Democratic MI/MS election results thread (first results @8pm ET)

[Gass3268]

Still a lot of Genesee County out and 8 precincts out of Berrien County. Clinton is currently leading in both.

[indysaff]

Wayne all in and its 49.9-48.2

Once the rest clocks in, I think it's a clean 50% Sanders.

All that's left is Genesee and Berrien, Hillary leads in both.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Record high turnout.

[Dr. Arch]

Wayne all in and its 49.9-48.2

Once the rest clocks in, I think it's a clean 50% Sanders.

All that's left is Genesee and Berrien, Hillary leads in both.

Hopeful thinking, haha. Either way, rounded off it'll still be 50-48 Sanders.

[The Other Castro]

Record high turnout.

It is high, but also unfair to compare to 2008 due to the context of that situation.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout today has broken the 1972 record (in absolute terms, not in % terms):

2.5 million have voted. That is 34% of the state's 7.3 million registered voters.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Turnout today has broken the 1972 record (in absolute terms, not in % terms):

2.5 million have voted. That is 34% of the state's 7.3 million registered voters.

The fact that the previous record dated back to 1972 is pretty depressing though.

[yourelection]

Although Clinton comes away tonight with a larger delegate lead. Sander's win in Michingan will make it look like she was the loser. He will gain momentum going on to the Super Super Tuesday primaries in Florida, Ohio, etc.

More at: http://www.yourelection.net/2016/03/march-8-primaries-2016/

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Bernie Sanders did worse than McGovern is Mississippi ftr. 

[RBH]

a quick check of the "By CD" results on the Michigan SOS site and the split says... 67-63 Sanders in Michigan. That differs from the 69-61 on TGP in 2 ways. Clinton carries CD13 by a 6-3 margin and At-Large splits 14-14 instead of 15-13.

The Mississippi split is absurd. 32 to 4. Sanders not viable in CDs 2/3.

So, that'd add up to Clinton 95/Sanders 71 for the night. Margin of around 220 in pledged delegates.

As for the actual loss in Michigan... that'll teach certain people for trusting Michigan-based pollsters. Check those firms before tonight. Lousy records all over.

[dax00]

TYT calls it for sanders

I take them as seriously as DDHQ.

Yeah, tonight is their night, but they are so blindly biased it's not even funny.

No, they're openly biased (unlike the innately biased, establishment-backed, Hillary-supporting, non-liberal media), they admit to the bias, and they have the facts to back up their support.

[Panhandle Progressive]

DDHQ is trash.

This. And so is Nate Silver's analysis, btw.

You can't accurately make a prediction when the only polls that have been done are garbage.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Congrats to all the Bernie supporters on a great win in Michigan. It was hard fought and Bernie did much better than expected. On to Super Tuesday II.

[Averroës Nix]

Let's dispel with this fiction that Nate Silver doesn't know what he's doing. Nate Silver knows exactly what he's doing.

In other words, Nate Silver has reached a point in his career at which he can make a lot more money by spewing bullsh!t than he can by providing accurate, insightful, and nuanced analysis.

[/]

lel Michigan

[Sorenroy]

Just got back up and noticed Sanders has dipped below 50%. Still a substantial lead, but it looks like another state will have the winning candidate without a simple majority. Also, the remaining 29 precincts are all in Flint's county of Genesee.

[Shadows]

Green-papers is showing 69/61 to Bernie in Michigan & 32/4 to Hillary is Mississippi.

Hillary was leading by 193 Delegates before this. She is leading 213 Delegates now not 220 (if the above data is true).
 

When Dem Abroad comes up, it will 215, still pretty huge lead!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Detroit region CD results are interesting and super telling.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The Detroit region CD results are interesting and super telling.

Please tell us!

[Gass3268]

The Detroit region CD results are interesting and super telling.

Please tell us!

Results from CD5, CD13, and CD14 are not totally complete yet, but Bernie won every Congressional district expect for those 3.

CD1: Sanders 58.93% - Clinton 38.93%
CD2: Sanders 59.60% - Clinton 38.51%
CD3: Sanders 60.46% - Clinton 37.86%
CD4: Sanders 57.48% - Clinton 40.27%
CD5: Sanders 45.83% - Clinton 51.99%
CD6: Sanders 57.29% - Clinton 41.32%
CD7: Sanders 53.88% - Clinton 43.34%
CD8: Sanders 56.00% - Clinton 41.97%
CD9: Sanders 49.75% - Clinton 47.75%
CD10: Sanders 52.15% - Clinton 44.42%
CD11: Sanders 52.10% - Clinton 45.96%
CD12: Sanders 53.09% - Clinton 45.21%
CD13: Sanders 33.90% - Clinton 64.76%
CD14: Sanders 32.11% - Clinton 66.65%

Statewide Congressional Map



Detroit Area Map

[Antonio the Sixth]

So Hillary won the heavily black areas and lost everywhere else. Not exactly surprising.

Does the fact Bernie's win is so spread out help or hurt him in terms of delegates?

[Gass3268]

So Hillary won the heavily black areas and lost everywhere else. Not exactly surprising.

Does the fact Bernie's win is so spread out help or hurt him in terms of delegates?

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Democrats give more delegates to CDs with more Democrats, while Republicans distribute delegates evenly among all CDs. Clinton got 6 of the 9 delegates in CDs 13 & 14, which helped her get closer to Sanders, who did well in the rest of the state.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So, the statewide delegates split 23-22. CDs 13 & 14 are 6-3 for Hillary, while CD5 is 4-3 for her. CD12 is 4-3 for Bernie, and CD1 should be 4-2 for him (this one is close, but if the Atlas results are right that's how it should end). 9 and 11 should be split 3-3. The remaining 7 should all be 3-2 for Bernie.

That's 67-63 overall. A bit disappointing I guess, but objectively fair.

[Gass3268]

Erc has it listed as 69-61 in favor of Sanders, but I am also coming up withe the same numbers that you have. I asked him in his thread where he got his numbers.

[This account no longer in use.]

Just found this lovely picture: