Mexico 2006

[ag]

Actually, I do have a couple minutes, so let me do it.

The basic development is rapid - I would say stunning - disintegration of PRI.

A week ago there was a rumor, that PRI state governors were planning to force Madrazo to declare himself terminally sick and resign the nomination, hoping to have the courts allow them a late substitute. In fact, they were rumored to be willing to forgo the presidential candidacy at all if substitution were impossible: they, it was said, were convinced Madrazo was dragging their congressional numbers down (aside for not having any chances for his own victory).  The rumors must have been valid: not only was Madrazo forced to personally deny them, he had to drag out the sullen governors and smile carnivorously as they issued public denials and tortured endorsements.

The next day, a group of former cabinet members in Zedillo administration, including a former party chairman and a current Senator, endorsed Calderon (though they claim to remain within the PRI). Not to be outdone, the following day another PRI Senator - from Madrazo's and Lopez Obrador's home state of Tabasco - and some traditionally PRIista union leaders endorsed Lopez Obrador (likewise, they claim to maintain the PRI membership).

But all this wasn't really bizarre. The bizarre started two days ago.

Madrazo publically asked for an alliance with Lopez Obrador against Calderon.  So far, it is supposed to be a tactical alliance, to prevent the "State Election" - ie, Fox administration imposing its candidate, as he is ostensibly doing by continuing the public advertisements of the administration's successes (though just today Fox said that effective immediately he will stop it).  Though both PRD and PRI have together assaulted Fox's role for a while, an alliance would be tremendously controversial within both parties - especially among the older PRD members.

Yesterday, there was, I think, a chaos. On one hand, state-level PRD and PRI in (PAN-dominated) Guanajuato have concluded a formal alliance and the national organizations have started coordinating legal challenges. On the other hand, the national leadership of PRD does not know how to respond - one of Lopez Obrador's top aides has come out against any alliance, Obrador has said it is a "PRD business" (whatever that means). The usual PRD daily mouthpiece La Jornada today seemed at a loss: while they were customarily vicious attacking PAN, Fox and Calderon, for once they almost avoided mentioning either Madrazo or Lopez Obrador (they did have a couple of articles on the matter, but all extremely matter-of-fact).

The chaos was capped by the Old Engineer (Cuahutemoc Cardenas) making a rare public speach at the commemoration of his sainted father's (late president Lazaro Cardenas of the oil nationalization fame) 111th birthday, also yesterday. Of course, Cuahutemoc is the PRD's main founder and three-time presidential candidate, first elected Mayor of Mexico City, and, officially, the party's "moral leader".  To repeated entreaties by other PRD leaders to take part in the campaign he said, literally this:

1) He is not a party official or candidate for anything anymore, so the only way he can support a candidate is, like all other Mexican citizens, by voting for him/her. He is a party member and will vote for the party's candidate (name never pronounced).

2) There is no candidate in this race whose proposals he feels like he can support. The country needs a "progressive" candidate, and there isn't one.

3) There is no real "State Election": of course, Fox is not neutral, but neither is PRD-controlled government of the Federal District (so the party's candidates can't really claim being persecuted).

4) Any alliance with PRI is only possible after complete and public disassociation from that party's political goals and objectives (or else, after PRI abandons them fully).

I guess, for the next few days I don't really understand what is going on

[minionofmidas]

Maybe Madrazo and Lopez Obrador will morph into a single person.

[ag]

Maybe Madrazo and Lopez Obrador will morph into a single person.

Actually, they are, Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde style .

[ag]

New Reforma poll is out. Surprising, how the last few days of crazy news seem to not affect anything. The debate effect seems to be somewhat reduced, the race is still deadly close. Given what I believe to be Reforma's poll PAN bias, it might be even closer. The crazy regionals from the last time self-corrected, though. On the other hand, the regional changes, once again, don't seem to add up to national changes - I have no clue what is going on.

Nationwide poll of 2099 registered voters, of which 1764 indicated a candidate preference. Declared MOE 2.3%. In brackets, change from the May 3 poll.

If tomorrow there were elections for President, whom would you vote for (% of those who expressed preference):

Felipe Calderon (PAN) 39 (-1)
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (PRD-PT-Convergencia) 35% (+2)
Roberto Madrazo (PRI-PVEM) 22% (nil)
Patricia Mercado (Alternativa) 2.3% (-1.4)
Roberto Campa (Panal) 1.2% (+0.5)

Regionals:

North

Calderon 50% (+3)
Madrazo 24% (-1)
Lopez Obrador 22% (-2)

Center-West

Calderon 49% (-4)
Lopez Obrador 23% (+5)
Madrazo 23% (-1)

Center

Lopez Obrador 48% (+1)
Calderon 31% (-1)
Madrazo 16% (+1)

South

Lopez Obrador 42% (+8)
Madrazo 27% (nil)
Calderon 27% (-7)


Independents (self-declared)

Calderon 40% (-2)
Lopez Obrador 40% (+4)

The congressional polls show very little change.

[MaC]

Calderon's gonna win it.

[ag]

Calderon's gonna win it.

Actually, if I had to bet, I do bet on Lopez. It is a very close race, though.

[Cubby]

Ag, remind me again why you dislike Obrador. You said he is really just a PRI guy with a new orginization but are there other reasons?

I was saddened by AMLO's declining support over the past month. What does "Shut Up Chalucaha" mean in English? (As long as its not a curse word here too )

Does the Catholic Church actively support PAN, or is it the other way around?

[Colin]

Ag, remind me again why you dislike Obrador. You said he is really just a PRI guy with a new orginization but are there other reasons?

Well personally if I was a Mexican I would be pissed off at the PRI and any of their former cronies mostly for keeping the country a one-party dictatorship for 70 or so years.

[ag]

Ag, remind me again why you dislike Obrador. You said he is really just a PRI guy with a new orginization but are there other reasons?

I was saddened by AMLO's declining support over the past month. What does "Shut Up Chalucaha" mean in English? (As long as its not a curse word here too )

Does the Catholic Church actively support PAN, or is it the other way around?

1. A lot of my dislike of Lopez Obrador has to do with him personally: extremely vindictive, mentally semi-stable at best, highly distrustful of democratic institutions (such as courts), very fishy character in general. In addition, he combines a lot of what I find the worst in the PRI/PRD tradition: populist pronouncements intermixed with vote buying and machine building, more than any ideology really.

Finally, I didn't like him as a mayor.  He would not ever deal with other politicians, be that the federal government or the neighboring state governments - he wouldn't meet with the governor of Mexico State for the last 4 years of his mayoralty.  Almost all infrastructure projects that required intergovernment cooperation got nowhere under him. Though this is less relevant here, he was very bad for public transit, building ultra-expensive highways without exits and blocking all subway construction.  This was despite the fact that all the official development plans, including those he himself approved in his first year, were based on public transit expansion and the highway plans had to be designed from scratch - one night he woke up with a "dream" of a big new highway, and nothing else would happen as long as he was mayor. In fact, he was so stubbornly resistant to building a commuter line into the northern suburbs, that he wouldn't even issue permits despite the fact that the city wouldn't have to pay for it - it would be mostly build with federal and state money (they started construction almost immediately after he resigned to run for presidency).

2. As for the PRI role: yesterday, Sen. Manuel Bartlett of PRI has officially endorsed him. For those of you who don't recongnize the name, Bartlett was the Interior Secretary who actually stole the 1988 elections for PRI - he was literally the one to order the "system crash" during the count. Bartlett is the classic figure of the old PRI, and even though his endorsement only came yesterday, it was well-known for a while. Bartlett's closest aid, Manuel Camacho Solis has been the head of Obrador's campaign in the North since last year, while Camacho Solis's own man Marcelo Ebrard has gotten the PRD nomination for the Mexico City mayor. So, Bartlett, the PRI man who stole the election from the PRD in 1988 is on board, while PRD's own then candidate Cardenas, from whom the election was stolen, refuses to have anything to do with Lopez Obrador. You wonder why.

3. "Callate chachalaca" could be translated as "shut up, parrot" ("chachalaca" is a little bird with an annoying voice).

4. The church, probably, would support Calderon if it could. But any public prounouncement would be very controversial: priests only got the voting rights a decade ago (they still can't run for office), and any agitation by them might be illegal. All the main candidates have met with the church leaders (the Catholic Bishops' Council took care of arranging meetings with all of them). Calderon is, clearly, the favorite son - he makes all the necessary noises about being "pro-life", etc. (in any case, abortion is largely banned here - originally banned by PRI, by the way - and will remain banned no matter who wins).  Calderon and PAN also took care of courting the Protestants: evangelical groups were allowed to name a couple of PAN congressional candidates and are fairly active in their support.

[ag]

The strange disintegration of PRI is continuing. As I said, yesterday Sen. Manuel Bartlett (one of the most important PRIistas still around - he'd been the Secretary of the Interior, the most important cabinet position in Mexico,  back in the de la Madrid administration, back in the 1980s) endorsed Lopez Obrador. Today Gov. Eduardo Bours of Sonora had a long - and announced - private meeting with Calderon. No official announcement so far, but pretty much everyone is assuming this is, at least, an informal endorsement. 

The beauty of the Duverger's law - the third guy is out under the FPTP, even if he has the ex ante strongest party behind him.

[ag]

Rumor is, next week Cardenas will, finally, (be forced to?) publicly endorse Lopez Obrador.

Frankly, unless Calderon clearly wins the debate on June 6, I am increasingly inclined to conclude Lopez will win.  PRI is disintegrating too quickly - and re-forming under the PRD banner.  Not good.

[© tweed]

New Poll by Milenio (I have no idea about which polls are accurate and which aren't, maybe ag knows)

Lopez Obrador 33.6%
Calderon 33.1%
Madrazo 30%

MOE 3.2%

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=2015940

[YoMartin]

The beauty of the Duverger's law - the third guy is out under the FPTP, even if he has the ex ante strongest party behind him.

Until recently I thought Duverger´s "psychological" FPTP effect concerned both voters as political elites. I mean, if you assume strategic behavior from voters (who have barely nothing to lose by "wasting" their vote) you would certainly have to assume that kind of behavior among elites (i.e., PRIistas deffecting their losing candidate). But, funny thing, Duverger barely speaks about elite behavior while stating his famous "laws".

[ag]

New Poll by Milenio (I have no idea about which polls are accurate and which aren't, maybe ag knows)

Lopez Obrador 33.6%
Calderon 33.1%
Madrazo 30%

MOE 3.2%

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=2015940

I don't think it is very reliable - Milenio doesn't even always use the same pollster, so hard to talk about the track record.  They present few numbers, and those they present look suspicious: for one, it is hard to imagine, for instance, why PAN would do much better for Senate then for president, while at the same time doing the worst in the House race - in the absence of reelection and w/ PR people vote for parties, not for candidates. I wouldn't trust the high Madrazo number either (he'd have to substantially gain after months in which disaster was his daily news) - but the fact that the two front-runners are tied sounds plausible.

[MaC]

hear anything on polls lately ag?

[ag]

hear anything on polls lately ag?

Mitofsky is out - will do it tomorrow, but it shows the exact draw (last time it was 1% Calderon lead, so this should count as flat). Also, there is some polling for the Mexico City mayoral race from Reforma (not much news there either).

[ag]

So these are the latest Mitofsky results. Nationwide polling on May 23-28, 1400 registered voters, MOE for all (registered) voters 2.6%, 3.2% for likely voters. In brackets change from early May.

If today were the elections for the President, whom would you vote for?
Percentages of likely voters (62% of the total), expressing a preference (85% of the total)

Felipe Calderon (PAN) 34% (-1)
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (PRD-PT-Convergencia) 34% (nil)
Roberto Madrazo (PRI-PVEM) 28% (+1)
Patricia Mercado (Alternativa) 3% (nil)
Roberto Campa (Panal) 1% (nil)

As you see, there is really no change. The main change is, I think Calderon's negatives are up - the other two have been attacking him non-stop.

Some internals (these, naturally, have huge MOE)

Men

Calderon 35%
Lopez Obrador 35%
Madrazo 25%
Other 4%

Women

Calderon 33%
Lopez Obrador 33%
Madrazo 30%
Other 5%

Education

Elementary school

Madrazo 37%
Lopez Obrador 33%
Calderon 28%

Secondary School

Lopez Obrador 34%
Calderon 33%
Madrazo 29%

High school

Lopez Obrador 38%
Calderon 34%
Madrazo 23%

College or more

Calderon 48%
Lopez Obrador 28%
Madrazo 20%

Region

North

Calderon 42%
Madrazo 32%
Lopez Obrador 24%

Center (without the capital city)

Calderon 36%
Madrazo 30%
Lopez Obrador 29%

South

Lopez Obrador 53%
Madrazo 32%
Calderon 14%

Mexico City

Lopez Obrador 52%
Calderon 29%
Madrazo 13%

Urban areas

Lopez Obrador 37%
Calderon 35%
Madrazo 24%

Rural areas

Madrazo 42%
Calderon 32%
Lopez Obrador 22%

Governing party at the state level

7 Northern states governed by PRI

Calderon 41%
Madrazo 33%
Lopez Obrador 24%

10 other (center-south) states governed by PRI

Lopez Obrador 40%
Madrazo 27%
Calderon 26%

9 states governed by PAN

Calderon 43%
Madrazo 27%
Lopez Obrador 27%

5 states governed by PRD

Lopez Obrador 47%
Calderon 29%
Madrazo 21%

Congress.

Are you going to vote for the same party for president and congress?

Yes 59% (+3)
No 27% (-4)
Don't know, etc. - rest

Congressional vote intention (incredible, isn't it?):

PAN 33%
PRD-PT-Convergencia 32%
PRI-PVEM 32%

But because of how the vote concentrated, it doesn't mean the congress will divide evenly. Note, that pre-electoral coalitions don't have to hold inside the Congress - that is, some of the PRI seats are going to be PVEM, some of the PRD seats are going to be Convergencia and PT, and the three minor partners don't have to stick together with the big one, once they piggy-back into the Congress. PAN seats are all PAN. This is the Mitofsky estimate of the seat allocation (range):

House (500 seats)

PRI-PVEM 183 - 203 seats
PAN 147 - 165 seats
PRD 135 - 151 seats
Alternativa and/or Panal 5 - 8 seats

Senate (128 seats)

PRI-PVEM 42 - 58 seats
PAN 34 - 42 seats
PRD-PT-Convergencia 32 - 40 seats
Alternativa and/or Panal 1 - 2 seats

[ag]

I tend to focus on the Mexico City, because that's where I live. Mexico City is very much a PRD-machine town. Last week Reforma published a poll which gave Lopez Obrador 58% of the vote (most of the rest went to Calderon, w/ Madrazo almost in single digits). Even the lacklustre PRD mayoral candidate, Marcelo Ebrard, got 51% of the vote (both PAN's Demetrio Sodi and PRI's Beatriz Paredez got 23% apiece - Paredes is a much stronger candidate then Sodi, but PRI is almost non-existant here, and Sodi has been more active campaigning, so last month he for the first time matched her in the also-run race). While in my neighborhood Calderon will, probably, get over 2/3 of the vote, this is an exception. At least, in my congressional district PAN should have a chance (due, in part, to a recent redistricting) - but not a big one.

But yesterday I was in Guadalajara (Mexico's 2nd largest city, w/ over 4 mln. people in the metro area), and there the thing is very different.  The state of Jalisco is very much a two-party PAN vs. PRI territory. A lot of the cars have Calderon stickers, as well as those for the PAN gobernatorial candidate Emilio Gonzalez. And, unlike in Mexico City, a lot of these cars are old, cheap and battered - in DF it seems the prerequisite for a "Felipe" sticker is that the car is, at least, a BMW of a recent make. Likewise, there are a lot of stickers for the PRI gobernatorial candidate Zamora. Interestingly enough, few of the same cars carry a Madrazo sticker, though the large campaign posters for Madrazo are visible.  While a colleague I was travelling with claims to have seen Lopez Obrador car stickers, I didn't see any - and that even though Lopez Obrador, alone among the candidates, was in town, with a big campaign event scheduled for that very night in the northern suburbs. There were a few haggard-looking Obrador posters, but they were dwarfed by those of the competition. I think I've seen one poster for a PRD senatorial candidate - right next to his PAN opponent's sign that was 3 times the size. I did see one guy in a PRD/Obrador t-shirt, but it said something like "Michoacan (a neighboring PRD-governed state) is with PRD" (this is like an "Indiana Votes Republican" t-shirt in Chicago). A big news in the local media was a public denial by the PRD gobernatorial candidate that he is going to withdraw and endorse the PRI candidate. He said it was a lie, and he would fight against the "two-party system" ("bipartidismo").

On the way back though, one could recongnize the state border with Michoacan by a huge institutional-looking poster of the Michoacan PRD candidate for Senate. Of course, Michoacan is PRD-governed and was the only state to vote PRD in the 2000 presidential election (though it is also Calderon's native state, so this time it should be competitive)

[ag]

The main debate is tonight.

Before the debate, there is another poll, this time from El Universal, and also a tie.  Madrazo seems to be thriving on PRI disintegration - or else, the effect of his disastrous first debate performance is now reduced.

Nationwide sample of 1500 registered voters with a 2.5 MOE, 3.4 MOE for the probable voters. In brackets, the change from May.

If today there was the election for president, whom would you vote for?

A. Probable voters expressing opinion

Calderon 36% (-3)
Lopez Obrador 36% (+1)
Madrazo 24% (+3)
Mercado 4% (nil)
Campa 0% (-1)

B. All registered voters

Calderon 30% (-1)
Lopez Obrador 28% (-1)
Madrazo 21% (+3)
Others + don't know, don't want to answer, etc. 11% (-1)


Regional data (from the all registered voters, as usual huge MOE, and the number of not giving top 3 as response does not add up - have no clue why)

1st circumscription, Northwest: Baja California, Baja California Sur, Colima, Guanajuato, Jalisco, Sinaloa and Sonora

Calderon 43% (+2)
Madrazo 24% (+8)
Lopez Obrador 17% (+2)
Other +don't know/no answer 16% (-12)

2nd circumscription, North: Aguascalientes, Coahuila, Chihuahua, Durango, Nuevo Leon, Queretaro, San Luis Potosi, Tamaulipas and Zacatecas

Calderon 28% (-14)!!!
Madrazo 26% (+4)
Lopez Obrador 22% (+7)
Other+don't know/no answer 24% (+3)

3rd cirumscription, Southeast: Campeche, Chiapas, Oaxaca, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, Veracruz and Yucatan

Lopez Obrador 32% (-3)
Madrazo 28% (+1)
Calderon 27% (+5)
Other + don't know/no answer 13% (-3)

4th circumscription, Center: Mexico City, Hidalgo, Morelos, Puebla and Tlaxcala

Lopez Obrador 35% (-7)
Calderon 22% (-2)
Madrazo 15% (+3)
Other+don't know/no answer 28% (+6)

5th circumsription, South: Guerrero, Mexico State and Michoacan

Lopez Obrador 37% (-3)
Calderon 27% (+5)
Madrazo 13% (-2)
Other+don't know/no answer 23% (nil)

Who do you think will win (all registered voters):

Calderon 30% (nil)
Lopez Obrador 28% (-2)
Madrazo 16% (nil)

Congress
If today there were elections for the House, whom would you vote for?
(of all registered voters)

PAN 28% (nil)
PRI-PVEM 22% (+3)
PRD-PT-Convergencia 21% (-1)
Other+don't know, don't answer 29%

Independently of your vote, what do you normally consider to be your party:

Independent 48% (+1)
PAN 20% (+1)
PRI 18% (+1)
PRD 13% (-2)
Other 1% (nil)

Independents would vote for:

Lopez Obrador 27% (+1)
Calderon 26% (-2)
Madrazo 11% (+2)

[ag]

The debate is on. Madrazo and Campa are both MUCH smoother than last time. Lopez does have some class, it seems. Calderon is remarkably bad - it seems he wants to lose the election.

[MaC]

sh**t!  the one good candidate.  Hopefully there'll be a last minute surprize for Calderon to take the win. 

[ag]

Calderon is the most aggressive today. He also tries to go downmarket, and it is so visibly fake it is not funny. He almost looks like Madrazo did last time. What I don't get is: Madrazo lost the last debate, why would one want to copy him. Lopez is just relaxed. Not really saying much, but making all the right sounds and responding with style. If I didn't know who he is, I might have even considered voting for him .

Honestly, I think it is over.

[ag]

Calderon is simply too nervous. He has even managed to make a few reasonable points on crime and economics, but the presentation is lacking. He also has presented himself far to rightwing - a lot more rightwing than he is. And Lopez has been posing himself as a nice, friendly, moderate, genuine left (which he is not). Calderon has been attacking without style: he has used the "l" word against Lopez without much provocation (well, there was provocation, but it was only clear to those in the know). It is almost like their personas are interchanged. Calderon has been very detailed on proposals (from life terms for kidnappers to water treatment plants), but it looks very coached.  Madrazo even looks better than Calderon  does - they completely switched roles.

[ag]

Calderon has relaxed a tiny bid; he looks a bit tired, but it is almost better than before. Not a good night. Now Lopez is more on the attack - smart enough, he is now absolved of being the attacker, since he'd been attacked before. He hasn't lost the cool for a second - in fact, other than Calderon, nobody did.

Even Campa is a lot more polished than before, but doesn't seem to be doing much. He may even be trying to copy Mercado and get his 2%. Mercado is somewhat boring this time, but she is addressing her own audience. She even managed to use the word "castellano" when speaking about Indians not speaking Spanish (while it is the appropriate name for the Spanish language, it is almost never used in Mexico, where it is "español") - she would be good as a Spanish MP from PSOE.  Anyway, she will get her 2% (I don't know about Campa).

[ag]

By the end both Lopez and Calderon seemed tired. Lopez made his first mistake - he gratuitously attacked as in "a (distant) relative of Felipe hasn't paid taxes" (literally) and ran out of time. Then he used some of his final statement to finish it - leaving Calderon to accuse him of being a liar, which, at least, he did not too badly. So Calderon's statement could start with "you won't win with lies, Sr. Lopez". Still, Lopez ended on "I am happy man; smile - we will win on July 2!" And Calderon's end was "Lopez is danger for Mexico. We will win on July 2!" (although, interestingly enough, Calderon smiled more - Lopez didn't really) "Happy men" do better, I am afraid.

To sum up, though the end was slightly better for Calderon, and despite him being far more specific on everything, both on attack and on proposals, he lost the debate.