Democratic MI/MS election results thread (first results @8pm ET)

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Do exit polls reflect early voting at all?

Negative, ghost rider.

Actually, they do in the general election, at least for certain states where the early vote is large:

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/early-voting-and-exit-polls/?_r=0

They do a telephone poll just before the election, and ask people if they've early voted, to try to capture the early vote portion in the exit poll.  I would assume they do that in the primaries too, but I don't know.

Thanks, Morden.  Never heard of this. 

[Fusionmunster]

[Matty]

RIP sanders.

[Likely Voter]

Has anybody been keeping track of how closely this has tracked with the Clinton and Sanders vote?

[Suburbia]

I think Clinton wins by 12 points. She dominates Wayne County.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Has anybody been keeping track of how closely this has tracked with the Clinton and Sanders vote?

Only half wanting to continue Obama policies is quote lower than it's been in a lot of recent states that asked this. 

[Eraserhead]

I think Clinton wins by 12 points. She dominates Wayne County.

I'd take that.

[Fusionmunster]

Has anybody been keeping track of how closely this has tracked with the Clinton and Sanders vote?

Only half wanting to continue Obama policies is quote lower than it's been in a lot of recent states that asked this. 

I don't believe it is.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Has anybody been keeping track of how closely this has tracked with the Clinton and Sanders vote?

Only half wanting to continue Obama policies is quote lower than it's been in a lot of recent states that asked this. 

I don't believe it is.

Last I heard is the swath of Southern states where this number was almost 3/4's.

[Holmes]

Has anybody been keeping track of how closely this has tracked with the Clinton and Sanders vote?

Only half wanting to continue Obama policies is quote lower than it's been in a lot of recent states that asked this. 

I don't believe it is.

Last I heard is the swath of Southern states where this number was almost 3/4's.

Because the South is comprised of the biggest pro-Obama voting bloc.

[Mehmentum]

Has anybody been keeping track of how closely this has tracked with the Clinton and Sanders vote?

Only half wanting to continue Obama policies is quote lower than it's been in a lot of recent states that asked this.  

I don't believe it is.

Last I heard is the swath of Southern states where this number was almost 3/4's.

Well, Iowa had more people than this wanting to continue Obama's policies, but Nevada and Massachusetts had fewer people than this wanting to continue Obama's policies.  I'm not sure how high the correlation is.

[Eraserhead]

Clinton's trustworthy numbers in MA were 54%-43% for reference. They're 58%-39% here.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Has anybody been keeping track of how closely this has tracked with the Clinton and Sanders vote?

Only half wanting to continue Obama policies is quote lower than it's been in a lot of recent states that asked this. 

I don't believe it is.

Last I heard is the swath of Southern states where this number was almost 3/4's.

Because the South is comprised of the biggest pro-Obama voting bloc.

Chyea... but that's a lot more than 50%.  I don't remember if they asked this question anywhere over the weekend.   I was getting wasted in Philly.  

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Clinton's trustworthy numbers in MA were 54%-43% for reference. They're 58%-39% here.

[bilaps]

Clinton's trustworthy numbers in MA were 54%-43% for reference. They're 58%-39% here.

Didn't those numbers had Sanders leading?

[Eraserhead]

Clinton's trustworthy numbers in MA were 54%-43% for reference. They're 58%-39% here.

Didn't those numbers had Sanders leading?

Nah, those are from the adjusted exits that give Clinton a slight lead.

[Gass3268]

Clinton's trustworthy numbers in MA were 54%-43% for reference. They're 58%-39% here.

Didn't those numbers had Sanders leading?

Nah, those are from the adjusted exits that give Clinton a slight lead.

So adjusted here for Michigan, we could be looking at a 5-7% Clinton win.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Clinton's trustworthy numbers in MA were 54%-43% for reference. They're 58%-39% here.

Didn't those numbers had Sanders leading?

Nah, those are from the adjusted exits that give Clinton a slight lead.

So adjusted here for Michigan, we could be looking at a 5-7% Clinton win.

Yeeessss.... but it's also what proportion of the vote this is.

[Mr. Morden]

[Likely Voter]

OK I did a quick check and Clinton tends to get a few more points than the 'continue' number...

State / Continue Obama / Clinton %
VA   60   64
NV   50   53
MA   45   50
OK   38   42

[Eraserhead]

OK I did a quick check and Clinton tends to get a few more points than the 'continue' number...

State / Continue Obama / Clinton %
VA   60   64
NV   50   53
MA   45   50
OK   38   42

Nice work. So a 55%-44% Clinton win, perhaps.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think we're probably looking at a 56-43 kind of result.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

If 6 in 10 did, in fact, say that is the most important quality like ABC claimed then this might be quite closer than we think.  

[Wiz in Wis]

OK I did a quick check and Clinton tends to get a few more points than the 'continue' number...

State / Continue Obama / Clinton %
VA   60   64
NV   50   53
MA   45   50
OK   38   42

Nice work. So a 55%-44% Clinton win, perhaps.

Does that account for more liberal less liberal? I'm just wondering if the more liberal folks tend to be the same ratio over less liberal, or if that varies. I would think less liberal leans Clinton, and more liberal leans Sanders.

[bilaps]

I think we're probably looking at a 56-43 kind of result.

Even Robby Mook said it's going to be tighter