Democratic MI/MS election results thread (first results @8pm ET)

[The Other Castro]

Voter turnout is reportedly very low in downtown Detroit, which isn't great for Clinton. Likewise, turnout from MSU students is basically nonexistent.

[Wiz in Wis]

Voter turnout is reportedly very low in downtown Detroit, which isn't great for Clinton. Likewise, turnout from MSU students is basically nonexistent.

Nobody lives in Downtown Detroit...

[Eraserhead]

Voter turnout is reportedly very low in downtown Detroit, which isn't great for Clinton. Likewise, turnout from MSU students is basically nonexistent.

If turnout is low in general, that's good news for Clinton.

[YPestis25]

http://www.wzzm13.com/news/politics/michigan-politics/high-voter-turnout-in-michigan-primaries/73984224

A precinct in Grand Rapids has reportedly run out of ballots.

[Beet]

I have a feeling this could end up like Massachusetts - Clinton was supposed to romp there, and it ended up being very close. That said, I think she will have a decisive win, at least 52 to 48.

[Eraserhead]

I have a feeling this could end up like Massachusetts - Clinton was supposed to romp there, and it ended up being very close. That said, I think she will have a decisive win, at least 52 to 48.

MA doesn't have many blacks though. MI does. Clinton will win by at least 10% and the margin could be much bigger than that.

[Maxwell]

I have a feeling this could end up like Massachusetts - Clinton was supposed to romp there, and it ended up being very close. That said, I think she will have a decisive win, at least 52 to 48.

MA doesn't have many blacks though. MI does. Clinton will win by at least 10% and the margin could be much bigger than that.

I also challenge the idea that Clinton was supposed to romp in Massachusetts - that's not what the numbers said at all.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I have a feeling this could end up like Massachusetts - Clinton was supposed to romp there, and it ended up being very close. That said, I think she will have a decisive win, at least 52 to 48.

No one expected Clinton to landslide in Massachusetts. Her biggest lead in the late polls was +11, and I'm not sure how many people actually believed that one.

[Beet]

+11 is what the YouGov poll has for Michigan. I'm not sure why 538 has that silly Mitchell poll weighted so high.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I have a feeling this could end up like Massachusetts - Clinton was supposed to romp there, and it ended up being very close. That said, I think she will have a decisive win, at least 52 to 48.

Um... MA was always going to be close?

I think this really is a case of margins. This is a big delegate state and a strong Clinton result will really screw Sanders leading into 15 March. I do think a 12-16% win is reasonable to expect. Anything closer than that Sanders will call a moral win, bigger than than... unlikely, but really hurts Sanders with similar states coming up.

[Mehmentum]

I have a feeling this could end up like Massachusetts - Clinton was supposed to romp there, and it ended up being very close. That said, I think she will have a decisive win, at least 52 to 48.

RCP's average in Massachusets was Clinton +6.7, it was off by about 5 points.
RCP's average in Michigan is Clinton +21.4.  There's no comparison.

The reason a lot of people though MA was going to be a blowout was because it seemed like Clinton had momentum.  Later polls were more favorable to her than earlier ones, and Clinton had just won huge in SC.  In hindsight, constructing momentum narratives out of just a few polls turned out not to be that accurate.

[Eraserhead]

To be fair, most MA polls did give Clinton a significant lead. She also crushed Obama there in '08. I thought she was going to win by a lot more than she did the day before the primary.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

+11 is what the YouGov poll has for Michigan. I'm not sure why 538 has that silly Mitchell poll weighted so high.

The weighting appears to be based solely on release time.

[Ebsy]

Tidbit from the write up on the early Republican exit polls:

On the Democratic side the contests differ substantially as well. Preliminary exit poll results suggest that turnout among blacks could be a record in Mississippi and is among the highest yet this election season, similar to South Carolina, where Hillary Clinton romped to a lopsided win. Michigan blacks make up far less of their state’s electorate – just more than two in 10 voters.


http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-republican-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=37493407

[The Other Castro]

Ryan Struyk ‏@ryanstruyk  2m2 minutes ago
Six in 10 Mississippi Democratic primary voters are black per preliminary exit poll results, which would be a record if it holds. #MSprimary

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

http://www.wzzm13.com/news/politics/michigan-politics/high-voter-turnout-in-michigan-primaries/73984224

A precinct in Grand Rapids has reportedly run out of ballots.

SEXY NEWS FOR MR. SANDERS!

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Com'on Sanders!!! Surprise us with a win!!!

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Ryan Struyk ‏@ryanstruyk  2m2 minutes ago
Six in 10 Mississippi Democratic primary voters are black per preliminary exit poll results, which would be a record if it holds. #MSprimary

6 in 10 would be a record?  That's actually surprising.

[IceSpear]

I have a feeling this could end up like Massachusetts - Clinton was supposed to romp there, and it ended up being very close. That said, I think she will have a decisive win, at least 52 to 48.

Um... MA was always going to be close?

I think this really is a case of margins. This is a big delegate state and a strong Clinton result will really screw Sanders leading into 15 March. I do think a 12-16% win is reasonable to expect. Anything closer than that Sanders will call a moral win, bigger than than... unlikely, but really hurts Sanders with similar states coming up.

MI is a state that Bernie needed to win even before he severely underperformed in the South. Which means he needs to win it even more now, and by a sizable margin. A Hillary win of any size would not be any type of victory, moral or otherwise.

[Gass3268]

Ryan Struyk ‏@ryanstruyk  2m2 minutes ago
Six in 10 Mississippi Democratic primary voters are black per preliminary exit poll results, which would be a record if it holds. #MSprimary

6 in 10 would be a record?  That's actually surprising.

That's actually good news for Trump. ConservaDems are his best group and it looks like more are now registered to vote Republican.

[Mehmentum]

20% of the electorate being African American is good for Clinton.  For reference, Virginia was at 26%.  Though to be fair Clinton also won Virginia whites by 15 points, so Michigan could very well be closer.

[bilaps]

I have a feeling this could end up like Massachusetts - Clinton was supposed to romp there, and it ended up being very close. That said, I think she will have a decisive win, at least 52 to 48.

Um... MA was always going to be close?

I think this really is a case of margins. This is a big delegate state and a strong Clinton result will really screw Sanders leading into 15 March. I do think a 12-16% win is reasonable to expect. Anything closer than that Sanders will call a moral win, bigger than than... unlikely, but really hurts Sanders with similar states coming up.

MI is a state that Bernie needed to win even before he severely underperformed in the South. Which means he needs to win it even more now, and by a sizable margin. A Hillary win of any size would not be any type of victory, moral or otherwise.

 Iowa like win tonight in Michigan would actually be very very bad for her

[Ebsy]

Mainline Democrats account for more than eight in 10 Democratic primary voters in Mississippi and seven in 10 in Michigan, with turnout among Democrats in Michigan down (and turnout among independents up) from 2008. In Mississippi, turnout among mainline Democrats is up from 2008.

Similarly, nearly twice as many voters in Mississippi trust Clinton than Sanders to handle race relations, while they’re nearly even on this in Michigan. Majorities in both states say race relations have gotten worse in the last few years.

Clinton continues to have some problems with perceptions of her honesty. In Michigan, only about six in 10 today say she’s honest and trustworthy, vs. eight in 10 who say so about Sanders. In Mississippi, she does much better, where three-quarters say she’s honest, as do seven in 10 of Sanders.

Nearly nine in 10 voters in Mississippi and eight in 10 in Michigan want the next president to be someone with experience in politics. Clinton’s won this group by more than 2-1 in this year’s previous primaries.

Majorities of voters in both states are women (reaching six in 10 in Mississippi). Women have outnumbered men across in the 2016 Democratic primaries, and have voted by 2-1 for Clinton in contests.

Turnout among liberals is up from 2008 in Mississippi and Michigan – and could end up as highs in both states.


http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-democrats-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=37493541

[IceSpear]

I have a feeling this could end up like Massachusetts - Clinton was supposed to romp there, and it ended up being very close. That said, I think she will have a decisive win, at least 52 to 48.

Um... MA was always going to be close?

I think this really is a case of margins. This is a big delegate state and a strong Clinton result will really screw Sanders leading into 15 March. I do think a 12-16% win is reasonable to expect. Anything closer than that Sanders will call a moral win, bigger than than... unlikely, but really hurts Sanders with similar states coming up.

MI is a state that Bernie needed to win even before he severely underperformed in the South. Which means he needs to win it even more now, and by a sizable margin. A Hillary win of any size would not be any type of victory, moral or otherwise.

 Iowa like win tonight in Michigan would actually be very very bad for her

Iowa is actually a great example of what I'm talking about. That was supposed to be a double digit win for Bernie based on the demographics. The fact that it was actually so close was a coup for her.

Of course, if you're arguing about media narratives and momentum, you have a point.

[7,052,770]

Mississippi colleges are on Spring Break right now, a huge blow to Sanders, who was already barely going to get any votes.

? As far as I know the four research universities are still in school. I know USM is, at least.

Let me check:

1. Mississippi State University: Not on Spring Break
2. University of Mississippi: Not on Spring Break
3. University of Southern Mississippi: Not on Spring Break
4. Jackson State University: Not on Spring Break

My mistake. Apologies to everyone.