Mexico 2006

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Tradesports has Calderon 86.5%, Obrador 11.0%.

[ag]

Just for the fun of it, here is my own precinct (I am adding up two booths, since they correspond to the same geographic area, voters were assigned to separate booths alphabetcially, based on the last name and the two booths were at the same polling station). If anything, this was a strong performance for Lopez Obrador, given the nature of the area:

Calderon (PAN) 497 votes
Lopez Obrador (PRD-Convergencia-PT)  155 votes
Madrazo (PRI-PVEM) 51 votes
Mercado (Alternativa) 15 votes
Campa (Panal) 3 votes
write-ins 1 vote
Invalid 4 votes

[ag]

The far-away places seem to be coming in, and these are kinder to Madrazo. He's been gaining on the other two for the last 30 minutes:

With 103,429 precincts reporting (79.03% of the total) we have

Calderon (PAN) 37.07%
Lopez Obrador (PRD-PT-Convergencia) 36.04%
Madrazo (PRI-PVEM) 20.17%
Mercado (Alternativa) 3.00%
Campa (Panal) 0.98%
write-ins 0.74%
Invalid votes 1.96%

The gap between the top two has inched up to just over 1% or about 330,000 votes

[ag]

In Mexico City things remain as I've reported before, with a slight twist. PRD is leading accross the board. Out of 27 federal congressional districts it is taking 25, out of 41 local assembley districts it is taking 37. Lopez Obrador is leading in all but 1 of the 16 municipal districts of the city.

The only change seems to be that PRI seems to be losing control of its only municipal district to PRD, while PAN is picking another district from PRD (though very narrowly, this might be reversed). Thus, PRD will still control 13 districts, as it has since 2003 and PAN goes up one to 3, while PRI is eliminated. The change, mainly, reflects development: the district that PAN is picking up (Cuajimalpa) contains most of the rapidly developing area of Santa Fe. The other two PAN controlled districts (which PAN seems to be holding easier than last time) are the heartland of Mexican middle class, the district of Benito Juarez (this is also the only district in the city where Calderon leads - by all human development indicators it is the most "first world" municipality in Mexico) and Miguel Hidalgo, which contains the super-rich Polanco and Lomas areas(together with some poor districts).

[ag]

The small expat postal vote has gone solidly PAN.

The results are

Calderon 19,016 (58.3%)
Lopez Obrador 11,090 (34.0%)
Madrazo 1,360 votes (4.7%)
Mercado 887 votes (2.7%)
Campa 128 votes (0.4%)

[ag]

With 107,505 precincts reporting (82.15% of the total) we have

Calderon (PAN) 37.01%
Lopez Obrador (PRD-PT-Convergencia) 35.87%
Madrazo (PRI-PVEM) 20.40%
Mercado (Alternativa) 2.97%
Campa (Panal) 0.99%
write-ins 0.74%
Invalid votes 1.99%

In absolute terms the gap has grown back to about 380,000 votes

Mexico City is all but done reporting - only 120 precincts left

[ag]

Latest Reforma projection for winners in the 300 congressional districts:

PAN 145
PRD+Convergencia+PT 104
PRI+PVEM 51

[ag]

With 1661 out of 2050 precincts (81.02%)  in the state of Morelos reporting PAN is squeaking through on governorship:

PAN 35.94%
PRD-Convergencia-PT 32.04%
PRI-PVEM 27.82%

With 85.61% of precincts reporting, PAN is also barely ahead in Jalisco (note different coalitions from the national):
PAN 45.15
PRI 41.14
PRD-PT 7.98%

PAN victory in Guanajuato is far beyond any doubt - they have a comfortably large outright majority.

[ag]

A fresh look at Senate trends. Assuming the current position holds (at 82.78% of the precincts reporting), then the 96 senators from states (another 32 senators are distributed by national PR) will be allocated as follows:

PAN will get 2 senators (1st place) in Aguascalientes, Baja California,  Coahuila, Colima, Chihuahua, Durango, Guanajuato, Jalisco, Morelos, Nuevo Leon, Puebla, Queretaro, San Luis Potosi, Sonora, Tamaulipas, Yucatan

PAN will get 1 seat (2nd place) in Baja California Sur, Campeche, Mexico City, Mexico State, Michoacan,  Sinaloa, Tlaxcala, Veracruz, Zacatecas

Total PAN  41 senators (+, on present trends it should get 11 or 12 PR seats, giving it over 50 total)

PRD + PT + Convergencia will get 2 senators from Baja California Sur, Mexico City, Guerrero, Hidalgo, Mexico State, Michoacan, Nayarit, Oaxaca, Tabasco, Tlaxcala, Veracruz, Zacatecas

PRD+PT+Convergencia will get 1 senator from Chiapas and Morelos

Total PRD+PT+Convergencia 26 senators (+ another, roughly, 10 on PR)

PRI+PVEM will get the remaining 29 senators from states (+ another roughly 10 from PR), mostly from taking a second spot. They only lead in Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana Roo and Sinaloa, but they are second in most of the rest.

[ag]

With 110,208 precincts reporting (84.26% of the total) we have

Calderon (PAN) 36.97%
Lopez Obrador (PRD-PT-Convergencia) 35.77%
Madrazo (PRI-PVEM) 20.54%
Mercado (Alternativa) 2.95%
Campa (Panal) 0.99%
write-ins 0.74%
Invalid votes 2.01%

In absolute terms the gap has grown to about 410,000 votes

[ag]

State by state, this is the current lead of congressional candidates in the FPTP districts.
Aguascalientes PAN 3
Baja California PAN 8
Baja California Sur PRD+Convergencia+PT 2
Campeche PAN 1, PRI+PVEM 1
Coahuila PAN 5, PRI+PVEM 1, PRD+Convergencia+PT 1 (a rare PRD inroad in the North)
Colima PAN 2
Chiapas PRI+PVEM 6, PRD+Convergencia+PT 5, PAN 1
Chihuahua PAN 5, PRI+PVEM 4
Durango PAN 3, PRI+PVEM 1
Guanajuato PAN 14
Guerrero PRD+Convergencia+PT 9
Hidalgo PRI+PVEM 3, PRD+Convergencia+PT 3, PAN 1
Jalisco PAN 18, PRI+PVEM 1
Mexico State PRD+Convergencia+PT 23, PAN 11, PRI+PVEM 6
Mexico City PRD+Convergencia+PT 25, PAN 2
Michoacan PRD+Convergencia+PT 7, PAN 4, PRI+PVEM 1
Morelos PAN 3, PRI+PVEM 1, PRD+Convergencia+PT 1
Nayarit PRI+PVEM 2, PRD+Convergencia+PT 1
Nuevo Leon PAN 8, PRI+PVEM 4
Oaxaca PRD+Convergencia+PT 9, PRI+PVEM 2
Puebla PAN 12, PRI+PVEM 2, PRD+Convergencia+PT 2
Queretaro PAN 4
Quintana Roo PAN 1, PRI+PVEM 1, PRD+Convergencia+PT 1
San Luis Potosi PAN 7
Sinaloa PRI+PVEM 6, PAN 2
Sonora PAN 5, PRI+PVEM 2
Tabasco PRD+Convergencia+PT 6
Tamaulipas PAN 6, PRI+PVEM 2
Tlaxcala PAN 2, PRD+Convergencia+PT 1
Veracruz PAN 13, PRD+Convergencia+PT 5, PRI+PVEM 3
Yucatan PAN 4, PRI+PVEM 1
Zacatecas PRD+Convergencia+PT 3, PAN 1

[ag]

Madrazo continues rebounding, and it costs both Lopez and Calderon.  Only 101 precincts left to report in Mexico City.

With 119,904 precincts reporting (91.65% of the total) we have

Calderon (PAN) 36.65%
Lopez Obrador (PRD-PT-Convergencia) 35.56%
Madrazo (PRI-PVEM) 21.08%
Mercado (Alternativa) 2.87%
Campa (Panal) 0.99%
write-ins 0.74%
Invalid votes 2.07%

In absolute terms the gap is now just over 400,000 votes (it has been actually shrinking, from the high of about 435,000).

Updated

[ag]

With vote counting complete, PAN has managed to capture the city of Monterrey in a tight fight with PRI: 46% to 43%.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Unless I'm reading things wrong, the PRI has collapsed in the legislative elections?

[??????????]

What is PANs' stance on the invasion immigration to the USA problem?

[Frodo]

What is PANs' stance on the invasion immigration to the USA problem?

From what I understand, Calderon's position is that Mexico can best deal with the illegal immigration problem by looking abroad to attract foreign investment  to create jobs in Mexico.  Everything else flows from there, including keeping a balanced budget. 

[??????????]

What is PANs' stance on the invasion immigration to the USA problem?

From what I understand, Calderon's position is that Mexico can best deal with the illegal immigration problem by looking abroad to attract foreign investment  to create jobs in Mexico.  Everything else flows from there, including keeping a balanced budget. 

Ok, so not any really effective or good answer then.

[MODU]

What is PANs' stance on the invasion immigration to the USA problem?

From what I understand, Calderon's position is that Mexico can best deal with the illegal immigration problem by looking abroad to attract foreign investment  to create jobs in Mexico.  Everything else flows from there, including keeping a balanced budget. 

Ok, so not any really effective or good answer then.

But it's the right answer.  The only way it will slow down is if the Mexican economy and job market increases.  That's why I say any money earmarked to be wasted on a wall between the two nations would be better spent by "Americanizing" Chihuahua or one of the other border states, giving the Mexican government the tax base they need, giving the Mexicans well paying jobs in their own country, giving US companies increased revenue off of cheaper labor, and giving the US government less illegals to chase down each year.

[agcatter]

Looks like this one is over - just under 400,000 vote lead with just under 97% of the vote in.  Close, but enough of a gap to head off any credible challenge to the final outcome - doesn't look like this is Florida.  That is good as Mexico didn't need chaos regardless of who the winner finally turned out to be.

On the other hand, wouldn't shock me if Jimma showed up, declared the election a fraud, and declared the leftoid the true winner.

[MODU]

Looks like this one is over - just under 400,000 vote lead with just under 97% of the vote in.  Close, but enough of a gap to head off any credible challenge to the final outcome - doesn't look like this is Florida.  That is good as Mexico didn't need chaos regardless of who the winner finally turned out to be.

That's true.  However, it does look like there is some unrest brewing in and around the country.  Hopefully it will all come to a quick end when the official tally is read on Thursday.

[Frodo]

If his lead holds, Calderon will become the next president of Mexico:

Conservative's Slim Lead in Mexico Buoys Markets

By JAMES C. McKINLEY Jr.
Published: July 3, 2006

MEXICO CITY, July 3 — The latest uncertified results in Sunday's fiercely contested Mexican presidential election show a slim lead for the conservative candidate, Felipe Calderón.

Investors seized on the news and sharply bid up the prices of Mexican stocks and the value of its currency in early trading today. The Bolsa index gained more than 3 percent and the Mexican peso rose 9 percent against the dollar.

Election officials declared on Sunday that they could not immediately determine a winner, that certified results were days away, and that a recount was likely in the close race. The two front runners each declared victory anyway, setting in motion an electoral crisis.

The contest pitted Mr. Calderón, a conservative former energy minister backed by business leaders, primarily against Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the firebrand leftist former mayor of Mexico City, supported mostly by the poor. A third candidate, Roberto Madrazo, the former governor of Tabasco state, also received substantial support.

With 94.26 percent of the votes counted, the Federal Electoral Institute said this morning, Mr. Calderón had 36.55 percent of the count so far, and Mr. López Obrador with 35.46 percent. Mr. Madrazo trailed with 21.28 percent.

[??????????]

So does this mean Mexica is going to stop the huge drug trafficking problem? har har

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The current President is PAN, so don't expect any serious changes in policy under a new PAN admin.

[ag]

Unless I'm reading things wrong, the PRI has collapsed in the legislative elections?

You are reading it right. Their collapse and PAN gain has been even further accentuated by the last-year's redistricting.

PRI is coming third in both the House and the Senate race, though in the Senate, because of the state-representation component awarding a senator to the party coming second, they will, probably, have a few more senators then PRD.

My back-of-the-envelope estimate is that PAN will have 53-55 senators, PRI will have about 40 (shared with PVEM, PRD will have about 36-38 (shared with PT and Convergencia), Panal will have, may be, 2, and Alternativa, which at present gets 1.99% of the vote may or may not get 1. Things don't add up to 128, but this is back-of the-envelope.

In the House, PAN will, probably, get over 210 seats (in fact, due to their good district performance, they might hit the PR limitation of not having more than 8% over the share of the popular vote, meaning they might not have their PR quota filled). PRI will get just about 110 or less, and they will have to share it with PVEM, PRD will get healthy share around 170, but they will have to share with both PT and Convergencia. Both midgets seem to be getting through, with Panal, probably, getting something like 9 seats, and Alternativa 4.

[WMS]

From reading this thread...my opinion of Obrador and the PRD is going down...Hugo Chavez Mk. III here