Democratic MI/MS election results thread (first results @8pm ET)

[RightBehind]

Who knows if he'll get the nomination? Who knows how many states next week?

What I do know, and so should the rest of you, is that this isn't an Anti-Hillary movement. Bernie is for real and at this moment he has to be taken seriously. No state is safe for Clinton next week because the polls are not everything.

[IceSpear]

Who knows if he'll get the nomination? Who knows how many states next week?

What I do know, and so should the rest of you, is that this isn't an Anti-Hillary movement. Bernie is for real and at this moment he has to be taken seriously. No state is safe for Clinton next week because the polls are not everything.

Don't get carried away now. If Mississippi was voting on the 15th rather than tonight, would the outcome there suddenly be in question?

[Dr. Arch]

What's up with Ontonagon? Did they fall asleep?

[Skye]

I'm back. And holy crap at Bernie winning Michigan. Totally didn't see that one coming.

[RightBehind]

Who knows if he'll get the nomination? Who knows how many states next week?

What I do know, and so should the rest of you, is that this isn't an Anti-Hillary movement. Bernie is for real and at this moment he has to be taken seriously. No state is safe for Clinton next week because the polls are not everything.

Don't get carried away now. If Mississippi was voting on the 15th rather than tonight, would the outcome there suddenly be in question?

Not necessarily, but I think we're seeing a trend in which Bernie can carry states other than the Deep South. Don't forget the states next week have a much better chance of going blue in November.

[pikachu]

Who knows if he'll get the nomination? Who knows how many states next week?

What I do know, and so should the rest of you, is that this isn't an Anti-Hillary movement. Bernie is for real and at this moment he has to be taken seriously. No state is safe for Clinton next week because the polls are not everything.

Don't get carried away now. If Mississippi was voting on the 15th rather than tonight, would the outcome there suddenly be in question?

Not necessarily, but I think we're seeing a trend in which Bernie can carry states other than the Deep South. Don't forget the states next week have a much better chance of going blue in November.

Literally the only guaranteed blue state next week is Illinois. Ohio and Florida very slightly lean R, North Carolina definitely leans R, and I'll be shocked if we win Missouri.

[Cubby]

What's up with Ontonagon? Did they fall asleep?

I was wondering about that too. Maybe they have to be up at 5 AM to work in the copper mines.

Great job Bernie!!

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Tomorrow's Detroit Free Press: "Clinton Defeats Sanders"

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

What's up with Ontonagon? Did they fall asleep?

I was wondering about that too. Maybe they have to be up at 5 AM to work in the copper mines.

Great job Bernie!!

they aren't reporting for the republican primary either

[Antonio the Sixth]

Tomorrow's Detroit Free Press: "Clinton Defeats Sanders"

Nate has been far too overconfident in his primary predictions this cycle, in general.

[Boston Bread]

If anything, a proper polls-plus model should show Sanders overperforming polls in northern states, given how demographics have been king in the Dem primary, with endorsements meaning absolutely nothing. If a state is mostly white, Sanders will do well (except in IA, although I'd think if IA were held today Sanders would win)

[Cubby]

What's up with Ontonagon? Did they fall asleep?

I was wondering about that too. Maybe they have to be up at 5 AM to work in the copper mines.

Great job Bernie!!

they aren't reporting for the republican primary either

They are mostly from Finland, you see

[RightBehind]

Who knows if he'll get the nomination? Who knows how many states next week?

What I do know, and so should the rest of you, is that this isn't an Anti-Hillary movement. Bernie is for real and at this moment he has to be taken seriously. No state is safe for Clinton next week because the polls are not everything.

Don't get carried away now. If Mississippi was voting on the 15th rather than tonight, would the outcome there suddenly be in question?

Not necessarily, but I think we're seeing a trend in which Bernie can carry states other than the Deep South. Don't forget the states next week have a much better chance of going blue in November.

Literally the only guaranteed blue state next week is Illinois. Ohio and Florida very slightly lean R, North Carolina definitely leans R, and I'll be shocked if we win Missouri.

Missouri can happen. It's a mostly red state though not always. Ohio and Florida may not be guaranteed blue states, but he has a much better shot than he does in the Bible Belt states like Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, etc.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Tomorrow's Detroit Free Press: "Clinton Defeats Sanders"

Nate has been far too overconfident in his primary predictions this cycle, in general.

tbf, the polls' numbers for this race didn't match the final result. The closest one gave Hillary winning by 5 points. In this case it's not NS's fault and the "prediction" without nate's new method gave very similar results to the one that did use it

[Antonio the Sixth]

Tomorrow's Detroit Free Press: "Clinton Defeats Sanders"

Nate has been far too overconfident in his primary predictions this cycle, in general.

tbf, the polls' numbers for this race didn't match the final result. The closest one gave Hillary winning by 5 points. In this case it's not NS's fault and the "prediction" without nate's new method gave very similar results to the one that did use it

A good forecast needs to take into account the possibility that polls are way off. Primary polls are known to be generally unreliable.

[Gass3268]

Results from Ontonagon County!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Results from Ontonagon County!

Others/uncommitted doing well there, for some reason.

[Dr. Arch]

Results from Ontonagon County!

Another Bernie win

[Gass3268]

Results from Ontonagon County!

Others/uncommitted doing well there, for some reason.

UP is pretty blue dog.

[platypeanArchcow]

What's up with Ontonagon? Did they fall asleep?

I was wondering about that too. Maybe they have to be up at 5 AM to work in the copper mines.

More likely they are simply high.  I had a friend who used to spend time up there.  Apparently there's lots of weed-growing in the area.

[Gass3268]

All the returns are in from Washtenaw County (Home of Ann Arbor, University of Michigan, and University of Eastern Michigan). Bernie only won it by 11.7% or 8,041 votes. Very interesting.

[Tender Branson]

Clinton didn't even win Clinton county ... lolz.

[Antonio the Sixth]

All the returns are in from Washtenaw County (Home of Ann Arbor, University of Michigan, and University of Eastern Michigan). Bernie only won it by 11.7% or 8,041 votes. Very interesting.

Honestly, I would have expected a bit more considering he won the State. Still impressive.

[indysaff]

Wayne all in and its 49.9-48.2

[Dr. Arch]

Wayne all in and its 49.9-48.2

Once the rest clocks in, I think it's a clean 50% Sanders.