of election - no reelections!" (¡Sufragio efectivo! ¡No reelección!). It is as if the Pope declared that he was the new Messiah and installed his own golden figure instead of the Crusifix at St. Peter's.  It is as if a US president suggested repealing the Bill of Rights and dissolving both the Congress and the Supreme Court. It is not just the usual Latin American no reelection clause - it is the essence of Mexican polity.  No PRI president dared to do this. When Maximino Avila Camacho wanted to succede his younger brother, he died very quickly. When Miguel Aleman hinted he might succede himself, he was quickly persuaded, that if he wanted to finish his term, he had to give up any thought of the second one. If there is something that would turn the entire Mexican political system against a president, it is a suggestion he might stay longer than 6 years. He'd have to be enormously popular - 60% popularity, probably, won't be nearly enough -  and the Congress and the opposition would have to be enormously reviled to push something like this through.  And even then, such a president would have to be very careful  - I'd suggest he force all his cabinet and all his aids to share his every meal from his own plate. The upheaval involved would be tremendous.

Restoration of the PRI-style rule is quite another matter, though - that's the main danger, in fact. Lopez isvery good at machine-building.

[ag]

Yeah.  And if ALMO wins he will then try take over the rest of PRI.  If that works he could then kick out Cardenas and then even try to change the constitution to allow for multiple terms and turn PRD into ALMO party.

BTW, AMLO is not related to Elmo. He is Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, not Andres Lopez Manuel Obrador.

[ag]

Anyway, the new Reforma poll suggests my intuition was right, and El Universal is an outlier - they agree w/ Milenio. Sizeable decline for both Calderon and the PAN in Congress, and, what's most worrying, much of it coming from their heartland in the North and West. Still well within the MOE, but it ain't looking good. The brother-in-law calumny seems to be working all right: until now Calderon was the only candidate that was untainted by scandal - they've succeded to change that. All the technicalities are as usual, so see above. In brackets change from the last pre-debate poll:

Whom would you vote for President (likely voters):

Lopez Obrador 37% (+2)
Calderon 35% (-4)
Madrazo 23% (+1)
Mercado 3% (+1)
Campa 1% (nil)

Preferences of independents:
Lopez Obrador 40% (nil)
Calderon 33% (-7) !!

By region

North
Calderon 46% (-4)
Madrazo 26% (+2)
Lopez Obrador 24% (+2)

Center-West
Calderon 42% (-7) !!
Lopez Obrador 26% (+3)
Madrazo 26% (+3)

Center
Lopez Obrador 50% (+2)
Calderon 28% (-3)
Madrazo 16% (nil)

South
Lopez Obrador 41% (-1)
Madrazo 29% (+2)
Calderon 26% (-1)

Congress.

Elections for the House:

PAN 34% (-5)!!!
PRD-Convergencia-PT 31% (+2)
PRI-PVEM 29% (+2)
Panal 4% (+1) !!
Alternativa 2% (nil)

With respect to accusations about Calderon's brother-in-law, do you think Lopez Obrador makes sense, or is it an unfounded attack:

Unfounded attack 34%
Makes sense 33%
Don't know 33%

Who do you think will win:
Lopez Obrador 32%
Calderon 31%
Madrarzo 16%
Don't know 20%
Others 1%

[ag]

Mitofsky polling is also out, and shows something very similar (% of likely voters declaring preference) :

Lopez Obrador 35% (+1)
Calderon 32% (-2)
Madrazo 28% (nil)
Mercado 4% (+1)
Campa 1% (nil)

Voters not declaring preference 15%
% considered likely voters 63% (+1)

Some internals:

Lopez leads among both men and women. Calderon leads among those under 30, while Lopez leads among both te 30-49 and 50 and up (in fact, Calderon trails also Madrazo in the latter group).  Calderon leads in the North and Center (though the letter is split nearly evenly three-way), while Lopez leads in the south and gets the preference of 57% in Mexico City.  Lopez leads in urban areas (nearly tied w/ Calderon) and Madrazo leads in rural areas. Calderon leads in both PAN-governed states and PRI-governed states in the North, while Lopez leads both in PRD-governed states and PRI-governed states in the Center and in the South. On education, Madrazo leads (nearly tied with Lopez) among both those with primary school and junior high school education. Lopez leads (closely followed by Calderon) among those with high school education, while Calderon takes whooping 51% among those with college degrees (actually up from the previous polling).

Congressional preference at present is equally split:

PAN 32% (-1)
PRI-PVEM 31% (-1)
PRD-PT-Convergencia 31% (-1)
Other parties 6% (+3)

On this basis Mitofsky estimates congressional representation as following:

House (out of 500)

PRI-PVEM between 165 and 189
PAN between 149 and 173
PRD-PT-Convergencia between 140 and 164
Alternativa and/or Panal 5 to 12

Senate (out of 128)

PRI-PVEM 43 to 53
PAN 36 to 46
PRD-PT-Convergencia 32 to 42
Alternativa and/or Panal 1 to 3

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What would the bits of the PRD that were it's original core do if the PRD becomes the PRI mk.II? Leave or?...

[© tweed]

New poll by "Parametria"

Lopez Obrador 36.5%
Calderon 32.5%
Madrazo 27%

Obrador seems to have built a solid 3-4% lead.

[ag]

New poll by "Parametria"

Lopez Obrador 36.5%
Calderon 32.5%
Madrazo 27%

Obrador seems to have built a solid 3-4% lead.

Actually, it is tighter (though even this would have been within the MOE). There has been a poll in between which showed a similar-sized Calderon lead, though it wasn't one of the majors, so I didn't report it. The average of the post-debate polls would, probably, give something like a 1 or 2 point lead to Lopez Obrador.  I still think he will win, by up to 5 points, but the polls don't show a "solid" 3-4% lead, no matter how you read them. My projection is based on other things - a lot of them of the "hunch" variety.

[jaichind]

There are news that PAN are diverting funds from Congressional races into the Prez race in the form of more TV ads.  I guess they are getting desperate but still think that the race is still winnable.  The AMLO camp seems to be holding back thinking that everyone is watching the World Cup anyway so what is the point of TV ads. 

[ag]

There are news that PAN are diverting funds from Congressional races into the Prez race in the form of more TV ads.  I guess they are getting desperate but still think that the race is still winnable.  The AMLO camp seems to be holding back thinking that everyone is watching the World Cup anyway so what is the point of TV ads. 

Well, Calderon's adds star the national squad players - he is the only one who got their endorsements so far. Though if they lose today to Portugal, it might not have the desired impact. Yes, the race is still winnable, but very, very difficult.

[ag]

I don't have time to be posting these days, but there have been a few polls recently (Universal, Reforma, etc.) and they all seem to be converging: Lopez obrador 36%, Calderon 34%, Madrazo 25-26%. It's almost like they coordinate.

[jaichind]

Mexican law seems to disallow the release of polls the last week before the election.  This law makes the election more unpredictable since tactical voters are not given accurate information to base their tactical voting on.  Look for surprise endorcements in the last few days before the election to convince the PRI tactical voter one way or another about if PRI is really out of the running and that they should shift to AMLO.  Recent events in Oaxaca is also interesting where a PRI civil war is going between the PRI government there and the PRI rebel faction Gordillo supported teachers union.  Of course this entire conflict might be staged to give the PRI an excuse to not have an election and then claim the entire 2006 Prez election should not count.

[ag]

Well, the endorsements have been happening for a while. One of the PRI union confederations (CROC) has just endorsed PRD a couple of days ago.

The rest I don't understand: there is no way PRI can use any "excuse not to have an election" (I don't understand what that means). The Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) decides these things, and it is not controlled by any party, not even by the governing PAN.  Yes, IFE could annul an election if it were to find irreparable irregularities, or it could be annuled by the equally independent Supreme Electoral Tribunal (an independent electoral court, which is the final arbiter on all electoral matters), but PRI's internal splits aren't goign to decide that.

As for the Gordillo/Madrazo split in PRI - that was for real, no question. Madrazo got the nomination by consecutive political slaughter of all his internal opponents who refused an immediate and unconditional surrender. Most of PRI top hats couldn't possibly hate Madrazo any more than they do. If, as it seems likely, he comes third and PRI does badly in the congressional and gubernatorial races as well, Madrazo will be ritually slaughtered in public, and his remains used to stuff the tamales to feed the delegates at the very next party congress (I am exaggerating of course, but not that much). The guy is running for his life right now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

When is the election?

[© tweed]

When is the election?

July 2

[Cubby]

Mitofsky polling is also out, and shows something very similar (% of likely voters declaring preference) :

Lopez Obrador 35% (+1)
Calderon 32% (-2)
Madrazo 28% (nil)
Mercado 4% (+1)
Campa 1% (nil)

Voters not declaring preference 15%
% considered likely voters 63% (+1)

Some internals:

Lopez leads among both men and women. Calderon leads among those under 30, while Lopez leads among both te 30-49 and 50 and up (in fact, Calderon trails also Madrazo in the latter group).

Why would those under 30 support the most conservative candidate? Thats unusual. So much for youthful idealism.........

PAN is the socially conservative party, they are like the Bible Belt Republicans, so I hope Calderon loses.