Democratic Nevada Caucus results thread (entrance poll @2pm ET)

[DavidB.]

Screw you all, I'm going to bed.

Bed ??
It's not bed time.

In Poland it is.

[Mike Thick]

Screw you all, I'm going to bed.

Bed ??
It's not bed time.

Different time zone, my friend.

[Gass3268]

CNN The entire media really wants Bernie Hillary Clintonto win lose.

Fixed.

Not Chris Matthews.

[Zanas]

I left a few mins ago, btw

How did it end up?

My precinct was 39-31 to Bernie, so 8 delegates to 7.

The other precinct in the same room was 23-22 to Hillary, so 4 delegates to 3.

That's what makes caucus counting delegates important. Though Sanders had more votes in total, the way they split made it even in delegates. If I shifted two votes to Clinton in Joe's precinct, and two votes to Sanders in the other precinct, then Sanders comes out with a net two delegate margin, instead of even.

That's true, though the same thing can be said about any other sized constituency.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

CNN with another Bernie-spinning pundit on.
I don't think they've had anyone say a nice thing about Hillary all day long.
They also have their one camera at a caucus site at a university, which of course is dramatically for Sanders, and the woman just makes fun of the Clinton camp.  "Very lonely over there"

They just need this to be more exciting.

[Maxwell]

CNN really wants Bernie to win.

Then put on MSNBC, Chris Matthews is pushing Clinton hard.

For some reason, I feel like that should be flipped.

[This account no longer in use.]

CNN The entire media really wants Bernie Hillary Clintonto win lose.

Fixed.

And Hillbots criticize Bernbots for being conspiracy theorists.

[Adam Griffin]

[Long post]

You've also been suggesting that what happens with the demographics in one state will make or break a candidate's chances of winning the nomination. Except we're seeing that the numbers are not set in stone, and that there's some fluidity: Hillary can do worse than expected with Latinos, but she can also do better than expected with whites. And there's nothing to say that the patterns will completely repeat themselves elsewhere.

OK...? That hasn't been disproved yet.

There are two sets of numbers that have to weigh on each other: the size of each segment of the electorate, and the size of support for each candidate among each segment of the electorate. Saying "if groups a, b & c are these portions of the electorates and votes by a margin of x, y & z for a candidate, then the results will be #" is not a prediction.

I've only dealt with what is likely: I've never said "Sanders will definitely win 46% of the vote" or that "Whites will definitely be 55% of the vote". At the end of the day, whites are about 5 points less of the electorate and blacks are about 5 points less of the electorate when compared to 2008. That difference right now is making a difference of 2 points. It was never a prediction, but a pretty damn accurate estimate in terms of the final vote.

As far as the narrative I said would happen goes: you've already proven me right. You've been moaning in this thread about how the media is treating a narrow Clinton win/tie as a loss for her.

[MT Treasurer]

Looks like my 52.5-47.5 Clinton prediction was about right, maybe even too generous to Sanders.

[Lyin' Steve]

This Nulesta ad is so weird.
"My sister still needs help."
(sister looks at her) "Yeah, I do."
What's going on there?

[IceSpear]

CNN The entire media really wants Bernie Hillary Clintonto win lose.

Fixed.

Not Chris Matthews.

Ironic considering his sexist attacks against her in 08 and Obama leg tingle.

[Landslide Lyndon]

CNN The entire media really wants Bernie Hillary Clintonto win lose.

Fixed.

Not Chris Matthews.

Since when Matthews became a Hillary hack? The guy has said that she was elected senator only because people sympathized her after the Lewinsky affair.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Can the winner just be called already, I'm ready for SC.

[Adam Griffin]

CNN: "The tightness of this race breaks the narrative that Bernie Sanders cannot appeal to a diverse segment of the electorate".

@HagridOfTheDeep

[IceSpear]

CNN The entire media really wants Bernie Hillary Clintonto win lose.

Fixed.

And Hillbots criticize Bernbots for being conspiracy theorists.

I didn't realize facts could be conspiracies.

[politicallefty]

CNN really wants Bernie to win.

Then put on MSNBC, Chris Matthews is pushing Clinton hard.

I'm a Hillary supporter, but I do agree with you. I like Chris Matthews, but he is of a generation that seems to take far too much offense with the "democratic socialist" label.

[Fusionmunster]

If Hillary's margin holds up in Clark county, I think she might have an even bigger win the in 2008. But dont want to jinx myself.

[muon2]

I left a few mins ago, btw

How did it end up?

My precinct was 39-31 to Bernie, so 8 delegates to 7.

The other precinct in the same room was 23-22 to Hillary, so 4 delegates to 3.

That's what makes caucus counting delegates important. Though Sanders had more votes in total, the way they split made it even in delegates. If I shifted two votes to Clinton in Joe's precinct, and two votes to Sanders in the other precinct, then Sanders comes out with a net two delegate margin, instead of even.

That's true, though the same thing can be said about any other sized constituency.

My point is that if one counted total votes instead of total delegates the number could be quite different - in either direction. The general public sees these results as if they were the total vote, not delegates awarded precinct by precinct.

[Zanas]

The Clinton margin is ever so slowly rising, at 3.6 pts now. She's probably winning it today. But that was close. And of course the media is going to compare this closeness to where Sanders was polling at a year ago. Just as Trump on the GOP side, their arrival just proved that people badly wanted things to get shaken up.

[emailking]

CNN The entire media really wants Bernie Hillary Clintonto win lose.

Fixed.

Not Chris Matthews.

Since when Matthews became a Hillary hack? The guy has said that she was elected senator only because people sympathized her after the Lewinsky affair.

He apologized effusively for that and has very regularly said nice things about her in the time since, with nothing even approaching that level.

[Asian Nazi]

Chris Matthews is terrible, I don't care who he supports.

[IceSpear]

CNN: "The tightness of this race breaks the narrative that Bernie Sanders cannot appeal to a diverse segment of the electorate".

@HagridOfTheDeep

We already knew the media was going to spin it in favor of Bernie even if Hillary won by 10 points. They'd just say she was up by 20-30 a month ago and "blew it." The real problem for Bernie is that if he loses, he'll only have a single win in his back pocket (in his own backyard) while going into hostile territory over the next 2 weeks.

[jaichind]

Almost 80% of the precincts uncounted are in Clark County.

[Helsinkian]

Since when Matthews became a Hillary hack? The guy has said that she was elected senator only because people sympathized her after the Lewinsky affair.

Hillary Donors Helping Chris Matthews’ Wife Into Congress

[Landslide Lyndon]

Chris Matthews is terrible, I don't care who he supports.

This.